Free NFL Picks Week 8 - Green Bay Packers vs Atlanta Falcons

Green Bay Packers players

Wednesday, October 26, 2016 9:10 PM GMT

Atlanta Falcons look to avoid a third straight defeat when they host the Green Bay Packers. Bookies install the Falcons as the home chalk. Do they have it right? Or is the value NFL pick with the Packers?

 

     

Green Bay Packers vs Atlanta Falcons 

 

Point Spread Value

The Atlanta Falcons are a solid 5-2-0 ATS on the season, a record underscored by a 4.3 winning margin and +6.1 differential versus the spread. Recent form has taken a dip though. Two losses in a row to the Seahawks and Chargers sets the Falcons back in the context of the NFC frame. Both those losses though were narrow and featured some bad luck and questionable calls.

There is no sense in crying over spilt milk. Bookies seem to be taking a page from that notion. They install the Falcons as the significant home chalk laying anywhere from -2.5 to -3 depending on your choice top-rated sportsbook. Thing is the Falcons are 1-2 SU and ATS at home, failing to  cover the two times they closed as the favorites over Tampa Bay (-2.5) and San Diego (-4.5).

A lot has been made of the Packers and the struggles on offense they were experiencing. Until last week and the dominant win over the Bears. Granted beating the Bears may not be indication those are over. But what if they are? In any event, sending the Packers into the Georgia Dome as the +3 road underdogs does seem a bit excessive. You know what Rodgers can do under the dome.

 

Free NFL Picks: Packers +3 (-105)

Best Line Offered: at BetCris

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Go Back To NFL Week 8 Cheat Sheet


The Survivor

The Falcons will look to stop the rot at two straight defeats when they host the Packers who are looking to continue the momentum after a dominant win over the Chicago Bears. It’s a right tossup between these two teams in straight up betting markets. There’s good reason to back the Falcons for the home win. Equally so the Packers for the road win. One thing that has us tipping this game towards the Packers is Atlanta’s inconsistency that can rear its ugly head. Last season, they reeled off five wins to start the season and then the wheels came well and truly off. This two-game losing streak is eerily reminiscent of that and, as such, they’re a fade on our week 8 NFL picks.

 

Free NFL Picks: Packers +140

Best Line Offered: at William Hill

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Game Totals

Buckle up for a shootout at the Georgia Dome. The Falcons have littered the stats since the start of the season and they boast a league best 6-1-0 OVER record. On the strength of that alone the OVER is worth the tickle. On the flipside, the Falcons defense leaks way too many points and Aaron Rodgers is due a big game against a defense that he can pick apart.

 

Free NFL Picks: OVER 52.5 (-110)

Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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