Free NFL Total Picks Week 3 - San Diego Chargers vs Indianapolis Colts

San Diego Chargers Player Flexes his muscles

Sunday, September 25, 2016 4:21 PM GMT

There's only one 50-plus total on Sunday's NFL odds board, and it's at Lucas Oil Field, where the Indianapolis Colts have a late matinee with the San Diego Chargers.

That is much more like it. All three of our NFL picks against the total cashed in last week, including both our contrarian UNDER picks versus the highest totals on the board. We've already dealt individually with this week's highest number; Monday night's game between the Atlanta Falcons and the New Orleans Saints opened at 53.5 points and is still sitting there at press time, presumably waiting for the public to jump in and pound the OVER. We presume.

There's only one other big total in Week 3, and we hope that one gets bigger, too. The Indianapolis Colts host the San Diego Chargers Sunday afternoon (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS); this game opened at 50.5 and immediately climbed as high as 52, thanks to unanimous OVER support from early bettors. Alas, the total has since fallen back to 51, despite our consensus reports still showing 62 percent of bettors on the OVER.
 

51 Flavors
If we presume a bit more, this could be the sign of some sharp UNDER money. Casual fans tend to make smaller wagers, which can put you in a situation where most of the action is coming from a minority of deep-pocketed bettors. Also, 51 is a magic number when it comes to totals; only 37 and 41 pop up more often as the final combined score. Let's hope the public comes in en masse and bets this total back up to 52 again.

Having said that, we can't recommend more than a small wager on the UNDER. Both teams in this matchup have performed well on offense and poorly on defense. Football Outsiders have San Diego ranked No. 2 and No. 20, respectively, while Indianapolis checks in at No. 10 and No. 31 after two games. The OVER is 2-0 for both clubs, go figure.

We're not going to deviate from our program, though. The UNDER is the right default play against the biggest totals on the NFL odds board; it's just a question of whether you pull the trigger, and for how much. Colts QB Andrew Luck has been limited in practice with a sore shoulder, and WR T.Y. Hilton sat out Friday's practice with a balky knee, so that helps our cause somewhat. And the Chargers don't expect TE Antonio Gates (hamstring) to play Sunday. Too bad there isn't some kind of pill or shot Gates could take to heal more quickly.

Remember to drop by SBR's list of the best-ranked bonuses, and find out which of the top sportsbooks is offering the top rated sportsbooks.

Record: 5-2 ATS, 3-2 Totals

Free NFL Pick: UNDER 51 (–105)
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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