Free NFL Picks: What the Bookies Missed for Week 10

Nikki Adams

Saturday, November 8, 2014 8:29 PM UTC

Saturday, Nov. 8, 2014 8:29 PM UTC

We turn to week 10's NFL betting board in search of last-minute value NFL picks. How have lines moved over the course of the week and have they opened new opportunities for profit on our NFL picks.

Steelers -3.5 over Jets
When we first looked at the NFL odds for this matchup, it was hovering around 4.5-points or thereabouts depending on your choice sportsbook. Since early doors, it's whittled down to 3.5-points, which is a big move against the Steelers given their current run of form. Granted the Steelers pulled off this incredible turnaround at home, winning three straight in spectacular, convincing fashion. They are yet to prove their merit reliably on the road as well. But the Jets aren't an adequate litmus test, surely. To put it another way, they hardly have the look of an insurmountable obstacle.

Jets have lost eight in a row, they don't have a reliable quarterback...and so on, the list of grievances is endless. Suffice it to say, to all intents and purposes, their season is done. Fans are in uproar, calls to fire John Idzik are gaining momentum. It's a mess. Ben Roethlisberger has scored 14 touchdowns in the last three games, twice in a row he had six-touchdown accounts. Only three centres have thrown four or more touchdowns in three consecutive games: Dan Marino, Peyotn Manning and Drew Brees. That's an illustrious circle to become a member of, which he will if he has another virtuoso night this Sunday.

It boggles the mind that the Steelers are only favoured by 3.5-points. Needless to say, it's a steal on your NFL picks. Look for the Steelers to steamroll the Jets on Sunday decisively.

NFL Picks: Steelers -3.5

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Chiefs (Even) over Bills
Kansas City Chiefs were favoured by a 1-point or 1.5-points at early doors, depending on your online sports betting exchange. Now, they are down to Evens against the Bills, a side that is by our estimation highly overrated for being effectively a so-so team. They are 5-3 SU on the season but at whose expense? Chicago, Minnesota and New York Jets represent three of those five wins, sides that are currently mired in all sorts of problems. Therein lies the misrepresentation in football betting markets: The Bills are a product of their favourable schedule.

Make no mistake, there are still many issues with the Bills, too many to warrant such a favourable NFL betting outlook against a Chiefs side that is gaining moment as we head towards the postseason. Alex Smith is a much better quarterback than Kyle Orton is, and the Chiefs as a whole are the proven, playoff tested side. Kansas are 5-3 SU as well and in second place behind Denver in the AFC West. San Diego Chargers are nipping at their heels in the third, too close for comfort. The Chiefs  can't let up now; they need this win if they hope to make the post season. Take the Chiefs at Even money for your NFL Picks.

NFL Picks: Chiefs Even at 5Dimes

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Giants +9.5 over Seahawks
What have the Seahawks done this season to merit such a favourable NFL betting spread? Very little, let's be honest. Last week, they only just escaped the Raiders with a 30-24 win. Although they won, the haples Raiders romped off with the cover against the spread for NFL bettors. This is way too many points to be giving the Seahawks given their less than convincing form. Giants have their own issues to contend with and they are coming off a blowout at home to the Colts. But that was Andrew Luck up to his usual lofty standards. Look for the Giants to put in a plucky effort against the Seahawks. If the Raiders can lose by six, surely the Giants can keep it close too. Take the Giants to cover the hefty NFL betting spread for your week 10 NFL picks.

NFL Picks: Giants +9.5

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