Free NFL Picks: What the Bookies Missed for Week 8

Nikki Adams

Friday, October 24, 2014 8:03 PM GMT

As week 8 of NFL betting nears, we intensify our search for value NFL picks that NFL bettors should spot. Have early NFL betting lines moved to open up better angles for profit? Join us as we analyse a couple of choice games on the NFL odds board and serve up our NFL betting verdict.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Arizona Cardinals
The NFL betting line dropped by half-point since opening at 2.5-points in midweek NFL odds, which suited us fine as our early NFL pick was to back the Eagles for the all out upset in Arizona anyway. On Friday, the line dropped by another point, marking a significant drop in one day, proving pundits were correct to expect this line to experience some volatile action.

There are a lot of similarities between these NFC counterparts – both are 5-1SU on the season and behind two-game winning streaks. The Eagles, however, have the slight advantage of a bye week, which gives them added time to prepare for this matchup. Let’s not forget their 27-0 dismantling of the New York Giants two weeks ago in Philly, which should send them into this game on a wave of confidence on both sides of the ball.

Early money flooded the Eagles, pushing the line down to 2-points, and it was widely expected to continue pushing this line down further before Sunday’s kick-off. That expectation proved correct on Friday. What’s more, it could continue its downward trend, very easily come down to a pick’ em before kickoff, so pay close attention.

Cardinals have been slightly overrated because of their 5-1 SU (3-0 at home) start on the season. They do have Carson Palmer back since week 7 NFL betting, which is an auspicious turn of events giving him a taste of action against the Raiders, a nice warm up game before the arrival of Philly’s potent offense. But the defensive side of the ball is set to be challenged by Chip Kelly and his Eagles. One aspect swinging this game in favour of Philly for us, however, is Cardinals’ passing defense that ranks 31st in the league.

Cardinals faced two good passing offenses this season already – San Diego and Denver Broncos, sides that boast passing leaders at centre to boot in Philip Rivers and Peyton Manning. The Cardinals beat the former by just a point (18-17), while Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos easily handled the Cardinals in a 41-20 defeat, picking apart that vulnerable defense. Nick Foles is an extremely competent passer averaging 271 passing yards per game with 10 touchdowns. This has us convinced the bookies have overlooked this piece of the puzzle; Chip Kelly and company will be well prepared to exploit that advantage on the field.

NFL Picks: Eagles plus the points at The Greek 

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Chicago Bears vs. New England Patriots
When we looked at this game on our early game-by-game ATS picks, the line was set to 6.5-points. It’s clearly come down since then, moving against the home favourites by a point. What have the Bears accomplished this season to inspire such fluctuation in NFL betting markets? Sure they beat the Niners. Aside from that they’ve been embarrassing really. They are after an unacceptable performance against the Miami Dolphins, who are mediocre at best. Jay Cutler is unreliable and inconsistent at centre, defense is porous and the locker room is in shambles. Not a recipe for success at the Foxborough, let’s face it. In any event, with the Bears mired in an existential crisis, 5.5-points seem too good to be true. So take the New England Patriots at 5.5-points on your NFL picks.

NFL Picks: Patriots -5.5 points at 5Dimes

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