Free NFL Picks - Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts

Tennessee Titans players gathered around

Nikki Adams

Tuesday, November 15, 2016 8:23 PM GMT

Should NFL bettors buy what the Titans are selling? We preview their upcoming AFC South tilt with the Indianapolis Colts – a battle for first place in the division – and serve up choice NFL picks SU, ATS and Total.

 

  Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts  
 Point Spread Value

Books open with the Colts laying -3 to the Titans but they’ve been nothing short of a disappointment this season. They’re not living up to the standard we’ve become accustomed to, which makes this a bit of a tricky game to handicap for week 11 NFL picks. You wouldn’t think twice laying the Colts in such a matchup in seasons past. Today, with the Colts striking a so-so pose behind a 4-5 SU record on the season, underscored by a 4-4-1 ATS mark that includes a -1.9 losing margin and a -0.1 differential versus the spread, it’s a different story.

Home advantage isn’t what it used to be either: at home they are just 2-2 SU and ATS with an even bigger -2.5 losing margin and -3.8 differential versus the spread. That said, as home chalk they’re a slightly better 2-1-0 ATS with a 2.0 winning margin and -0.7 differential versus the spread. Those came against questionable opponents though, covering as the -1.5 home chalk in a 26-22 win over the Chargers and covering as the -4 home chalk in a 29-23 win over the Bears.

Meanwhile, the Titans are coming off a big win over the Packers at home, momentum that cannot be denied. They are 2-2 SU and ATS on their travels this season with a -0.2 losing margin on average and +3.8 differential versus the spread. Looks like it might be worth hedging bets here and taking the Titans plus the points for week 11 NFL picks.

 

Free NFL Pick: Titans +3 (-105)Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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The Survivor

The last meeting between this pair resulted in a win by the Colts in Nashville, a 34-26 win that saw the Colts close as the +4 road underdogs. It was par for the course, rally. Extending Indianapolis’ run over the Titans to a perfect 10-0 SU in their last ten meetings. Yikes. Think it’s time the Titans get one in the win column, no? This week 11 NFL pick is definitely against the NFL trends that scream a Colts win, so don’t go betting the farm on it.

 

Free NFL Pick: Titans +145Best Line Offered: at WilliamHill

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 Game Total

The Titans are riding a seven-game OVER streak going into week 11. Not all of those OVERs were for the right reasons – i.e. winning accounts or offensive clinics, for instance – but, recently, things are looking up for the Titans. Last week’s 47-25 win over the Packers saw the Titans almost cracked the 48.5 total singlehandedly. In the last five weeks or so, the Titans are averaging 33.7points scored all while conceding 27.8 points per game. Consider those stats plus the quality of Andrew Luck on the opposite side of the field and you get a sense this could be a veritable shootout.

 

Free NFL Pick: Over 52 (-109)Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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