Free NFL Picks - Week 7 Predictions For Colts vs. Titans

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, October 21, 2016 10:31 PM UTC

Friday, Oct. 21, 2016 10:31 PM UTC

The Indianapolis Colts travel to face the Tennessee Titans in Nashville on Sunday afternoon. Surprising to many, the Titans have the better record, as after winning consecutive games, they are now 3-3 SU for the season. Contrast to the Colts, who are just 2-4 SU following their loss at Houston Sunday night, time for NFL picks.



Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans (-3) 1:00 ET

Many will opt for Indy off a loss, as the series dominator. The Colts have beaten the Titans 8 consecutive times by an average of 9 PPG, covering 6 of those. But, the statistical evidence is quite to the contrary.  

Each week in this space, I select an NFL team whom I believe will dominate the line of scrimmage and STEAMROLL their way to victory. Remember that teams who outrush the opposition by 30 or more yards are a 75% ATS play this millennium. Correspondingly, a team with 30 rush attempts, while their opponent does not, covers 85% of the time. And, a team who allows 22 or fewer rush attempts is an 86% winner against the team who does not.  Hello, Tennessee Titans!

Last Sunday night, the nation watched Indianapolis lead Houston by 14 points late in the game. The Texans tied it up, sent it to OT and won the contest 26-23. It was a continuing downer for an Indy team, who is now 10-12 SU since the start of last season. Some will opt for HC Pagano who is 12-3 ATS in divisional contests. Others may lean to Indy QB Luck, who is 18-5 ATS/loss. All of that would blend well with the fact that Tennessee HC Mularkey is 3-15 SU ATS at home in his NFL career. Lining up on that bandwagon, however, would be ignoring the fundamentals of this contest.

Tennessee openly committed to being a smash mouth running team this season. True to his word, Mularkey’s Titans have outrushed each of their last 6 opponents. In the last 2 games, both victories, they outrushed Miami 41/235 to 17/51 in a 30-17 road win. Last week, Tennessee outrushed Cleveland 31/137 to 15/40, yet fell victim to Cleveland coming through the backdoor in a 28-26 win.  Today, at a more manageable point spread, look for the Titans’ running statistics to play to their advantage.  For the year, the Titans are running for an average of 30/147 per game, while allowing opponents to rush just 22/89. Against an Indy defense that is allowing 4.8 YPR, the Titans should easily control matters at the line of scrimmage all day. Combined with a 21/324 defense, compared to the Colts’ 29/412 stop unit, it would appear that only TOs can prevent Tennessee from this win and cover. I invite you to put the NFL odds in your favor and join me in my NFL pick on the Tennessee Titans this afternoon.


Free NFL Pick: Titans -3 (-119)Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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