Free NFL Week 4 Picks - Best Value On Board

Minnesota Vikings players celebrating

Saturday, October 1, 2016 3:57 PM GMT

No J.J. Watt. No Problem. The Texans defense still holds a big edge over the Titans offense. Ditto with the Vikings against the Giants. The two lead our best NFL Week 4 picks.

 

Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans

After peaking as high as -7 midweek, the line on the Titans-Texans clash is back down to its initial offering of 4.5 points in favor of Houston after news of J.J. Watt injured (back) for the contest. Bookmakers suggest the three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year  is worth roughly 1.5 points to the spread, which is as high as any defensive player in the NFL (the Panthers’ Luke Kuechly is worth about 1 point). Watt’s absence snaps 86-consecutive games played streak.

Is the market overreacting? Probably. The Titans are still a team that is just 3-6 SU and ATS on the road under head coach Mike Mularkey, scoring just 18.5 points per game in regulation time. Defensively, they’re yielding 24.1 points per game. If Watts’ injury somehow makes the two units even, then the edge on offense and in coaching still belong to the Texans. Head coach Bill O’Brien and most of his staff are all Patriots alum and will cope accordingly.

The Texans are 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS as home chalk under O’ Brien, winning by 9.4 points on average. All 10 wins have come by 6 points or more. Watt or no Watt we’ll lay a dead number in this spot for our NFL week 4 predictions.

 

Free NFL Pick: Texans -4.5
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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New York Giants vs. Minnesota Vikings

The Giants are moving the ball effectively, averaging 6.3 yards per play (fifth in the NFL) and 396.7 total yards per game (sixth). But uncovering points is a different matter. Quarterback Eli Manning and company enter scoring .332 points per play, ranking 20th in efficiency. They average 21.0 points per game. A road game against the best defense in the NFC is not the ideal spot to rectify the problem.

Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer is a defensive guru and punishes below par offenses. Since taking over, his unit allows 18.6 points per game to offenses scoring below the league average (22.8). In fact, his defense has held opposing teams to below their projected team total in the betting market in 12 of 14 games in this situation.

Minnesota is 10-0 and 9-1 ATS at U.S. Bank Stadium as chalk under Zimmer. It’s taken the lead into halftime in seven of these contests. Since 2012, the Giants are 2-16 SU and 4-13-1 ATS when tied or trailing headed into the third quarter away from MetLife Stadium. Expect Manning to chase the game late if behind, going to the air a lot and becoming one-dimensional. The Vikes’ defense will take advantage accordingly.

 

Free NFL Pick: Vikings -4
Best Line Offered: at Heritage, an A+ rated sportsbooks at SBR
SBR record YTD: 123-88-6 (avg. odds -104); 2016-17 NFL: 17-6 (avg. odds -105)

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