After going 2-1 on three NFL OVER picks last week, with two very easy winners, we go looking for more this week. Where will the points flow wild and free for Week 10?
Bucs, Cowboys Clash in Tampa
Tampa, coming off a 32-18 loss to the Giants, hosts Dallas, coming off an overtime loss to Philadelphia.
The Bucs only averaged 16 points per game through their first three games with their rookie starter at quarterback, and consequently two of those games played UNDER on the NFL odds. But as Jameis Winston has made some progress, and cut down on the picks, Tampa has averaged 26 PPG, and played four OVERS, in its last five games.
The Bucs are also running the ball, to the tune of 132 yards per game. And a good running game is a quarterback's best friend.
Dallas, meanwhile, is 3-3 on the totals this season without quarterback Tony Romo, averaging 19 PPG, while giving up 28 PPG. But the Cowboys have also gotten two 100-yard rushing performances from running back Darren McFadden over the last three weeks, and WR Dez Bryant just caught five balls for 104 yards in his return from injury last week against Philly.
We can see this game getting to 20-20, and we'll take our chances from there.
Saints, 'Skins Tangle in DC
Two teams who combined to give up 61 points last week meet as Washington hosts New Orleans.
The Redskins had played two OVERS in a row but let us down last week, only scoring 10 points in a loss at New England. Prior to that, though, Washington games had averaged 48 points over the previous six weeks. The 'Skins are struggling a bit on offense, which means Kirk Cousins has thrown the ball at least 40 times each of the last five games. And that would figure to be good news for the OVER, whether he's completing passes, getting sacked or throwing interceptions.
Also, the Washington defense ranks 29th in league against the run, allowing 133 YPG.
Meanwhile, New Orleans has scored at least 27 points each of its last four games, while allowing at least 34 in three of its last five contests. The Saints lead the league in total offense, and rank 31st in total defense. Also, while we sometimes think of New Orleans as a “dome” team, built for speed on fast indoor surfaces, with the controlled conditions so amenable to the passing game, it's 2-0 on the OVERS on the road outdoors this season.
Free NFL Totals Pick: Saints-'Skins OVER 50 at Heritage
Eagles-'Fins Face-Off in Philly
Philadelphia, whose offense seems to be clicking in recent weeks, hosts Miami, who's defense definitely is not.
The Eagles just put 33 on Dallas in an overtime victory last week, racking up 460 yards of offense, giving up 410. So after a slow start Philly is averaging 29 PPG over its last four outings.
But the Eagles also rank dead last in the league in average time-of-possession, and that puts pressure on a defense that's on the field for more than 33 minutes per game.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins, after a promising start under their interim head coach, have reverted back to what they were doing earlier this season; losing games in ugly fashion. Miami beat Tennessee and Houston back-to-back a few weeks ago 38-10 and 44-26, but the last two weeks has lost to New England and Buffalo, giving up a total of 69 points in those two games.
The Dolphins rank 13th in total offense, but a disappointing 25th in total defense.
Philly should be able to run the ball against Miami, perhaps build a lead, which would mean the Dolphins might have to throw the ball while playing catch-up. And that also sounds like good news for an OVER, whether Miami QB Ryan Tannehill is hitting his own receivers, or perhaps guys in green jerseys.
Free NFL Totals Pick: Eagles-Dolphins OVER 49 at Pinnacle