Free NFL Picks: Week 3 Value Bets

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, September 16, 2014 6:33 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 16, 2014 6:33 PM UTC

We have an interesting week against the NFL odds with some teams playing either their first home or road game. In addition, the results from the first two weeks are influencing sportsbooks releases. 

Those making sports picks are surveying the situation just like me and I believe I have three more value free NFL picks coming off a winning week.


Baltimore the Better Team
I know I know; I can hear you complaining, with me having the Baltimore Ravens for the third straight week. I admit I am a touched biased since I liked this team in August and while my enthusiasm has waned moderately, I prefer them in this spot as an NFL football handicapper.

I am also seeing the wagering public is agreeing with me, taking this game from Pick'em to -1.5 already, thus I would grab this quickly like I did before it goes up.

The difference in this game is confidence. Baltimore knows how to beat Cleveland, having beaten them 11 times in a row (8-3 ATS) before losing on the shores of Lake Erie last season. The Browns have played a very good last six quarters and have above average talent at several positions, however, they more hope to win versus Baltimore than actually believe, which has been the case since 2008.

At this still short number, the Ravens basically just have to win the game, and do.

NFL Pick: Baltimore -1.5

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San Francisco on the Mend
Going to take a little leap of faith here against the NFL odds and grab San Francisco without knowing the oddsmakers number, because of the uncertain status of both Carson Palmer and tight end Vernon Davis.

I think after a second half collapse and understanding the importance of this confrontation with Arizona, the 49ers mindset will be very determined and focused. I am the first to admit the Cardinals have made an amazing turnaround as a franchise and them being 12-6 SU and 11-6-1 ATS with Steve Keim as GM and Bruce Arians as head coach is tremendous, however, I still have them a step behind San Fran and Seattle, at least at this juncture of the season.

Similar to what I wrote about above, the Niners know how to beat Arizona, being 9-2 ATS overall and 8-1 ATS in the desert. My prognostication on the line is three points either way and I’ll back San Fran.

NFL Pick: San Francisco to cover

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Bears Receivers Shine in New Jersey
Going into last week, Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffries were dinged and not expected to be at full strength for San Francisco. This duo is not a pair of burners anyways, but because they are so large in terms of both size and frame, they are extremely difficult to cover.

The 49ers secondary found that out last week, as Jay Cutler go hot and if he throws that ball in the right spots, the Chicago Bears receivers are going to catch it.

Last week the New York secondary could not have covered Jordy Nelson with an over-sized quilt let alone man or zone coverage. Now they have two big fella’s along with 6’6 tight end Martellus Bennett to chuck the pigskin to, along with a defensive line that can get a push, and all of the sudden Chicago at +2.5 looks inviting. As long as Jay Cutler doesn’t screw it up.

NFL Pick: Chicago +2.5 at 5Dimes

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