Free NFL Picks for Week 3: Chicago Bears vs. Seattle Seahawks

David Lawrence

Friday, September 25, 2015 11:55 PM GMT

Friday, Sep. 25, 2015 11:55 PM GMT

Chicago has allowed 79 points in losses to Green Bay and Arizona at home, but they scored 46 points, so at least they could put something up. Now they head to Seattle without Jay Cutler, the Seahawks are 0-2 themselves after losses at St. Louis and Green Bay and they have Kam Chancellor back after his brief holdout. Oh, and this the Seahawks' first game in front of what is acknowledged as the best homefield advantage in the league. It could be a long day for the Bears.

Opening Odds & Line Movement
Open: -14.5 -105 at Pinnacle
The NFL odds didn't actually come out until Tuesday when it was announced that Cutler would be out (more on that in a minute), and it hasn't moved off -14.5 for the Seahawks, even with the news that Chancellor would make his debut. The Seahawk weren't the same without Chancellor, the strong safety who can cover tight ends as well as help defend against the run, and the secondary just wasn't as aggressive without him. This line probably could be higher if the sportsbooks wanted to make it so.

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Injuries
Chicago QB Cutler hasn't been ruled out because of a hamstring injury, but all signs are pointing to Jimmy Clausen taking the snaps. WR Alshon Jeffery has his own hamstring issue and that would destroy the Bears as that would pile a ton of pressure on Matt Forte, who was limited in practice himself. WR Eddie Royal has a hip problem as well, so getting to double digits in points might be a win for the Bears.

RB Marshawn Lynch was limited in practice for the Seahawks, but that might be just to save “Beast Mode” from wear and tear. Other than that, the Seahawks are healthy, they have Chancellor back and they're angry.

 

Trends
The Bears are 2-5 in their last seven ATS, and they're 2-4 ATS in their last six at home, while the Seahawks are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five overall, but 5-4-1 ATS in their last 10 at home. As a favorite of eight points or more, the Seahawks are 5-4-1 ATS in their last 10 since 2013.

Seattle is 6-4 SU and 5-5 ATS in their last 10 against Chicago, but the last four meetings have been in the Windy City. In Seattle, the Seahawks are 4-1 SU in their last five meetings with the Bears, going 2-2 ATS.

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