Free NFL Picks: What the Bookies Missed for Week 12

Nikki Adams

Friday, November 21, 2014 5:32 PM GMT

Friday, Nov. 21, 2014 5:32 PM GMT

In this column we look for angles for profit on the weekly NFL odds board. Join us as we serve up our choice NFL picks for the week 12's matchups.

Week 12 NFL Focus
This week we look at two of the most popular teams in American, Denver Broncos and New England Patriots. Both are at home this week, set on rather understated NFL odds with just a 7-point spread. Are bookies underestimating the Broncos and Patriots this week or just acknowledging their opponents with the respect they deserve. Let's find out as we breakdown the matchups and corresponding stats available.


Miami Dolphins +7.0 vs. Denver Broncos -7.0
A 7-point spread for a game that features the Denver Broncos at Mile High is a low spread. Consider the Broncos are 5-0 SU at home this season with 14.8-point average margin of victory, 14-1 SU since 2013 with a 15.1-point average margin of victory. What's more, this season they are 3-2 ATS against the spread at home, covering their last three games in a row behind a 23-point average margin of defeat. And 9-5-1 ATS since 2013 with an average 15.1-point margin of victory. The Dolphins don't come near the magic "7" on the stats sheets, never mind owning a quality win over a heavyweight on the road. They are a modest team with a 6-4 SU record this season, and a 3-2 SU record on the road at the expense of wretched Oakland, struggling Chicago and a hapless Jaguars. Dolphins are 2-2 ATS on the road this season with an average 1-point margin of victory; 6-6 ATS since 2013 with a 0.5-point margin of victory.

The only explanation for this modest NFL betting spread is last week's defeat, in which the Broncos were held to a mere touchdown in a 22-7 loss to the St. Louis Rams. Certainly, this spread doesn't tip its hat to the Miami Dolphins. It's an overreaction, plain and simple. The Broncos should lay the points comfortably, thereby putting week 11's loss to the Rams firmly behind. Broncos are 2-0 SU after a loss this season with a healthy 22.5-point margin of victory, 5-0 SU since last season with a 20-point margin of victory.

NFL Picks: Broncos -7.0 at The Greek 

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Detroit Lions +7.0 vs. New England Patriots -7.0
Just like the Broncos, the Patriots are a tough customer at home with a 5-0 SU record. Since 2013, the Patriots are unbeaten at home with a 14-0 SU record, in other words they have a 100% winning percentage at the Foxboro. Over and above their perfect run at home through 14 games, they boast a 13.1 average margin of victory. That margin is a staggering 17-points this season through five games, including wins over Cincinnati and Denver. Indeed, they annihilated the Broncos 43-21 at the Foxboro.

On the strength of a 7-3 SU record this season, the Detroit Lions have earned the respect of odds makers and NFL bettors. However, that record is largely built on solid home form. On the road, the Lions are just 3-2 SU with, losses to Carolina (24-7) and Buffalo (17-14). Overall, they've been outscored 69-to-79 on the road, which yields a 2-point margin of victory.  They have yet to face a true elite quarterback on the road, at the helm of a well balanced team such as the Patriots, who boast the 9th-ranked passing offense and 13th-ranked rushing offense alongside a 17th-ranked passing defense and 14th-ranked rushing defense.

When making your NFL picks this week keep in mind that once again, by the numbers the Patriots warrant more respect than the 7-point spread the odds makers have rolled out for this clash. The NFL betting public seems to agree as 64% of the bets coming down the wire have gone towards the Patriots as the 7-point home chalk.

NFL Picks: Patriots -7.0 at BetOnline

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