Free NFL Week 5 Picks - New England Patriots vs. Cleveland Browns

Patriots player Tom Brady in field

Nikki Adams

Tuesday, October 4, 2016 4:17 PM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 4, 2016 4:17 PM UTC

Tom Brady is back and although he catches a break with a matchup against Cleveland, how should NFL bettors approach the double-digit spread? A Fade or shade the Pats for week 5 NFL picks, is the question.

 New England Patriots (3-1SU, 1-0 away)

On the heels of their worst defeat since 1993 Tom Brady returns to the fold. As shocking and disappointing as the defeat to the Bills was, the Patriots are going to sweep it under the carpet. It’s a brand new week in the NFL and, importantly, the Patriots are a positive 3-1 SU on the season – a record few NFL pundits were willing to proffer for their preseason NFL betting predictions knowing Tom Brady would be serving a four-game suspension.

In any event, the infamous Deflategate is firmly in the rear-view mirror. Ahead is a date with the hapless Cleveland Browns, who can’t seem to catch a break no matter how hard they try. It’s the perfect matchup for Tom Brady to ease into the season.

This doesn’t mean the Browns should be underestimated. On the contrary, Hue Jackson’s side has shown a lot of fight and heart in the face of adversity. They lost choice quarterback RGIII in week 1, then Josh McCown in week 2. In week 3, rookie Cody Kessler did an admirable job and the Browns came very close to winning their first game, only for their kicker to botch the game-winning attempt. They went on to lose in overtime.

Still, a 0-4 SU record is disheartening and bound to have an impact on team ethos. Most recently, the Browns are coming off a 31-20 loss to the Redskins in which they failed to cover as the +10 road underdogs.


Patriots vs. Browns 

Everybody and their grandmother is going to be eagerly awaiting Tom Brady’s debut on the 2016 season, not just to check out his tan of course – he was sunning in Italy this past month – but to gage where he’s at physically and mentally. Last term, when Brady had his suspension overturned he led the Patriots on a furious run of ten straight wins before losing to the Denver Broncos in overtime in week 12.

If Brady comes out in similar such fashion, watch out….

Predictably, the Patriots enter this game as the overwhelming road chalk trading at -10 with most sportsbooks. NFL bettors looking to back the Patriots on their picks probably shouldn’t prevaricate and jump on some of the better lines currently on the NFL odds board

Consider Cleveland are 1-3 ATS on the season with a -10.2 losing margin on average and a -3.9 differential versus the spread. The only game that saw the Browns cover was a 30-24 loss to Miami as the +10 road underdogs. At home, the Browns are 0-1 ATS with -5 losing margin and a -1 differential versus the spread thanks to a 25-20 loss to the Ravens.

By all accounts, the Patriots are the popular consensus NFL pick and, admittedly, it’s hard to disagree with the direction the tide is flowing. As such, jump on the Patriots at -10 for your NFL week 5 picks while you still can because it’s quite likely this line will be bet up unless buyback on the Browns triggers a reverse line movement.


Free NFL Picks: Patriots -10 (-115) 
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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