Free NFL Picks for Steelers vs. Jets: SU & on the Total

Nikki Adams

Tuesday, November 4, 2014 4:28 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2014 4:28 PM UTC

Find out what NFL odds are currently trading and where we’ve spotted the value NFL picks for Steelers vs. Jets, as Pittsburgh takes their three-game winning streak on the road in week 10.

Steelers Swagger
Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers are enjoying unprecedented verve and swagger. Few could have predicted 14 touchdowns in three games by Ben Roethlisberger. Put another way, two touchdowns against the Texans and back-to-back six-touchdown accounts against the Colts and Ravens, respectively, which has lifted the Steelers to the top of the offensive charts in total offense.  The overriding question NFL bettors are asking themselves: is Big Ben for real or is this all just a fluke?

Steelers are sat second in the AFC North with a 6-3 SU record, which includes a 4-1 record at home and a 2-2 record on the road. Overall, they’ve outscored opponents 248 to 219 for a plus 29-point differential through nine games. They boast a fourth ranked passing offense with an average of 294.4 yards per game and a 13th ranked rushing offense with 119.1 yards per game. On the defensive side of the ball, the Steelers have room for improvement – they are 19th against the pass with 252.2 yards allowed – a facet Andrew Luck managed to exploit despite the Colts’ loss in week 8 NFL betting. The Steelers are also 11th against the rush with 102.8 yards allowed. Overall, they are averaging 27.6 points per game but conceding 24.3-points.

This incredible run of form began with 30-23 win over Houston Texans in week 7 NFL betting in which the Steelers accumulated 328 yards in total offense (252 passing and 76 rushing). Against the Colts, a game the Steelers were matched as the 3-point home pups on the spread (or thereabouts depending on your choice online sports betting exchange), Big Ben delivered a virtuoso performance as he led the Steelers to a 51-34 win. Of the 639 yards in total offense, Big Ben alone accounted for 522 yards passing and 6 touchdowns all while completing 40-of-49 passes. And last Sunday, that frightening pace continued at the expense of the Ravens as Big Ben went 25-of-37 for 340 yards and 6 touchdowns.


Sputtering Jets 
As spectacular as the Steelers have been, the Jets are spectacularly awful. The Jets are riding a demoralising eight-game losing streak – their lone win on the season a 19-14 win over the similarly hapless Raiders in week 1 NFL betting a distant memory now. Indeed, since that understated, low-scoring opening account, it’s as if the Jets burst at the seams. Six of their last eight subsequent games have cashed on the OVER in total betting, largely down to defensive issues. To put it into numbers, the Jets have been outscored 154-to-252 for a whopping minus 98-point differential. That’s almost an average of 10.8-points margin of defeat per game through nine weeks.

There is an argument to be had about the Jets’ schedule, which frankly is one of the toughest in the league. Since week 2, they’ve only played the best teams in the league this season, all of which are above .500 and include several choice Super Bowl contenders in NFL betting circles. Unfortunately, week 10 NFL odds offers them no reprieve with the hot Steelers coming to town.


NFL Betting Verdict
The current NFL betting landscape doesn’t augur well for the Jets. Bookies send the forest green spurts into their home date with the Steelers at the disadvantage, as the 4-point home dogs. At face value, the fact that the Jets now have Percy Harvin, who enjoyed a good outing last week against the Chiefs; have turned to Michael Vick at centre, which would appear to be a step up from the useless Geno Smith; and have a defense that ranks amongst some of the best in the league according to the numbers, their underdog status would appear to be worth considering for your NFL picks. After all, streaks do end sometimes, even negative ones, sometimes in the unlikeliest moments/matchups as well.

Logically though that’s just wildly optimistic thinking, right. When all those facts have proven to be just semantics, subjective points that simply don’t explain away their atrocious form and flailing confidence,  how that would, all of a sudden, combine for massive upset that would send seismic shockwaves through NFL betting circles is beyond us. No, any chance of the upset by the Jets at home seems negated by the Steelers’ current form and momentum. Granted the Steelers’ incredible run is behind a three-game home stretch. But such momentum and confidence can spill forth onto the road, particularly against a side that simply has failed to launch this season. Steelers as the tempting, 4-point road faves is our choice NFL pick. What’s more, if Big Ben continues to fire at all cylinders, the Steelers alone could account for the low 45.5-point total bookies have rolled out for this game.

Free NFL Picks: Steelers -4.0 and OVER 45.5-points at BetOnline

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