Free NFL Picks: Will Sleeping Giants Crush Patriots' Dreams Again?

Nikki Adams

Friday, November 13, 2015 1:54 PM GMT

Can the Patriots beat the Giants on Sunday? Join us as we preview this highly anticipated clash between Tom Brady and Eli Manning, complete with NFL picks.

A Recipe of Success: New England Patriots (8-0 SU, 3-0 away)
When a team clearly has a recipe of success and is sat pretty with an 8-0 SU record such as the Patriots, it seems a bit naff to pose the question: can they beat the Giants? If there’s one thing the Patriots have proven this season it’s that they are on a mission, a post deflate-gate mission to set the record straight. Inflated balls. Deflated balls. Whatever. They can play football.

They’ve steamrolled through the schedule with an unassuming verve and swagger, outscoring opponents 276-to-143, which yields an average of 34.5-points scored and 17.9-points allowed. They are one of three teams left in the NFL to go undefeated through the first nine weeks of the season –only the Panthers and Bengals have matched this run –, but of this triplet NFL betting analysts are only calling for the Patriots to go a staggering 16-0 SU this season. Not to mention, they are the Super Bowl 50 favourites across sports betting platforms to successfully defend their title when all is said and done.

Tom Brady ranks third in total passing yards with 2709 yards, but the 37-year-old starter leads the NFL with 22 touchdown passes and just two interceptions through 8 games. All of which combines for a top passer rating of 113.5 and an elite offense that is amongst the top five in the league. New England ranks fifth in total offense, largely down to the third best passing offense.

All this conspires to send the Patriots into week 10 as the considerable road chalk. They are trading around the -350 mark in straight up betting and installed as the 7-to7.5-point favourites against the spread.

So how can there be any doubt about the Patriots winning this game, you may be wondering. Well, here’s the thing, and it’s pretty significant, so pay close attention…wait for it…drumroll….the Giants are the ONLY team the Patriots haven’t beaten since the start of 2008. True story.

Hmmm… let’s leave that to marinate for a bit.

 

Spoiling the Recipe: New York Giants (5-4, 3-1 home)
After a dreadful start on the season with back-to-back losses to the Cowboys and Falcons, both featuring complete and utter collapses in the dying minutes of the game, the Giants seem to have righted the ship. Reeling off five wins in the ensuing seven games, three straight at home, to take over top spot in the NFC East behind a 5-4 SU mark.

New York media was ruthless in its commentary of the G-men in the first two weeks of the season, particularly saving some choice words for Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin. Abuse-hurling headlines shrieked from the covers of many publications, such as the NY Post which ran with the headline: ‘Giants lost because Eli Manning can’t count. The $84M Dope,’ complete with images of the two-time champion wearing a dunce hat and looking rather glum.

That was then. The Giants bounced back with wins over Washington and Buffalo to level the season on a 2-2 SU mark and then went on to defeat the Niners, lose to divisional rivals Eagles, get vindication over Dallas, lose a shootout in New Orleans and win over the Jaguars on the road.

None of this has mollified NY media. It’s apparent that the G-men are not without issues, particularly when it comes to their defense standing up to potent offenses. Case-and-point: The 600-plus yards they ceded to the Saints.

So it comes as no surprise that the Giants enter this home game as the significant underdogs. Neither is it surprising that few are buying what they are selling.

However tangible their season is, the intangibles count too. That is, Eli Manning is 3-0 SU against Tom Brady, including two Super Bowl wins (2008 and 2012). Eli Manning crashed Tom Brady and Bill Belichick’s party when they derailed the perfect 2007 season by the Patriots in the most unlikely Super Bowl win. Four years later, he did it again. Leading his 9-7 SU Giants to the dramatic Super Bowl XLVI win over the Patriots.

 

NFL Betting Verdict: Does the NFL betting outlook look familiar? It should. It has familiar overtures of past meetings between Tom Brady and Eli Manning, where the former’s side were considerable favourites in each of the three meetings only for the latter to defy the NFL odds. Eli Manning is 3-0 SU and ATS against Tom Brady and the Patriots.

Is that about to finally change? Can Tom Brady finally solve the riddle that is Eli Manning and the G-men? [Insert dramatic shiver]

Obviously, the merit of New England’s season warrants such an outlook. Odds makers simply don’t have much choice but to install the Patriots as the faves, anywhere from 7-to7.5-point road chalk (depending on your sportsbook of choice) when the public is high on them and eager to ride them all the way to the Super Bowl. The Patriots are 8-0 SU and 5-2-1 ATS with a 16.6-point winning margin, as well 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS with a 13-point winning margin on the road.

It would be a huge mistake though to completely dismiss the Giants out of hand for our NFL picks. They are at home this Sunday, riding a three-game winning streak at MetLife into week 10, and Eli Manning and his O-line rank just a few spots behind New England in total offense (8th and averaging 27.4-points per game).

There is no doubt that Eli Manning won’t be intimidated by the spectre of Tom Brady on the field. If anything, he can give the certain Hall of Fame quarterback a run for his money. Where the Giants do come up short is on defense. Horribly short with the 32nd ranked defense in the league. Yikes. Not exactly the dream matchup for any coach against Tom Brady, is it?

Free NFL Pick: Patriots -7 (-115) at Bet365

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