Season Props Record: 75-73
After a horrific Week 15 of NFL Prop Picks, we bounced back well in Week 16, winning five of our eight picks on the week. With all the news, injuries, resting, and tanking going on in the final week of the regular season, this is another limited week volume-wise. However, there is still a ton of value coming from the sportsbooks.
Josh Johnson hasn’t put up overwhelming passing numbers since taking over under center after the Alex Smith injury. However, that could very well change this week against the pretty soft Eagles secondary. Even though Johnson doesn’t have 300-yard upside in this game, 200 should be easily attainable against Philly. The Eagles have allowed an average of 378 passing yards per game, so 200 passing yards isn’t asking much from Johnson at home.
The league has flexed the Colts and Titans to Sunday Night Football and it’s a win-and-you’re-in game from Nashville. Andrew Luck has never lost to the Titans in his career. He threw for nearly 300 yards in his first meeting at home with the Titans this season. In his last trip to Nashville he threw for 353 yards in a 34-26 win back in 2016. I could once again see him going for close to 300 in a win or go home game for both teams.
The last time Deshaun Watson played the Jaguars, he did not get much traction on the ground or through the air. However, with the Jags’ season in the toilet since October, this could be a renewed opportunity for Watson to accumulate a ton of yards on the ground. The Jags’ defense has allowed more than five yards per carry this season to opposing quarterbacks, and Watson has been running the ball more lately. The young Texans’ quarterback has rushed 33 times for 210 yards over his last five games. That’s an average of 42 rushing yards per game.
Gus Edwards has been a monster for the Ravens since Lamar Jackson took over of this run-option offense. However, the Browns’ defense has been much better over the last three weeks against the run and if that continues on Sunday, Edwards could find himself rushing for only minimal gains. The Browns have allowed only 3.15 yards per carry over their last three games, so I doubt Edwards gets many long runs. Kenneth Dixon and Jackson will also both get work on the ground, so I doubt Edwards sees 20 carries.
In Week 16 Rashard Higgins racked up six catches on seven targets and 60 receiving yards for the Browns’ offense. In a big game to try to deny a playoff spot to a divisional rival, and to ensure a winning season, I could see the Browns trying to air it out against Baltimore. If Higgins gets similar target volume as last week, the over should be easy money.
If Josh Johnson is going to throw for more than 200 yards, I suspect it will be Jamison Crowder who sees the most volume in a low-volume pass attack. Crowder has been solid since Johnson took over under center, capping last week off with 78 yards on seven targets. He may not have a ton of upside, but one 30-yard catch might make the difference in this game, and in our prop bets on Crowder and Johnson.