Free NFL Picks: What Bookies Missed When Setting Week 9 Lines

Nikki Adams

Sunday, November 2, 2014 2:17 PM GMT

Sunday, Nov. 2, 2014 2:17 PM GMT

As the weekend fast approaches, we turn to the NFL odds board in search of last-minute value NFL picks. Where is the value NFL action? And how have lines moved ahead of week 9 NFL betting. Join us as we weigh in and serve up our NFL picks.

Jacksonville Jaguars +10.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
While the money line odds have remained stable on this game, the spread has been hopping up and down all week long. When we looked at this spread, it was set as high 13-points at some sportsbooks. Now it’s whittled down to 10-points or thereabouts. As the public weighed in, online sportsbooks have been moving the line down against the home favourites. Sharp bettors have a bit of a penchant for the Jaguars this season it would seem, never more so than in recent weeks with two covers in the last three weeks. The Jaguars have been playing better behind Blake Bortles and they’ve not been blown off the field since week 4 NFL betting. Cincinnati Bengals have seen their stock downgraded in NFL betting circles since going 1-2-1 SU in their last four games. Last week’s win over the Ravens wasn’t entirely convincing either. And, finally, the Bengals overall output this season has seen them go 4-2-1 SU all while being outscored 161-to-164. On balance, it would seem even the 10.5-points is too much to be giving the Bengals.

NFL Picks: Jaguars 10.5
 

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Denver Broncos  vs. New England Patriots +3.0
As the anticipation builds up for this clash, the public is split almost evenly on this clash. The line hasn’t moved in a major way but it has come down by half a point at some NFL odds shops from an early week high of 3.5-points. It’s unusual to have Patriots deemed as home underdogs in NFL betting. In fact, it’s only ever happened once in the last eight years. Surprisingly, earlier this season when they collided with the Cincinnati Bengals at Foxborough. At the time, bookies had panicked in a big way. Patriots had just been decimated at Arrowhead by Alex Smith and the Chiefs 41-14, marking one of the worst accounts by Tom Brady and the Patriots in the last decade. Instead of chalking it as a one-off, bookies made the mistake of overreacting. Tale told, Patriots beat the Bengals 43-17, covering handily behind a 26-point margin of victory as the home underdogs.

Understandably, NFL bettors are looking to cash on another rare opportunity here. Broncos may be the better team on paper. but the public seems to feel the Patriots deserve a bit more respect from the bookies at home. They are 14-9-0 ATS at home since 2012 with an average margin of victory at 11.3-points and an average cover margin of plus 3.7-points.

NFL Picks: Patriots +3.0
 

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Baltimore Ravens -2.0 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The NFL betting script has flipped entirely on this matchup. What began as an NFL betting outlook that wholeheartedly favoured the hosts, a salute by bookies to their perfect 2-0SU record in the last fortnight, including a 51-34 drumming of the Colts all while covering handily as the nominal home dogs, has turnaround in favour of the visitors. The Ravens have captured the public’s fancy in this clash, so much so that bookies have had to re-evaluate their NFL betting stance. Question is whether this means the Steelers are the value NFL pick as the 2-point home dogs. Obviously, nobody is giving them the credit they deserve for their back-to-back offensive outputs against the Texans and Colts. There is also the divisional aspect to consider. As well the fact that the Ravens are a modest 1-1-1ATS this season as the road chalk, and 1-3-1 ATS as the road chalk since 2013.

NFL Picks: Steelers +2.0

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