Free NFL Picks for Patriots vs. Chiefs Week 4 Betting

Joe Gavazzi

Monday, September 29, 2014 4:21 PM UTC

Monday, Sep. 29, 2014 4:21 PM UTC

When forming our NFL picks for this Monday Night Football matchup, we notice an inflated betting odds total while at the same time, the teams involved aren't expected to produce any fireworks. 

New England Patriots (-3/46-) vs. Kansas City Chiefs 8:30 ET ESPN

With our point spread picks, we are looking to play on a team with a negative net TO margin for the year vs. a team with a positive net TO margin for the year.  Sunday’s losers were the Jacksonville Jaguars with a -4 net TO margin against San Diego and Philadelphia with a -2 net TO margin against San Francisco.  But, the contest tonight speaks to the heart of the article, resulting in the week’s strongest play in this category of NFL picks. 

Kansas City checks in with a 1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS mark covering by a net of 7 points.  Considering they have a -5 net TO margin for the season, that is very impressive.  Meanwhile, New England is 2-1 SU, but 1-2 ATS failing to cover by 3 net points.  But, the fact they have a +6 net TO margin in the face of a 1-2 ATS record is clearly a negative indicator. 

Joining the contrary thinking of our PERCEPTION/REALITY side is the fact that the public loves perennial playoff participant, New England, with HC Belichick/QB Brady tandem.  Not so much love for a KC team who has fallen from grace in the public’s eyes.  The Chiefs were high on the radar screen of the public, when they started 9-0 SU last year.  Since that time, however, this team is 3-8 SU, and has fallen from grace in the eyes of the public. 

Recent current form dictates a reason for solid confidence in this MNF home dog.  After getting blown out on this field in their home opener (26-10) to Tennessee, the Chiefs have excelled each of the last two weeks.  A 24-17 loss at Denver ended with the Chiefs driving for the tying score.  In last week’s 34-15 victory at Miami, they outrushed the Fish 174-141.  That makes it a sum of 307 RY in their last 2 games.

For New England, the season began with a troubling 33-20 road loss at Miami.  In week 2, they bounced back as predicted against a Minnesota team troubled by the RB Peterson situation.  They backed that up by a less than impressive 16-9 victory over lowly Oakland, in which they could only gain 297 total yards.  That speaks volumes about the inability of a passing offense that, despite the leadership of QB Brady, is averaging just 59% completions and only 5.1 yards per attempt.  Issues with a troubled offensive line only complicate the situation. 

Technicals agree with our selection.  Though the Patriots normally step up under the MNF lights, with a 9-4 ATS log, it is more troubling that they enter tonight’s fray with a 1-5 ATS log as road chalk.  Kansas City HC Reid offsets the excellence of New England under the Monday Night lights as Reid is 10-2 ATS following a victory on Monday.  Long- term excellence in KC’s best role seals the deal on our selection of the Chiefs, who are 33-12 ATS when taking points at Arrowhead vs. a foe that is off a victory.

When the PERCEPTION/REALITY situation is joined by fundamental and technical support, it gives us ample reason to side with this live home dog on Monday night.

Please note that NFL scoring spiraled upward to an average of 51.8 PPG in the (12) week 4 games to date.  That is 6.6 PPG higher than the average opening line, resulting in a 9-3 ATS 'over' mark.  But, the fundamental aspects of this game pointing to an improved KC running game in recent weeks and the decline of the New England passing game, lead this bureau to an 'under' opinion on this slightly inflated total.     

Free NFL Pick: Chiefs to cover & the "Under'at Pinnacle Sports

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