Free NFL Picks: What the Bookies Missed for Week 14

Nikki Adams

Friday, December 5, 2014 3:41 PM GMT

In this column we look at the weekly NFL betting slate, analyse the NFL betting lines for select matchups and serve up our betting verdicts. Find out where we're shining our spotlight and what our predictions are.

Ravens (+2.5) vs. Dolphins
Opening Line: -3
Dolphins emerge as a bit of a surprise package this season. They are 7-5 SU and 3-2 SU at home with a gauntlet throwing win over New England to kick start the season. They are 7-5 ATS as well with a healthy 5.8-point margin of victory. What's more, Dolphins are 3-2 ATS at home with an 8.2-point margin of victory. They have an excellent pass rush, a solid defense and the tenth ranked rushing offense in the league. Altogether, they are averaging 25.1-points per game and  conceding just 19.3-points per game. As home favorites, they are 2-1 ATS with a 10.3-point margin of victory this season.

On the flipside of the coin, Baltimore Ravens are 7-5 SU and 3-3 SU on the road. They boast a 6-5-1 ATS mark on the season with a 7.2-point margin of victory. Ravens boast the 16th-ranked passing offense and 5th-ranked rushing offense and they are averaging 27.3-points per game, conceding just 20.2-points per game this season. Although they are coming off a rather narrow 34-33 loss to the Chargers, the week prior they beat the Saints 34-27 to cover as the 3-point road pups.


NFL Betting Verdict: 
This is a huge game for both teams, their playoff bids potentially hanging in the balance. The game is cast close, on a tight NFL betting line that opened around the 3-point mark, but has whittled down by a half-point at some sports betting shops. Whichever side you are looking to back in this game on your NFL picks, there's value to be had on either side with what we feel is a rather low betting line altogether. Public betting trends reveal a 62% stake in the Ravens while just 38% backing the Dolphins. For our money, we're shading with the Public on this game, only because of what is at stake and the edge Flacco has over Tannehill in experience.

NFL Picks: Ravens +2.5 at 5Dimes

 

Giants EVEN over Titans
Opening Line: EVEN
In the broad spectrum of the NFL season, this game is meaningless. Neither side is battling for anything important, save for pride. That's no reason though to dismiss this game on your NFL picks, especially when the NFL odds are ambiguous at best.

Giants have frustrated many an NFL bettor this season, but not for a lack of effort or poor play per say. They've played rather well considering their schedule is one of the toughest this season. They were 3-2 SU at the conclusion of week 5 before their skid began on the heels of dates with the Eagles, Cowboys, Colts, Seahawks, Niners and Cowboys (2nd meeting). They played fairly well in Seattle before things came undone late in the game, played the Niners close and even gave the Cowboys a run for their money in the second meeting. Granted they should have won the game in Jacksonville last week. If they aren't crushed and demoralised, they should prove the savvy NFL pick against a Tennessee Titans that is simply bad all around. Worst in the NFL with a 3-8-1 ATS mark and a 10.4-point margin of defeat.


NFL Betting Verdict
It may come across strange to be so confident in the Giants when they've lost seven games in a row and burned us last week by frittering away the lead over the Jaguars. But this NFL betting line smacks of panic, seriously underrating the Giants while overrating the Titans at the same time. Shade the Giants on your NFL picks at Even money.

NFL Picks: Giants Even