Season Props Record: 68-62
We ended up with a rare losing week in Week 14 with a 4-6 prop total thanks to some of our picks coming within one or two yards or cashing either way. However, I am no deterred from releasing my 10 best prop picks for Week 15, courtesy of Bet365.
Matt Ryan may be facing off against one of the more feared passing defenses in the NFL this week, but he should still have plenty opportunity for pass attempts if the Cardinals’ offense doesn’t come to play. Ryan has posted big passing volume from time to time this season, including nine games of 285 yards or more. He is averaging nearly 39 pass attempts per game this season, so if he sees that volume, 265 or more yards should be attainable.
Kirk Cousins and the Vikings’ offense has put up a pair of duds over their last two games, but on the road against the Patriots and Seahawks are not easy games. However, back at home and with the softer Dolphins’ secondary coming to town, I see Cousins breaking out of his slump. He is averaging around 273 yards per game at home, but he has also thrown for more than 340 yards in two of his last three home games. The Dolphins have also given up 300-plus yard passing games in two of their last three.
The Colts have been pretty fair against quarterbacks this season, but they are also giving up more than four yards per carry to quarterbacks as well. With the Cowboys’ offensive line back and playing well, Prescott has some potential to run the ball a few times against the Colts. Prescott hasn’t needed to use his legs as much over the last few weeks, but he is obviously a capable runner. He’s averaging over 4.5 yards per carry this season, and I’m betting on him breaking off a few nice runs against the Colts.
In their first game against one another in Week 1, the Bears didn’t use Tarik Cohen as much against the Packers. However, over the last several weeks, Cohen has seen his snap rate and usage increase. It should be more of the same this time around against Green Bay. Cohen has touched the ball 33 times over the last two weeks and if that continues, 76 or more all-purpose yards should be easily in the cards.
Adam Thielen OVER 84.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Much like the Vikings’ offense over the last two weeks, Adam Thielen has not been at his best over the last two weeks. Much like I think there will be a turnaround for the Vikings and Cousins, I see Thielen taking advantage of the Dolphins’ secondary. Miami has allowed more than 207 yards per game to opposing receivers over their last three weeks. Thielen should have no problem racking up catches now that he’s back at home.
Kyle Rudolph OVER 36.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Here we go again with the Vikings’ offensive rebound! We have gone 2-1 this season on our guy Kyle Rudolph. Even though he too has seen his stats take a dip over the last two weeks, he could also break out of his slump if Cousins is throwing the pigskin with a little more consistency. The Dolphins allowed over 100 yards to tight ends last week against the Pats in that crazy win. Miami has allowed almost 54 yards per game to tight ends this season as well.
The Baltimore Ravens have been one of the league’s best defenses this year. However, if there is one weakness they do have on defense, it’s their ability to slow down opposing tight ends. We have tried to take advantage of this in the past few weeks, and it’s time to trust the process once again. The Ravens have allowed 66 yards per game to tight ends this season and over their last seven games, that number goes up to 71 receiving yards per game. This makes Cameron Brate a great value.
On a similar note for tight ends, Evan Engram has several things going for himself this week. With Odell Beckham out for a second straight week, chances are Eli Manning is going to have his eyes Engram’s way a lot in their game against the Titans. Tennessee has been one of the best teams in the league against tight ends, but if the Giants are down in this game, I expect Engram to see plenty of volume to cash the over for us.
Taywan Taylor OVER 42.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Taywan Taylor has shown some nice upside over the last two weeks for the Titans and if that is a sign of things to come for this team, the over on his yards total against the Giants is a steal of a value. New York has done well to keep opposing receivers out of the end zone this season, but they give up a ton of yards in the process. New York is allowing opposing receivers to post an average of 164 yards over their last eight games.
DeAndre Hopkins OVER 6.5 Receptions (+120)
Our underdog play of the week is not even an underdog. DeAndre Hopkins and the Texans have a great matchup against the Jets on Saturday and a play on Hopkins’ receptions is easy money. Nuke has racked up 22 targets over his last two games and even though he hasn’t been able to convert those into catches, I see him and Deshaun Watson connecting for a lot of catches in Week 15.