Free NFL Picks: What Bookies Missed for Week 5

Nikki Adams

Friday, October 3, 2014 8:55 PM GMT

Each week we look at the NFL betting board in search of value NFL picks. Week 5 NFL betting serves up several mismatches that we believe sports bettors should shop for some profit on their NFL picks.

Cleveland Browns + 115 vs. Tennessee Titans -135
Analysis: Cleveland Browns are coming off a bye week, bringing a 1-2 SU record to Tennessee when they take on the Titans on Sunday. Easily, the Browns could have been 3-0 SU had a few plays gone their way in a tough schedule to start the season. They very nearly beat Pittsburgh at the start of the season, only to fall 30-27. They beat New Orleans Saints 26-24 at home, a side that was touted a Super Bowl contender in many NFL betting circles and they very nearly beat the Baltimore Ravens in week 3 NFL betting, only for Joe Flacco to tap into his elite quarterback form midway through the match and lead the Ravens to a comeback from behind win 23-21. Point is: the Browns are good – not great, but good. Probably better than most expected they’d be at the start of the season, and certainly better than the Titans are at the moment.

Tennessee Titans are god-awful by comparison. They take a 1-3 record into week 5 NFL betting behind unmemorable accounts against Dallas, Cincinnati and Indianapolis. Granted all those teams are quality outfits, enjoying great starts to the season. The Browns aren’t in the same class of the aforementioned triplet, but that notwithstanding they have to feel quite confident coming into this game, well rested, and in the knowledge that they were oh, so close to being in the green after three games. The Titans are there for the taking and the Browns could prove to be the savvy NFL pick to mastermind the upset in straight up NFL betting.

NFL Picks: Browns +115

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Houston Texans +6.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys -6.5
A side that sports one of the worst defenses in the league really has no business being installed as the 6.6-point favourite. Cowboys are 3-1 SU and ATS going into week 5 NFL betting, but they’ve built their tidy run on the back of suspect outfits. Having beaten the Titans, Rams and a struggling Saints, bookies might be getting carried away here by overestimating the Cowboys.

We might have not figured out whether the Houston Texans are contenders or pretenders just yet, the season is but in its infancy and they’ve built their 3-1 SU and ATS mark on the back of some questionable sides as well – Redskins, Raiders and Bills. But do they really deserve to be underrated so much on the NFL odds board? To put it simply, there is an equal ambiguity about these two outfits that should probably have served up a much closer NFL betting line than the one currently in swing. As it stands, we like the underdog to cover here.

NFL Picks: Texans +6.5

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Baltimore Ravens +165 vs. Indianapolis Colts -185
Indianapolis Colts have yet to get a win over a legitimate contender this season while Andrew Luck is yet to beat an elite quarterback. Of course, Andrew Luck has put in some staggering numbers over the last two games, which all too easily sways the betting public in favour of the Colts here and, in turn, encourages bettors to blithely ignore against which sides those numbers were actually posted – Jaguars and Titans. Fact is when faced with commensurate quarterbacks of stronger teams in the league the Colts were found wanting. Begging the question: beyond Andrew Luck, how good are the Colts really. Luck put up some good numbers against both the Broncos and Eagles but it wasn’t enough to carry the Colts to victory.

Nothing about the Colts suggests they are drastically better than the Ravens. What’s more the Ravens are well balanced on both sides of the ball, riding momentum behind three straight wins. Last week, they were scary good against the Carolina Panthers, prompting us to wonder whether the odds makers might be underrating the Ravens in this matchup as the 3-point underdogs on the spread and the +165 pups in straight up betting. At least we think so, which prompts our final sharp NFL pick.

NFL Picks: Ravens +165 at 5Dimes

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