Free NFL Picks Week 8 - Oakland Raiders vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers players in action

Nikki Adams

Tuesday, October 25, 2016 10:11 PM GMT

High-flying Raiders open as the road dogs for their week 8 date with the Buccaneers. Do the odds makers have it right? Find out as we analyse this matchup and serve up choice NFL picks.
 

     Oakland Raiders vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 

Point Spread Value

The Raiders bounced back with a 33-16 win in Jacksonville on Sunday defying the NFL odds as the opening road underdogs around +1.5 with most sportsbooks. On the road, the Raiders are undefeated with a 4-0 SU and ATS record that includes a 6.5 winning margin on average and a + 8.1 differential versus the spread. In spite of this stellar record the Raiders open as small road underdogs for their week 8 date with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. At first glance, this might not make a lot of sense. What’s wrong with bookies? Is a thought many NFL bettors might consider. Thing is, since Dirk Koetter called out Jameis Winston following a horrendous 27-7 defeat to the Denver Broncos, the second-year quarterback responded with wins over Carolina Panthers and San Francisco 49ers. He’s been playing solid ball and if he can keep that momentum going the Bucs have a shot. Yes, yes, betting against the Raiders when facing modest teams hasn’t proven profitable. However, this is the second road game in as many weeks and they are due a let-down on the road.

 
 

Free NFL Picks: Bucs -1 (-110)

Best Line Offered: at Bodog

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Go Back To NFL Week 8 Cheat Sheet

 

The Survivor

Of all the games on the NFL odds board this one has many on the fence. There’s a lot to like about Derek Carr and the Raiders. Equally, Jameis Winston and the Bucs have perked up of late and that can’t be overstated enough. It doesn’t help when bookmakers are being deliberately coy with the NFL odds. Be it by serving up this game on tight NFL spreads or PK lines to money line odds that bear so little distinction. That alone makes hedging this game on your SU and ATS picks probably worth it. Normally, it’s wise to back the favourite in SU betting and shade the underdog against the spread because it likely gives a bettor a 50-50 chance of winning. In a perfect world, the favourite wins and the underdog covers. Hence, the bettor is 100% a winner. In this case, however, the NFL strategy is slightly different. By backing the Bucs against the spread and taking the Raiders SU one NFL pick isn’t going to win. The reason for this move is purely remuneration. The Raiders at +111 to win SU on the road, where they are 4-0 SU is just too tempting not to tickle. Put another way, while Tampa does have a real shot to win this game we’re not ready to put down -125 or more for the feat. To date they are 0-2 SU at home and, although recent form looks to be on the up, it’s only two wins in a row to improve to 3-3 SU. Let’s talk again when they win three in a row, yeah?

 

Free NFL Picks: Raiders +111

Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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Total Picks

If the last few weeks are an indication of what’s to come then this is setting up to be a right shootout to spot on your NFL picks. Indeed, so think bookmakers too that are hanging this game on 49-points or more. Three of the four Raiders games on the road, including last week’s 33-16 win over Jacksonville, went OVER pre-set totals. It’s not unreasonable to suggest the Raiders offense will sizzle under the Florida sunshine for a second straight week.

 Free NFL Picks: OVER 49 (-110)

Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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