Free NFL Picks: What the Bookies Missed for Week 11

Nikki Adams

Friday, November 14, 2014 4:21 PM UTC

Friday, Nov. 14, 2014 4:21 PM UTC

In this column we search for angles for profit bookies may have inadvertently accommodated through their evaluations of week 11's NFL betting slate. So with that purpose in mind, here are our selections for games that could bust the bookies.

Saints -7.0 over Bengals
The Bengals might be 5-3-1 SU this season, above .500 which is a good place to be at this stage of the season. But they are only 1-2 SU on the road, outscored by 40-to-126 for a whopping 86-point differential through three games which yields a 28.67-margin of defeat per game. To say the Bengals are struggling on the road is the understatement of the season. What makes this run of form relevant is the fact that in each of those defeats, Andy Dalton and the Bengals faced off against top notch quarterbacks -- Joe Flacco and Tom Brady (both Super Bowl champs) and Andrew Luck (a Super Bowl champ in the making). Next up, another class of the NFL in Drew Brees and the Saints. New Orleans boast an 11-1-0 SU record at the Superdome since 2012, a run of form that includes a 15.2-point winning margin. Week 10 NFL betting served the Saints their first defeat in 12 games, a rather dubious 27-24 loss in overtime to the Niners.

One home loss isn't cause for panic, surely. But the Saint are only favoured by 7-points against the struggling Bengals on the road. If basic home field advantage equals 3-points, bookies imply the Saints are merely 4-points better than the Bengals. It's true there is a bit of a chink in the Saints' armour at home now, they don't have the look of a virtually unbeatable home team. That being said the Bengals certainly don't have the look of a road threat. Their last outing was an abysmal 27-0 defeat at Indianapolis.  Add to that their abominable 24-3 loss to the Browns at home last week and they've been outscored 51-3 in their last two games. That's a 24-point margin of defeat per game.

Bengals stock value has bottomed out. Recent form rather than perception and preconceived notions suggests they should be at the greater disadvantage to the Saints in this game. Hence, they emerge as the value NFL pick as the 7-point faves.

NFL Picks: Saints -7.0 at Bet365

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":290716, "sportsbooksIds":[19,43,227,1096,999996,93,238,123,139], "LineTypeId":5, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]


Bucs +8.5 over Redskins
The Redskins have done absolutely nothing to warrant such blatant favouritism on the NFL odds board. RGIII may be back, but the Redskins have yet to win a game behind the No.1 draft pick this season. In week 9 NFL betting, his first game back, RGIII led the Redskins to a 29-26 loss to the rookie-inspired Vikings. The only explanation for such a hefty spread is the one-win Bucs alone. But just because the Bucs are a disappointment this season, does it justify installing the Redskins as the 8.5-point favourites?

On the back of a five-game losing streak, the Bucs can't seem to buy a win since the one-off result in week 4 NFL betting, a right 27-24 shocker at the expense of the Steelers on the road. They aren't as bad as their 1-8 SU and 3-6 ATS records suggests they are though. For instance, while they are 1-3 SU on the road, they are also 3-1 ATS on the road. Granted, they boast a 12.5-point margin of defeat across the span of their four outings, but that number is heavily skewed by Atlanta's 56-14 beat down in week 3 NFL betting. The Bucs haven't lost another game as badly.Therefore, if we were to take that game out of the equation, they are 1-2 SU on the road with a 2.7-point margin of defeat (outscored 83-to-75). Over the span of those three games, they beat the Steelers 27-24 and narrowly lost 37-31 in overtime to the Saints and 22-17 to the Browns.

Undeniably, the Bucs are struggling to win games .Thus, they are at the disadvantage on the NFL betting floor for good reason. But the Redskins have no business laying more than a touchdown, if that, to any team, including the Bucs. Hence, the Bucs to cover as the 8.5-point road pups is our value NFL pick to bust the bookies on week 11 NFL betting.

NFL Picks: Bucs +8.5 at 5Dimes

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":290711, "sportsbooksIds":[19,43,227,1096,999996,93,238,123,139], "LineTypeId":5, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

comment here