Free NFL Picks: Week 11 Power Rankings to Keep Profits Coming

Kevin Stott

Monday, November 16, 2015 1:12 PM UTC

Monday, Nov. 16, 2015 1:12 PM UTC

Let’s see who ended up where after all the gridiron dirt cleared on Sunday to with the second half of the season, examine some updated Super Bowl 50 odds and make a couple of early Week 11 picks.

Week 10 was a good week for the Minnesota Vikings, New York Giants and Buffalo Bills, while the Green Bay Packers, Denver Broncos, Seattle Seahawks, Oakland Raiders, New York Jets and Dallas Cowboys may all remember this NFL Regular Season week as the one which ultimately ripped their damn hearts out. And, even in losing to Tom Brady and the Super Bowl champion and now still unbeaten New England Patriots at Home at MetLife Stadium on Sunday, Eli “Now Again the Better” Manning and the New York Giants actually looked good and moved up in this week’s Power Rankings by virtue of their fine performance, last-second Loss and Roster now chock full o’ skill players. And with the Philadelphia Eagles (4-5) losing to the Miami Dolphins by a point (20-19) at Home at Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday, the Giants (5-5) slid into 1st Place in the water-logged NFC East division, which is starting to resemble last year’s NFC South with no team currently above the .500 mark (Washington Redskins 4-5, Dallas Cowboys 2-7). And a couple of key players suffered Injuries in play on Sunday, including Patriots WR Julian Edelman (Foot, will reportedly by having Surgery), Cardinals OL Mike Iupati (Neck), Steelers 3rd-string QB but Sunday starter Landry Jones (Left Ankle), Browns DL Randy Starks (Knee) and Eagles starting QB Sam Bradford (Left Shoulder, AC Joint Sprain) and RB Ryan Mathews (Head), among others. The Edelman injury and potential loss could be big after New England saw RB Dion Lewis (Left Leg) get hurt and go out for the season earlier this month. So before the Week 10 finale (yawn) between this Autumn evening from the Queen City between the Houston Texans and host and unbeaten Cincinnati Bengals (ESPN, 8:25 p.m. EDT/5:25 p.m. PST; Odds: Bengals -11, 47, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook), let’s take a look at this week’s NFL Week 11 Power Rankings.


NFL Rankings (November 15, 2015)
1—New England Patriots
(9-0 SU, 5-2-2 ATS; +225 win Super Bowl, Coral)
Why? The defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots and legendary Head Coach Bill Belichick (160-116-9 ATS) again stayed unbeaten on Sunday, rallying to beat the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey as Stephen Gostkowski connected on a 54-yard FG with just :01 second left in the 4th Quarter to give the defending Super Bowl champions the thrilling 27-26 victory in Week 9. Patriots QB Tom Brady (26/42, 334 yards, 2 TDs, Interception) led the Offense while RB LeGarrette Blount (19 rushes, 66 yards, TD, 3.5 ypc) had another nice game running the ball and New England receivers Rob Gronkowski (5 receptions, 113 yards, TD, 27.6 ypc), Brandon LaFell (2 receptions, 66 yards, 33.0 ypc) and Julian Edelman (4 receptions, 53 yards, 13.3 ypc) all had good games for the Patriots while the latter (Edelman) injured his Foot which may be a problem moving forward as he will reportedly be having surgery. Next up for New England, a date with the Buffalo Bills (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS) at Home at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts next Monday night (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. EST/5:30 p.m. PST) in a massive AFC East showdown and what could be a very exciting primetime game with the Bills and Head Coach Rex Ryan feeling good and coming in on a 2-game Win streak. When the two met last year, the Bills won 17-9 in this meeting here in New England in Week 17 as 5-point underdogs but it’s important to note that the Patriots had already clinched Home-field advantage in the AFC and that Patriots HC Belichick called off the dogs. In the meeting at Ralph Wilson in Buffalo, New England rolled 37-22 as a 1-point underdog and that’s closer to the type of game we may see here, Over and all. The Patriots are 8-12 ATS under the Sunday night lights at Home while the Bills are 7-7 ATS on the Road. The Westgate Las Vegas NFL Games of the Year had the Patriots installed as 6½-point favorites in this contest, so with the Advanced Line at (Patriots minus) 9½, you can see a fairly significant change in perceptions, and after Sunday’s nail-biter the SuperBook has re-opened New England at -7 in what should be an exciting end cap to the Week 10 action. Last Week: 1


2—Cincinnati Bengals (8-0 SU, 7-0-1 ATS; +850 to win Super Bowl, at PaddyPower
Why? In their last game in Week 9, the Cincinnati Bengals and QB Andy Dalton (21/27, 234 yards, 3 TDs) defeated the Cleveland Browns on Thursday Night Football in an AFC North game at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati as the usual offensive suspects—RB Giovani Bernard (13 rushes, 72 yards), RB Jeremy Hill (15 rushes, 52 yards), WR Marvin Jones (5 receptions, 78 yards, 15.6 ypc) and WR AJ Green (4 receptions, 53 yards, 13.3 ypc)—all had solid games while TE Tyler Eifert (5 receptions, 10.6 ypc, 3 TDs) had a great game for the host Bengals and 13-year Head Coach Marvin Lewis (101-95-10 ATS) in Week 9. Coming up tonight (Monday) in Week 10 for Cincinnati and potential NFL MVP candidate Dalton (42-34-1 ATS at Home) is a date with the hapless Houston Texans (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS) on Monday Night Football at Paul Brown Stadium against in which JJ Watt and Houston will come in with 13 Days Rest off their Open Date (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. EST/5:30 p.m. PST; Odds: Bengals -11, 47, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook). The Bengals will come in having a nice 10 Days Rest after playing the Browns on TNF and when these two last met last season at NRG Stadium in Houston, the Texans won and covered as 3-point underdogs (22-13) and these two also met in the AFC playoffs in 2012 where Houson eliminated Cincinnati, 19-13 as 3½-point underdogs in H-Town. The last time these two met here in the Queen City, the Texans (0-7 ATS L7 on Mondays all-time) upset the Bengals, 20-19 covering as 3-point underdogs. The Texans are 6-1 ATS the L7 in the series and 3-1 ATS the L4 in Cincinnati and Houston is 0-3 ATS as a Road Underdog on Monday nights since 1980 while the Bengals are 3-2 ATS as Home Favorite on Mondays. The Westgate Las Vegas NFL Games of the Year installed the host Bengals as 7-point favorites here. Last Week: 2


3—Carolina Panthers (8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS; 6/1 to win Super Bowl, at Ladbrokes)
Why? The Carolina Panthers knocked off the Tennessee Titans in Nashville on Sunday, 27-7 as QB Cam Newton (21/26, 217, TD) had another workmanlike day for the winners, TE Greg Olsen (8 receptions, 80 yards, 10.0 ypc) and Ted Ginn, Jr. (4 receptions, 45 yards) had solid receiving games, RB Jonathan Stewart (22 rushes, 91 yards, TD) led the Cats Rushing attack and steady LB Luke Kuechly (8 Tackles) again led the underrated Carolina Defense. The Panthers have already beaten the Seattle Seahawks (at CenturyLink Field), the Philadelphia Eagles (in Charlotte), the Indianapolis Colts (in Indianapolis) and the Green Bay Packers (at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte on Sunday), back-to-back-to-back-to-back, so this unbeaten season, sweet Regular Season winning streak (12 games) and best start ever has the Panthers and everyone finally paying attention to this talented team. So, is this where the trouble starts? Next up, on Sunday for the Panthers are the Washington Redskins (4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS) in an inter-divisional meeting from Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte (FOX, NFL RedZone, 1 p.m. EST/10 a.m. PST). The last time these two teams played, the Panthers won 21-13 in Landover, Maryland as 3-point underdogs in 2012 while the last meeting here in the Tar Heel State saw the Redskins cover as 5-point dogs in a 20-17 Panthers victory back in 2009. The Redskins are 4-1 ATS the L5 against Carolina in this every-third-year NFC series. The Advanced Line last week had the Panthers as 8½-point chalks here while the new, re-opened SuperBook line (Sunday night) sees host Carolina as 7-point favorites, with Offshore operator Pinnacle hanging a 7½ worth considering for your NFL picks. Last Week: 3

Free NFL Pick: Panthers -7 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)


4—Arizona Cardinals (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS; 8/1 to win Super Bowl, at Bet365)
Why? QB Carson Palmer (29/48, 363 yards, 3 TDs, Interception) and the Cardinals did a number on their NFC West division rivals, the defending NFC champion Seattle Seahawks at CenturyLink Field in Seattle on Sunday night, 39-32, in a game which saw both teams coming in off Bye Weeks and a result which puts the defending NFC champions chances at even making the Playoffs in jeopardy with a 4-5 record. And if that wasn’t a tough enough spot on the schedule, Week 11 offers up another primetime can’t miss affair between two of the current best four teams in the NFL at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale where future NFL Hall of Famer Larry Fitzgerald (10 receptions, 130 yards, 13.0 ypc vs Seattle) and these Cardinals welcome Andy Dalton, AJ Green and the possibly still unbeaten Cincinnati Bengals (8-0 SU, 7-0-1 ATS; vs. Texans on MNF) to the Sonoran Desert for a huge inter-conference showdown (NBC, 8:30 p.m. EST/5:30 p.m. PST). The last time these two teams played, the Bengals won and covered ATS laying 4 points in 2011, 23-16, while in the last meeting here in suburban Phoenix, the host Cardinals won 35-27 and covered s 3-point chalks in 2007. The Cardinals are 3-0 ATS the L3 meetings here but those were significantly worse Bengals teams and 13-year Head Coach Marvin Lewis (101-95-10 ATS) and this Cincinnati team can definitely march in here and pull off the upset, especially with Arizona coming off that rugged clash with the Seahawks in Seattle on Sunday night. Arizona and DB Tyrann Mathieu (Interception vs. Seattle) s a woeful 4-14 ATS at Home at UoP Stadium on Sunday nights while Cincinnati is 2-8 ATS on the Road under the Sunday spotlights, so you can see how much these two teams have improved over the last decade. The Westgate Las Vegas Advanced Line had the host Cardinals installed as 3-point favorites here and that’s also the number which is hanging on the board now Sunday night. Last Week: 5


5—Minnesota Vikings (7-2 SU, 8-1 ATS; 20/1 to win Super Bowl, at Ladbrokes) 
Why? QB Teddy Bridgewater, RB Adrian Peterson and the upstart Vikings went into Oakland on Sunday afternoon and plundered the Raiders, 30-14, grabbing the lead in the NFC North after the Packers lost to the Lions in Green Bay. In the Win, Louisville product Bridgewater was 14-for-22 for just 140 yards—using 9 different Receivers—and a TD through the air, but veteran workhorse RB Adrian Peterson (26 rushes, 203 yards, TD) went off in the Win at Coliseum, including an 80-yard TD gallop and Cordarelle Patterson had a 93-yard KO return for a TD for the Vikings. Next up for Minnesota is a gimpy Aaron Rodgers and those aforementioned rival Green Bay Packers (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) as the Vikings welcome the Packers across the state line to the Land of 10,000 Lakes in the game of the year in the NFC North division so far (CBS, NFL RedZone, 1 p.m. EST/10 a.m. PST). Last year when these two rivals locked horns, the Packers won here at TCF Bank Stadium, 24-21 but failed to cover as 7-point favorites. The Westgate Las Vegas Advanced Line had the Packers at -3 -120 for this game, and currently (Sunday night), Green Bay is just a 1½-point favorite in the NFL odds, so you can see what both the Packers surprise Loss to the Lions at Lambeau Field combined with the Vikings Win over the Raiders in Oakland did to perceptions of the Point Spread. Last Week: 9

6—Denver Broncos (7-2 SU, 5-4-0 ATS; 14/1 to win Super Bowl, Ladbrokes) Last Week: 4
7—Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4 SU, 6-3-1 ATS; 33/1 to win Super Bowl, Paddy Power) Last Week: 10
8—Seattle Seahawks (4-5 SU, 2-6-1 ATS; 10/1 to win Super Bowl, Coral) Last Week: 7
9—New York Jets (5-4 SU, 4-4-1 ATS; 66/1 to win Super Bowl, Coral) Last Week: 8
10—New York Giants (5-5 SU, 6-3-1 ATS; 40/1 to win Super Bowl, Ladbrokes) Last Week: 17
11—Green Bay Packers (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS; 9/1 to win Super Bowl, Coral) Last Week: 6
12—Buffalo Bills (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS; 66/1 to win Super Bowl, Coral) Last Week: 16
13—Oakland Raiders (4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS; 125/1 to win Super Bowl, Ladbrokes) Last Week: 11
14—Indianapolis Colts (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS; 33/1 to win Super Bowl, Ladbrokes) Last Week: 12
15—Atlanta Falcons (6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS; 50/1 to win Super Bowl, Ladbrokes) Last Week: 15
16—Kansas City Chiefs (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS; 80/1 to win Super Bowl, Ladbrokes) Last Week: 20
17—Chicago Bears (4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS; 275/1 to win Super Bowl, Paddy Power) Last Week: 27
18—St. Louis Rams (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS; 125/1 to win Super Bowl, Ladbrokes) Last Week: 13
19—Philadelphia Eagles (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS; 50/1 to win Super Bowl, Paddy Power) Last Week: 14
20—San Diego Chargers (2-6 SU, 4-4 ATS; 500/1 to win Super Bowl, Ladbrokes) Last Week: 19
21—Washington Redskins (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS; 150/1 win Super Bowl, Ladbrokes) Last Week: 25
22—Miami Dolphins (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS; 150/1 to win Super Bowl, Paddy Power) Last Week: 23
23—Dallas Cowboys (2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS; 250/1 to win Super Bowl, Coral) Last Week: 18
24—Houston Texans (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS; 200/1 to win Super Bowl, Coral) Last Week: 24
25—Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS; 500/1 win Super Bowl, Coral) Last Week: 28
26—San Francisco 49ers (2-6 SU, 3-5 ATS; 750/1 to win Super Bowl Ladbrokes) Last Week: 26
27—New Orleans Saints (4-6 SU, 4-5-1 ATS; 200/1 win Super Bowl, Ladbrokes) Last Week: 21
28—Baltimore Ravens (2-6 SU, 2-6 ATS; 500/1 to win Super Bowl, Ladbrokes) Last Week: 22
29—Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6 SU, 4-4 ATS; 500/1 win Super Bowl, Paddy Power) Last Week: 31
30—Detroit Lions (2-7 SU, 2-7 ATS; 500/1 to win Super Bowl, Paddy Power) Last Week: 32
31—Cleveland Browns (2-8 SU, 3-6-1 ATS; 1000/1 to win Super Bowl, Ladbrokes) Last Week: 29
32—Tennessee Titans (2-7 SU, 4-5 ATS; 500/1 to win Super Bowl, Coral) Last Week: 30

NFL WEEK 11 POWER RANKINGS PICKS: Panthers -7 over Redskins, Colts +6 over Falcons, Bears +2½ over Broncos (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

SUPER BOWL 50 FUTURES BOOK PERCEIVED VALUE PICK: Arizona Cardinals 8/1 (at Bet365)

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