Season Props Record: 70-70
It was our second bad week in arrow for Week 15 and boy, was it bad. We cashed only a pair of our 10 picks for easily our worst week of the season. It’s been bad news for the last two weeks for us, ruining our profit margin and putting us in the red for the first time this season. However, with two more regular season weeks and a month’s worth of playoff action, we have more than enough time to get back in the black.
Drew Brees may have started to throw the ball less down field, but it has not slowed down Alvin Kamara’s work in the receiving game. He has seen 26 targets over the Saints’ last three games and that will not slow-down in Week 16. I expect another game where Kamara is a key option for Brees in the short game as the Saints try to control the time of possession.
On a similar vein to his receiving yards, Kamara is a great bet to have five or more catches in this game as well. Even though the Steelers have been pretty good at preventing running backs from exceling in the pass game, Kamara is a different talent from most of the teams the Steelers have faced this season.
We got cooked by going with the over too much in Week 15, but this line is too good to pass up. Marlon Mack and the Colts should theoretically be playing with the lead for most of the game and with Ryan Kelly back at center for the Colts, Mack should have even more running room against this defense. A week after Derrick Henry ran all over the G-Men, I see Mack going for between 70 and 80 yards on the ground.
Even with the quarterback change to Nick Foles for the Eagles, Darren Sproles still has a lot of upside on the receiving end of things on Sunday. The Texans’ pass attack should have no problem moving the ball on the Eagles and even as home favorites, there is a chance this game turns into a shootout. Sproles should be good for three to four catches and 20-plus receiving yards.
In the Colts’ surprise shutout of the Cowboys last week, Eric Ebron was seldomly used. He only saw three targets and one reception for a total of 8 yards. Ebron has arguably been the league’s best tight end, but that has been his production in the end zone. I could see the Colts following a similar game plan this week in a game where they are double-digit home favorites. Running the ball will be their game plan Sunday, so Ebron could see limited targets for a second straight week. The Giants have also allowed an average of just 21.6 yards to tight ends over their last three games.
In three of the last four weeks fading Michael Thomas has been the bet to make in the Saints games. With Mark Ingram running the ball well and Kamara playing well in the pass game, the volume has not been there for Thomas in the last six weeks. He is averaging just eight targets per game over his last six games and I don’t think that will be enough to get him that close to 90 receiving yards.
David Moore and the Seahawks may be playing one of the worst defenses in NFL history, but that won’t change their game plan and suddenly make Russell Wilson throw the ball 45 times. With Doug Baldwin healthy and Tyler Lockett playing well, Moore is the third receiver in one of the lowest volume pass attacks in the league. I doubt he gets 20 receiving yards, assuming he doesn’t catch anything deep and with space. I’m betting against that, even against the Chiefs.
Tyreek Hill hasn’t done much in two of the Chiefs’ last three games but that could change this week, even against the Seahawks’ defense. Seattle got torched by George Kittle last week, but they have overall been beaten by wide receivers lately. Over their last eight games the Seahawks have allowed nearly 173 yards per game to wide receivers and Hill should be able to exploit that in a pretty positive game script.