Free NFL Picks: What the Bookies Missed for Week 17

Nikki Adams

Friday, December 26, 2014 9:31 PM GMT

We sift through the NFL odds board in search of value NFL picks against the spread. Find out which games we focus on in week 17 NFL betting, the ultimate round of regular season NFL action.

Cardinals vs. Niners -6.5
The Arizona Cardinals have been forced to resort to third-string quarterback Logan Thomas in their last game of the regular season. The Ryan Lindley experiment was a flop against the Seattle Seahawks, a 35-6 loss in week 16 NFL betting as the Cardinals succumbed to one of their worst defeats of the season. Logan Thomas is 12-26-2 against the spread from his Virginia Tech starting days. Given how poorly the Cardinals played against the league's top defense, it's hard to imagine they'll fare a whole lot better against the league's fifth-ranked defense with Thomas at centre. The NFL betting line opened around the 4.5-point mark, which was rather low. It's up to 6.5-points now but yet it still feels two low. Granted the Niners haven't played up to their level this season, but their defense should have a field day with Thomas.

NFL Picks: Niners -6.5 at The Greek

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Panthers vs. Falcons -3.5
This NFL betting line is conservative considering both teams are sporting losing records on the season. Upon closer inspection, the balance tips towards the Falcons, who despite a 6-9 SU record (3-4 at home) are the better balanced team. They beat the Cardinals in week 13 NFL betting, played the Packers and Steelers close in the subsequent weeks, and then dismissed the Saints 30-14 to move into a favourable position to reach the playoffs. They sport a 5-point differential having scored 378 points while conceding 383 points. They have home advantage over a Panthers side that is rather fortunate to be 6-8-1 SU on the season and riding a three-game winning streak on the back of a modest schedule down the stretch. Take the better team with the sensible point spread at home.

NFL Picks: Falcons - 3.5 at 5dimes

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Jets vs. Dolphins -5.5
The NFL betting lines opened at 7-points but have been steadily coming down, moving against the Dolphins. Miami may have beaten the Vikings last week to snap a two-game losing streak but they extended their losing streak against the spread to four in row. The Dolphins have been too inconsistent in the second half of the season to merit 5.5-points, never mind the starting 7-point spread rolled out across sportsbooks. The NFL betting public is piling onto the Dolphins with 70% of the best recorded in their camp. Fade the public and shade the Jets as the NFL odds 5.5 point road pups.

NFL Picks: Jets +5.5 at Bookmaker

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Saints vs. Bucs +3.5
NFL betting trends reveal 91% of the public is behind the Saints as the 3.5-point road favourites against the Bucs in week 17 NFL betting. A team that has lost five straight games at home has no business attracting the Lion's share of the market. Consider there's really little difference between the Saints and Bucs, who have lost two more at home than the Saints. Granted the Saints come into this game with a three-game winning streak on the road, but those wins were secured when the Saints were still in the playoff race. They were must-wins that served to cover their shortcomings at home. Now with nothing to play for after their latest debacle at home, there is no incentive for the Saints. The home underdog on the reasonable spread looks more tempting on our NFL picks.

NFL Picks: Bucs +3.5 at BetOnline

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