Free NFL Picks - Top Against The Spread Week 5 Selections

Doug Upstone

Wednesday, October 5, 2016 5:18 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 5, 2016 5:18 PM UTC

With an 18-7 record, and 72 percent profit after four weeks of action, our expert finds value with league's heavyweights betting odds and shares with the public a trio of bets to keep his winning streak alive. 


Last week I was 2-1 on these NFL ATS picks, taking season record for this particular article to 6-3.

I worked over the NFL betting odds at always popular and A+ rated BetOnline and will offer these selections, which end up being very chalky, which I will explain.


Brady's Back And New England Topples Cleveland

While Bill Belichick might be the best head coach since Bill Walsh in the NFL, he's not invincible, as New England finally could not overcome opponent using backup quarterbacks. Starting this week, Tom Brady is back and while some rust is expected, the Patriots as a group should be very excited to have their field general back and be more ready than usual to face an 0-4 team like Cleveland. The Browns are actually improved and in last three contests were in position to build on a lead or take one and self-destructed in some manner. No question covering 10 points as road favorite is tall task, nevertheless, the Patriots are 12-3 ATS off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite and win by 17.

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Denver's Defense (With help from offense) the Difference at a Mile High

No offense in the NFL is hotter than Atlanta's, averaging 38 points per game. Matt Ryan is completely comfortable in exquisite ball distribution and for the first time in years has a reliable running game, which is averaging 4.7 yards per carry, with a vastly improved offensive line. Even with this, this is Denver we are talking about and if anything, it's defense looks even better with improved secondary play. Matty Ice is expected to see big rush which could rush his throws against tighter coverage from Denver. The other part of this equation is Broncos efficient offense which is fourth in the NFL at 12.3 yards per points, facing Atlanta defense permitting 31 PPG. Denver by 10.

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 Pittsburgh's Pass Attack Send Jets Crashing

It was no surprise a disgusted Steelers teams battered Kansas City after Philly folly the week before. While I do not anticipate Pittsburgh to hang up another 40 points, the return of Le'Veon Bell matters to the Steelers offense and opens up the passing game along with Bell as runner and receiver. New York would seem to have uphill battle in western Pennsylvania. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been appalling, the Jets pass rush could not get to a gimpy Russell Wilson who threw for 288 against them and Gang Green pass defense is 26th in yards allowed and being torched for 9.7 yards per attempt, easily the worst in Roger the Ruler's football league. With Pitt 23-7 ATS at home after gaining 6.5 or more yards a play in their previous game, Steelers by double digits.

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