Free NFL Picks: Week 10 Betting Value You Must Lay Hands On

Kevin Stott

Thursday, November 12, 2015 12:45 PM GMT

Let’s look at three games on Sunday where there seems to be some value mid-week. See if the Trends, Injuries & recent performances of these teams justify offering them up as NFL picks.

Thursday, November 12, 2015
Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets -3 +105, 43 (Bovada)
The Buffalo Bills (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) head to MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey on Thursday night to face the New York Jets (5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) in this Week 10 AFC East showdown, which is extremely important to both teams. When these two teams met last year, the Bills swept both SU and ATS, winning 43-23 at MetLife as 3-point underdogs and 38-3 as 3-point favorites at Home and Buffalo is 4-1 ATS the L5 in this series, so both the really recent history and recent relevant Trends support backing the underdog here. But with the best Roster they’ve had in years and in a spot where they really need the Win to stay above their opponent and Empire State rival, the Bills, in the AFC East standings, is this a decent spot to fade the upstart Jets? New York will reportedly be starting its usual starting QB Ryan Fitzpatrick here—as opposed to backup QB Geno Smith—so you can see Head Coach Todd Bowles knows how important this one is. The Bills will counter with Tyrod Taylor, who has been dealing with some physical issues of his own, but with RB LeSean McCoy (Shoulder) and electric WR Sammy Watkins (Ankle) back in the fold, and guys like WR Robert Woods and TE Charles Clay, the Bills (26.1 ppg, #8 in NFL) have quietly become a dependable scoring team. Now, if the Defense gets to the level many anticipated when Head Coach Rex Ryan left these Jets for Buffalo last season, then this team could annually challenge for 2nd place in the AFC East (as long as Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are in New England). Yes, that’s where we’re at.

When these two teams met last year, the Bills swept both SU and ATS, winning 43-23 at MetLife as 3-point underdogs and 38-3 as 3-point favorites at Home and Buffalo is 4-1 ATS the L5 in this series. On Thursdays, Buffalo (0-3 ATS the L3 games it has played on Thursdays) is 2-3 both SU and ATS as Road underdogs while the Jets are 3-5 SU and 5-2 ATS as Road favorites. The Westgate Las Vegas renowned NFL Games of the Year released late each Spring had the Bills and WR Sammy Watkins (162 receiving yards on Sunday) open up as 1-point favorites in this game. The Bills can win definitely win this game as the Jets seem to have hit a mini-funk and getting 3 points (Bovada, BetUS, MGM Mirage, Wynn Las Vegas, Coast Casinos) if you can find it now (Wednesday afternoon) or make it (buying the ½ point) looks very tempting here in primetime Thursday at MetLife Stadium.

Free NFL Pick: Bills +3 at Bovada

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Sunday, November 15, 2015
Miami Dolphins vs. Philadelphia Eagles -6, 47 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
The Miami Dolphins (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS) head north to the City of Brotherly Love on Sunday to play the Philadelphia Eagles (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) in an inter-conference matchup which could prove to be a tough setback for the ultimate loser, and could be it for Miami if it loses here and falls to 3-6 with the Patriots, Jets and Bills all ahead of them in the ultra-competitive AFC East. When these two teams last met in 2011 in Miami Gardens, the Eagles won outright 26-10 as 3-point road underdogs, while in the last meeting here in Philadelphia at Lincoln Financial Field in 2007, the Eagles won 17-7, barely covering the 9½-point spread by a mere ½ (point). Head Coach Chip Kelly’s (21-20 ATS) side is a sparkling 5-0 ATS the L5 in this somewhat infrequent series and is worth consideration here on Sunday as they can actually win their lousy NFC East division. Philadelphia’s Jason Peters will miss this game for the hosts but Rookie (USC) WR Nelson Agholor and WR Riley Cooper should be both back ready for this one. They were both at practice on Wednesday as was ILB DeMeco Ryans (Hamstring). Expect Eagles QB Sam Bradford (12-14 ATS at Home) to look for both Cooper and Agholor much if they play along with the usual Skill Position suspects on Philadelphia like RB DeMarco Murray, RB Darren Sproles, TE Zach Ertz, RB Ryan Mathews, TE Brent Celek and WR Miles Austin and for the hosts to outscore  the somewhat punchless Dolphins (21.4 ppg, #21 in NFL). This will be only the Eagles fourth game at Home at Lincoln Financial Field so far this season.

Free NFL Pick: Eagles -6 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

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New England Patriots -7, 54½ (SIA) vs. New York Giants
A late afternoon start for an East Coast game here as the the New York Giants (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS) and QB Eli Manning (44-50-1 ATS at Home) welcome Tom Brady (67-46-1 ATS at Road) and the Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots (8-0 SU, 5-1-2 ATS) to MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey on Sunday afternoon for this Week 10 meeting and re-acquaintance of recent Super Bowl foes in the Garden State. The last time these two met was in 2011 in the Super Bowl—the Giants upset the Patriots, again—while the last meeting in New Jersey was back in 2007 where New England and Brady won 38-35 but failed to cover as huge 13½-point favorites. The Giants are an impressive 6-1 ATS the L7 in this series and a 3-0 ATS the L3 here at Home at MetLife Stadium. But with RB LeGarrette Blount, TE Rob Gronkowski, WR Julian Edelman and WR Danny Amendola and future Hall of Fame Head Coach Bill Belichick (159-115-9 ATS), expect the Patriots (+229 win Super Bowl, Paddy Power) to find a way to get a double-digit win here and probably remain undefeated although they will be without speedy RB Dion Lewis (Knee) who is out for the season it was announced Monday. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook SuperBook has this lined at Patriots -7 in its renowned NFL Games of the Year, so perceptions on both teams were apparently right on? With all of the Patriots key Skill Position players and guys like WR Odell Beckham Jr., WR Victor Cruz and WR Rueben Randle to throw the pigskin to, Manning the Junior and the hosts should be able to score some points here, despite New England’s underrated Defense (143 PA, 3rd lowest in AFC behind Denver, 139 and Cincinnati, 142). So maybe a 37-24 type Final Scoreline here? With the Patriots still driven internally from the embarrassment of the Deflategate fiasco and HC Belichick smelling that Home-field Advantage in the AFC Playoffs yet scared by the still unbeaten Cincinnati Bengals (8-0), expect another focused and workmanlike effort from the champs in the fairly easy cover in this one.

Free NFL Pick: Patriots -7 (SIA)

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NFL WEEK 10 FREE VALUE PICKS: Bills +3 over Jets (Bovada), Eagles -6 over Dolphins (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook), Patriots -7 over Giants (SIA)