Free NFL Picks: Special Prop Betting Value for Week 16

Matthew Jordan

Wednesday, December 17, 2014 8:29 PM GMT

Wednesday, Dec. 17, 2014 8:29 PM GMT

Cleaned up on the Week 15 Bovada props betting against Browns rookie QB Johnny Manziel last week! Won on both 'under' 230.5 passing yards and 1.5 TDs in his first NFL start. Manziel is a big part of a smaller group of Week 16 Bovada NFL specials.

'Over/Under' 200.5 Passing Yards, 29.5 Rushing Yards and/or 1 Interception for Manziel
Both options are -115 on the passing and rushing yards and the under is a -150 favorite on NFL  odds on the picks. The former Heisman winner didn't have the worst debut in league history as a quarterback but it was close. He was just 10-for-18 for 80 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions in Cleveland's 30-0 whitewashing at home to Cincinnati in Week 15. Manziel rushed five times for 13 yards.

Frankly, he looked like a little kid who was playing among men. Most of his throws were off target as Manziel appeared very shaky in the pocket. But with the Browns (7-7) now out of playoff contention, he gets the call again this week at a Carolina team that needs a win to avoid potentially being knocked out of the playoff chase (happens with a loss and Saints win). Bovada also offers a prop on whether Manziel throws a TD pass this week with yes at -175 and no at +145. And whether the Browns get a first down on their first offensive series is -250 for yes and +170 for no. Cleveland had just five first downs last week and was 1-for-10 on third down. Carolina is No. 12 in total pass defense and has allowed 24 touchdown passes (tied for 21st) and picked off 11 (tied 19th). Carolina has been very good on defense in winning two straight, holding the Saints and Buccaneers to a combined 27 points. The Panthers faced Vikings rookie Teddy Bridgewater in Minnesota in Week 13 and Bridgewater was 15-for-21 for 138  yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions if you are looking for a comparison.

Free NFL Prop Picks: 'Under' both yards, 'over' on interceptions at +120 (it probably pushes) and no in getting a first down in the initial drive. Until Manziel proves something, why not bet against him across the board? I would take yes on a TD pass as it could come in garbage time, however.

 

'Over/Under' 99.5 Receiving Yards for Giants Receiver  Odell Beckham Jr. in Week 16
Both options are -115 on NFL odds. The Giants' rookie from LSU has been a sensation and a lone bright spot in a terrible season for the G-Men. He's got 972 yards in just 10 games, missing the first few of the season due to injury. Beckham also had the most acrobatic catch of the regular season -- maybe any regular season ever. He has five 100-yard games, including the last two: 143 on 12 catches last week in a win over Washington and 130 on 11 catches in Week 14 at Tennessee, another win.  New York is at St. Louis on Sunday, and the Rams have an excellent defense. They are No. 13 against the pass and likely to have Eli Manning under siege all day. St. Louis hasn't allowed a 100-yard receiver since San Diego's Keenan Allen had 104 in Week 12.

Free NFL Prop Picks: 'Under.' Beckham is a future star, but the Rams will game plan specifically to neutralize him.

 

Who wins NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?
Beckham is now the heavy 1/2 favorite, followed by Tampa Bay's Mike Evans (2/1), Carolina's Kelvin Benjamin (7/1) and Cincinnati running back Jeremy Hill (25/1). Evans, one of the preseason favorites for this award at sportsbooks, is having a strong season with 58 catches for 948 yards and 11 touchdowns. However, he hasn't topped 49 yards in the past four games. Benjamin also has slowed since a fast start. Hill, a former teammate of Beckham's at LSU, has too much ground to make up.


NFL Free Prop Picks: Beckham becomes the first Giants OROY -- that incredible catch vs. Dallas is still on everyone's mind.


Will the AFC North's Bengals, Steelers and Ravens All Make the Playoffs?
No is -175 at sportsbooks and yes +135. It's somewhat rare to have three teams from one division make it, but the AFC West had a trio in 2013. You probably are betting on Cincinnati's Monday night game vs. Denver on this prop. If the Bengals win, they are in. If Pittsburgh beats visiting Kansas City on Sunday, the Steelers are in. The Ravens are in with a win and losses by the Steelers and Bengals or losses by the Chiefs and Chargers. Obviously one of the Steelers or Chiefs will lose. Cincinnati can still get in this week with a loss if Kansas City, San Diego and Buffalo all lose on Sunday.

Free NFL Prop Picks: Yes is great value to incluide on your NFL picks this week.

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