NFL First-and-10: Andy Dalton Will Air It Out Coming Off A Bye

Jordan Sharp

Saturday, November 10, 2018 9:57 PM UTC

Saturday, Nov. 10, 2018 9:57 PM UTC

Week 10 is here at last and there are several player prop picks worth buying a ticket for. All of these odds come from Bet365 sportsbook.

Season Props Record: 42-38

We had our roughest week of prop betting in Week 9 going 3-7 in our 10 prop picks. It’s the first big loss we’ve had all season though, and after a couple mediocre and rough weeks, I’m ready for the reset button in Week 10, and we’re looking to the Bengals’ offense to start us off right.

Andy Dalton OVER 37.5 Pass Attempts (-125)

Coming off a bye week, the Bengals should be ready to air it out against the Saints. They are +5 home dogs with a total of 54, which is easily the highest of the week. In a game script that screams passing, the Bengals’ QB should be targeting his pass catchers with great frequency. Not only does it looks like the Bengals could be playing from behind, the Saints are allowing an average of 40 pass attempts per game in their last five contests.

[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "

Nobody's getting the ball out faster than Andy Dalton this year. pic.twitter.com/bYTmTmlr9I

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) 7 de novembro de 2018
\n"}[/]

Andy Dalton OVER 294.5 Passing Yards (-125)

Not only are the Saints giving up a ton of pass attempts in their games, but they have given up some big chunks of yardage too. New Orleans has allowed 359 pass yards or more in four of their eight games this season, and if the Saints grab the league early at Paul Brown Stadium, Dalton is going to be throwing all over the place. It’s tough without A.J. Green this week, but I think Tyler Boyd, C.J. Uzomah, and John Ross will fill the void nicely.

Marcus Mariota OVER 26.5 Rushing Yards (-125)

The Patriots’ defense has given up some yardage and points to opposing quarterbacks, but instead of trusting the arm of Marcus Mariota in his home matchup with the Patriots, I prefer to trust his legs. Mariota has ran for 25 rushing yards or more in five of his last six games, and four of his seven games he’s rushed for 32 or more yards. On top of that, the Patriots have allowed nearly 200 rushing yards to quarterbacks already this season, which is third highest in the league.

Mark Ingram OVER 53.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

Last week Mark Ingram didn’t get much run because of a lost fumble. Instead it was Alvin Kamara getting more run on first and second down in the second half. However, this week against the Bengals, Ingram could be used heavily if he can hang onto the ball. Before getting just nine carries and essentially being benched last week, Ingram had three straight good weeks. He is also up against a Bengals defense that has allowed 122.5 rushing yards per game over the last six weeks.

Josh Doctson UNDER 40.5 Receiving Yards (-125)

Even though Jamison Crowder is out again in Week 10, Josh Doctson has not shown much upside in his expanded role. The third year former first round pick is averaging just 5.42 yards per target this season, and with Jordan Reed still the main weapon in a low volume pass attack, Docston could all under the 40 yard mark. Even though the Bucs are awful defensively, they looked good last week against the Panthers’ passing game.

Kenny Stills UNDER 42.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

If DeVante Parker is back as one of the main passing weapons for the Dolphins, Kenny Stills will be the one who misses out on some targets and yardage. Parker didn’t do much in Week 9, but that could change in Week 10 against the Packers. Even though the Packers can’t stop passing offenses at all this season, the Dolphins are reliant on their running game to win against a team like Green Bay. It’s all over for Miami if they get into a passing battle with Aaron Rodgers and they know this. Look for them to keep it on the ground in what could be one of the first true cold weather weeks in Green Bay.

Michael Gallup UNDER 35.5 Receiving Yards (-139)

Now that Amari Cooper is in Dallas, Dak Prescott has a high profile target to throw to. Combined with Cole Beasley and Allen Hurns and the Cowboys have plenty of targets. With a run first offense as well, the NFL Odds for Michael Gallup seem to be a little more bullish from Bet365. Take a shot on the under and hope that Prescott has some lower passing volume against the Eagles.

Zach Ertz OVER 66.5 Receiving Yards (-125)

On the flip side of Sunday Night Football is Zach Ertz. The Cowboys have been pretty good against tight ends this season, but considering Ertz’s upside and his high target volume from Caron Wentz, he could have a big game at home. IN his four home games this season, Ertz has 29 catches on 42 targets. He is averaging 92 yards per game at home and after a down week, Ertz is a nice value pick for the over.

Mike Evans UNDER 5.5 Receptions (-111)

With the Washington Redskins sporting a daunting new secondary after the acquisition of Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Mike Evans faces opposition on both sides Sunday. Not only will the Skins’ defense be keying in on him, but his quarterback situation has been one of the rockiest of any high profile receiver this season. Combined with Evans coming off a game with one catch on 10 targets, I think six or more catches is a little lofty.

Corey Davis UNDER 4.5 Receptions (+100)

The Titans’ pass offense has seen better days, and while the Patriots have not been as tough on the defensive end this season, I suspect New England will want to keep Mariota contained. They don’t really care too much for the rushing attack, but if Mariota is moving the ball, they are in trouble. With this in mind, I think they will chose to take away Corey Davis, one of Mariota’s more reliable weapons. If they can keep him under five catches, it’s going to pay off nicely for yours truly.

comment here