NFL Week 12 First-And-10: Bucs’ Quarterback Is Overvalued By Bet365

Jordan Sharp

Saturday, November 24, 2018 9:45 PM UTC

Saturday, Nov. 24, 2018 9:45 PM UTC

Week 12 is here at last and there are several player prop picks worth buying a ticket for. All of these odds come from Bet365 sportsbook.

Season Props Record: 53-47

We may be coming off our Thanksgiving Day hangovers, but there is football to handicap still! We were blessed with some outstanding games on Thursday and Sunday is no different. Follow along as we try to cash some winning tickets in Week 12’s NFL Prop Picks.

Jameis Winston UNDER 288.5 Passing Yards (-120)

The Bucs’ quarterback carousel continues this week with the return of Jameis Winston to the starting lineup. It may be an upgrade, but not if Winston’s head isn’t in the game. If he is throwing into double coverage and trying to force the ball to Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson, he may be back on the bench before the day is over. The Niners’ defense isn’t that fierce, but they have given up less than 190 passing yards in each of their last two games, so Winston may find it hard to get to 289 or more.

LeSean McCoy UNDER 50.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

I’m all for LeSean McCoy still ripping off 100-yard games on the ground, but this week against the Jaguars that likely will stop. The weather is actually looking pretty good in Buffalo for Sunday’s game, which is pretty crazy at this point of the season. Even though the Bills swill try to rely on McCoy, the Jags’ defense knows this coming in. Jacksonville absolutely shut down James Conner and the Pittsburgh running game last week, and they did the same to the Colts and Eagles in their two games prior to that.

LeSean McCoy UNDER 72.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards (-120)

With the Jags’ defense holding down McCoy, I could see him ending up with less than 50 total yards in this one. Stacked boxes with even some safeties shading down to stop McCoy in the passing game, there just isn’t much of a pathway to beat this defense. I do think the return of Josh Allen is going to really help this passing game, but the Jags are giving up only about 30 receiving yards per game to running backs, so McCoy has a tough mountain to climb either way.

Aaron Jones UNDER 65.5 Rushing Yards (+100)

I work with some Aaron Jones truthers, so they might not be too happy with me upon reading this. However, on the road against an opposing Vikings rush defense is not the best matchup for Jones on the ground. His total yards prop is another story, but I think fading his ground yards total of 65.5 at even money is a no-brainer. The Vikings have allowed an average of just 75.6 rushing yards per game this year, and in games they won, that average drops to 59.4 rushing yards per game.

Matt Breida OVER 86.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards (-125)

Matt Breida probably doesn’t get enough credit for how good he is. He’s playing on a bad team that was made worse by the loss of their very expensive (and alleged sex machine) starting quarterback. However, Breida went off last week against the Giants for 132 yards from scrimmage. He could easily do that again in Week 12 against the Bucs’ defense and a good game script. The Bucs’ defense is giving up an average of 4.2 yards per carry to opposing backs this season, and they have given up the 10th-most receiving yards to running backs as well.

Dede Westbrook UNDER 45.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

Now that Leonard Fournette is back for the Jaguars, their need to throw the ball drops even more. Dede Westbrook could find his services being used less and less as the Jags buckle down their offense. This could be especially true against the Bills. One of Buffalo’s strengths this season has been their pass defense. Over their last four games, they have given up less than 100 receiving yards per game to wide receivers.

Alshon Jeffery OVER 56.5 Receiving Yards (-125)

The Eagles may be coming off getting their asses kicked all over the field last week, but that doesn’t mean they are incapable of bouncing back this week against the lowly Giants. The Giants’ secondary has also been showing some more holes as of late. Over their last five games the Giants’ secondary has given up 73 catches for 954 yards and 5 touchdowns to opposing receivers, and that includes Jeffery’s two-touchdown performance against them in Week 6.

Kyle Rudolph OVER 35.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

In Week 2 the Vikings dominated the Packers’ secondary through the air. Pretty much everyone had a big game, including Kyle Rudolph. The Vikings’ tight end collected 72 yards on 7/8 targets that week, and while the Packers have been pretty good against tight ends this season, they also haven’t had that many good ones to game plan for. That will change this week with the Vikings playing at home, where Rudolph is averaging over 10 yards per catch and 7.75 yards per target.

Adam Thielen OVER 88.5 Receiving Yards (-125)

Adam Thielen may have posted a couple of duds over his last two games. Kuddos to those of you who faded him. However, after one of the more impressive starts of any receiver ever in the history of football, Week 12 may be the week that we need to jump back on the Thielen Express. The Packers have been horrendous against receivers this season, and their secondary has given up 57 receptions for 765 yards and 4 touchdowns over their last four games alone. That doesn’t even mention the 282 yards they gave up to the Vikings’ wide receivers in Week 2. Prepare for another big game from Thielen this week.

Kenny Stills To Score A Touchdown (+225)

Usually touchdown props aren’t my game. I’ve lost too much cash on them in the past to know better. However, the return of Ryan Tannehill has gone somewhat underreported with the American holiday weekend, and it could mean the difference for one Kenneth Stills. The Dolphins’ speedster had three touchdowns in the first three weeks of the season, and he has posted 18 touchdowns courtesy of Tannehill since 2016. It’s worth a shot at +225 odds.

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