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Bills vs. Bucs
The Bills have scored over 30 points in back to back games, and with their first round pick, EJ Manuel back over the last few games, the Bills’ offense has looked better each week. The offense got another piece back last week too, as Robert Woods, the guy they picked right after Manuel, returned from injury. If this offense is truly back to form, along with their consistently good running attack, then the Bills look to be the play here as +2 ½ underdogs in the NFL Odds.
Currently only one sportsbook has the spread at +3, but either way, I like the spread and moneyline price on Buffalo here. Despite the Bills’ defensive woes over the last several weeks, I doubt the Tampa offense creates much of an issue in this game, even at home. Mike Glennon has been average at best in the Bucs last four games, and against the Panthers last week he looked lost.
The Bills can present a formidable pass defense at times, but their offense is going to be what wins or loses them this game. I see this one being close, but the value for our NFL picks is with the Bills as it currently stands.
My Pick: Bills +2 ½
New York heads out west to play the Chargers this week, and the NFL odds favor the home team at -3. However that would imply that these two teams are playing similarly, and that is not the case. The Giants pass rush has finally shown up after taking the first half of the season off, but the Chargers’ offense should be ok against them this week. San Diego has only given up 23 sacks on the year, and the offensive line is a big reason why both the run and passing games are playing well for the Chargers.
Granted, San Diego did get beat by the Bengals at home last week, but Cincinnati is a superior team, and I said that coming into Week 13. The Giants however are not, and the San Diego passing game should be virtually unstoppable this weekend at home. Eli Manning and the Giants’ offense has not been great despite their winning streak. They have played some bad defenses, and even though San Diego’s isn’t much better, they are at home, and traveling across the country at this point in the season will wear on the playoff-less Giants. Any team can get up for a road game within their division, but a long trip to California might wear on them in Week 14.
New York is only 3-7 ATS in their last ten road games, including their win last week, while the Chargers are only 3-6 ATS in their last nine home games. In the Manning versus Phillip Rivers era, the Chargers have won and covered both of their games against the Giants, and I think he makes it a hat trick after this weekend. Lay the -3 with the Chargers.
My Pick: Chargers -3