Week 12 is here at last and there are several player prop picks worth buying a ticket for. All of these odds come from Bet365 sportsbook.
Season Props Record: 59-51
Even though we lost our big title-game pick last week on Jameis Winston, we had a great week of prop betting outside of that pick, going 6-4 overall in our 10 plays from Week 12. It’s lucky Week 13 and bet365 has another big crop of nice value plays on certain players.
Lamar Miller UNDER 86.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards (-111)
After ripping off 162 yards on the ground in Week 12 Lamar Miller is coming into Week 13 with some inflated NFL Odds for his rushing and receiving yards. Miller had a 97-yard run last week to bolster his numbers, but the Browns have been quietly improving against the run over the last three weeks. Cleveland has given up just 99 and 55 rushing yards respectfully over their last two. Miller isn’t very involved in the passing game, but if the Browns can keep him from breaking off any 90-yard runs, I like the under here with Alfred Blue getting seven or eight carries too. At some point the Texans will realize they need Miller to be fresh in the playoffs and with a cupcake schedule the rest of the way and a two-game lead in the division, I don’t see Miller getting 25 carries, or maybe even 15 in this one.
Tom Brady UNDER 300.5 Passing Yards (-111)
It’s hard betting against the greatest of all time, but this week is a nice spot to do it in a game that should be defined by time of possession. Both offenses have the ability to score in bunches, but the Vikings’ pass defense has been pretty fierce this season. Over their last four games the Vikings have held down some really good QBS, and they should hold Brady under 300 passing yards as well.
Deshaun Watson UNDER 245.5 Passing Yards (-111)
Deshaun Watson has put up some big passing games lately with 10 passing TDs and only 2 picks over his last four games. However, he is averaging just 23 pass attempts per game over his last six, and potentially this game will be won on the ground for the Texans. Keeping their defense fresh and running the ball will be key for a home win in this game, so I don’t expect the Texans to open it up much through the air.
Tevin Coleman UNDER 47.5 Rushing Yards (-125)
Tevin Coleman blew up in every one of his backer’s faces last week and with the Falcons having to play from behind so much, the rushing attempts for Coleman have just not been there. If the Ravens jump on the Falcons early on the road, I could see Atlanta abandoning the run game. Added in the fact that Baltimore’s run defense is extremely good and you have a nice fade opportunity for Coleman coming off his worst game of the season.
Christian McCaffrey OVER 72.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
There is very little Christian McCaffrey can’t do, and he has proved that time and again this season. The Panthers’ young back has a juicy matchup this week heading out on the road against the Bucs, and he could once again have a huge game. The Bucs’ run defense gave up 139 rushing yards to the 49ers last week, and the week before that they let Saquon Barkley and the Giants run all over them for more than that. I expect at least 80 to 85 rushing yards from McCaffrey in a positive game script.
Greg Olsen OVER 50.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Greg Olsen has been nowhere to be found over the Panthers’ last two games, but I have a feeling that could change this week against Tampa Bay. The last time the Panthers played the Bucs, Olsen caught all six of his targets for 76 yards and a touchdown. The Bucs have allowed an average of 72 receiving yards per game to tight ends this season too. While I don’t think Olsen will have that big of a turnaround, 55 or 60 receiving yards on five or six catches is a good bet to me.
A.J. Green UNDER 70.5 Receiving Yards (-139)
Not only has A.J. Green not played a down of professional football since October, he is coming back in Week 13 without his starting quarterback. I don’t think Jeff Driskel is going to be bad by any means. I actually think he could have a pretty good game. The problem is they have had little practice time together ever, and Green is coming off a multiple week injury. The chemistry questions and quarterback speculation are enough to bet the under for Green’s receiving yards.
Kyle Rudolph OVER 39.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
One of our six winning tickets last week was on Kyle Rudolph and I am going right back to the well with a play on his receiving yards against the Pats. We got the over on his at 36.5 yards last week and with hoe bad the Pats are against tight ends, he may be closer to 50 yards when it’s all over. The Patriots have allowed an average of 63.8 receiving yards per game to tight ends this season. On top of that, over their last seven games, the Patriots’ defense has allowed 583 yards (83 per game) and six touchdowns to the tight end position.
Kyle Rudolph OVER 3.5 Receptions (-125)
Why not take advantage of a good thing in Rudolph for a second AND third time this season? Considering the Pats are allowing nearly seven receptions per game to tight ends over their last seven games, hammer this line too along with Rudolph’s receiving yards.Antonio Brown OVER 6.5 Receptions (-139)
Apparently, someone got to these odds before we could, because despite how good the Chargers’ defense has been against receivers this season, Antonio Brown’s reception total is way too low for this one. In a game that could feature a lot of passing, seven or even eight catches is more reasonable. The chalk is there for a reason, and it’s because 6.5 is too low.