Free NFL Picks: Week 2 Dolphins vs. Patriots Predictions

Miami Dolphins team running into the field

Mark Lathrop

Tuesday, September 13, 2016 3:49 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 13, 2016 3:49 PM UTC

Dolphins have forced opponents into very ugly games in their last two regular season matchups. Can the trend continue as the public jumps on the surprising underhanded New England Patriots? Read on for NFL week 2 picks.

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots
The Miami Dolphins continue their tough road trip to start their season, as they travel other 3,000-plus miles across the country to visit their AFC East rival, New England Patriots. The Dolphins are coming off of a close loss against the Seattle Seahawks, as they pushed the now perennial contenders to the brink before losing on the last drive, 12-10. It was a strong showing for the Dolphins as they came into that game as 10.5 point underdogs. The Patriots are coming off of a surprising straight-up win on Sunday night against the Arizona Cardinals as a 9-point road underdog with a backup quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo, under center.

This game technically opened with NFL odds having New England favored at home by 4.5 points. That line was published before the outcome of the Sunday night game with the Patriots beating the Cardinals. The line has since skyrocketed in favor of the Patriots, with it now sitting as high as 7 points at 5Dimes. The O/U total is currently at 41 to 41.5 depending on where you look.

In Seattle, the Dolphins front seven on defense gave Russell Wilson and his offense fits for the first 40 minutes of the game. Cameron Wake, Mario Williams, and Suh were all very good at applying consistent pressure, harassing Wilson for most of the game and sacking him 3 times. They’ll come up against a New England offensive line that held Arizona to just 2 sacks, which is pretty impressive considering that a rookie was starting the game and Arizona’s front seven is pretty good.

Miami’s offense predictably had a hard day against one of the top defenses in the league in Seattle, but it could have scored more points. On one particular play, receiver Kenny Stills was all by himself 50 yards down the field yet still dropped a pass that Ryan Tannehill put right into his gut. Arian Foster looked very good in the game, even if his 13 for 38 yards rushing looked a little off. Foster was great out of the backfield catching the ball, picking up 62 yards on 3 big plays. Foster looked like his old self in space and made All-Pro safety, Earl Thomas, miss tackles on multiple occasions.

It was New England’s surprising win that will be what most folks look at when wagering on this game, though, as is natural. However, it was the Dolphins who forced New England into an ugly game last January that should be remembered, much like they just did against the Seahawks. The Dolphins won that game 20-10 as 10-point underdogs, covering the spread by 10 points and ruining the days of many teaser bettors. It was payback from a 36-7 pasting by the Patriots earlier in the season in New England, where Tannehill was intercepted twice and Tom Brady threw for 356 yards and 4 touchdowns.

New England was very underhanded against Arizona, and will continue to be against the Dolphins. They were, of course, missing Tom Brady, but also Gronk and three of their starting offensive linemen. That’s a lot of blocking assignments to make up against a very tough Miami defensive line coming into town.

I’m not buying it, just not yet, and want to use the overreaction to the Patriots win to my advantage. I’m not saying they lose to the Dolphins, but anything north of 7 points has value here, as I expect Miami to force New England into an ugly game. Jump on the Dolphins +7 at 5Dimes for your free NFL picks against the spread. Another book to look at wagering this game on is Bovada which is offering 100% Cash Sign Up Bonus, as they are usually very skewed towards the favorite and could hang a big number for the Patriots to cover.


Free NFL Pick: Dolphins +7  
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes
2016 NFL Record: 3-1, +1.90 Units  

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