Free NFL Picks: Packers -4.5 vs. Bills for Week 15 Betting

Nikki Adams

Thursday, December 11, 2014 1:14 PM GMT

The high-flying Green Bay Packers collide with the Buffalo Bills in week 15 NFL betting, a game sportsbooks are cornering in the visitors camp. Can the Bills defy the odds or do the bookies have it right. Find out as we breakdown this matchup and serve up our NFL picks.

Green Bay (10-3 SU, 3-3 away)
Green Bay Packers are riding the momentum of a five-game winning streak ahead of their clash with the Buffalo Bills in week 15. The Packers have reeled off wins against Chicago, Philadelphia, Minnesota, New England and Atlanta over the course of this winning streak. Most impressively, they've scored 201 points (40.2 PPG) and conceded just 113 points (22.6 PPG) over their last five games both home and away. Say what you will about the Packers being a different road team than they are at home, but since coming off a week 9 bye, they've been unstoppable.

Last week, Aaron Rodgers led the Packers to a 43-37 win, a game in which any shortcomings by his defense the MVP candidate covered almost effortlessly against NFL odds. The obvious question is how does any team stop a guy  that is simply hot right now. Packers accumulated 502 yards of total offense, 323 passing and 179 rushing. Rodgers went 24-of-36 for 327 yards and three touchdowns, no interceptions and just one sack. In the fourth quarter, Rodgers connected with Jordy Nelson for a spectacular 60-yard touchdown pass that lifted the Packers to the 40-24 lead with 10 minutes or so left. Falcons rallied late in the game to close the gap but it was all a little too late.

 

Buffalo Bills (7-6 SU, 4-3 home)
Buffalo Bills are coming off a 24-17 loss to the Denver Broncos at Mile High. Although they lost, they managed to cash as the 10-point underdogs (or thereabouts) against the spread, thanks to a late drive that saw them score a touchdown and close the gap on the scoreboard.

Overall, the Bills have punched above their weight class. They are 7-6 SU on the season, on the fringe of the playoff race. What the Bills have done well is defend. They are top of the league in sacks and they have a stellar pass rush game that has played well against the NFL's stragglers this season and, even, visibly troubled Peyton Manning last weekend as he went for the first time in 51 games without a touchdown pass. Their offense is passable but hardly exciting with Kyle Orton at the helm. That said the veteran has done his best to keep this team afloat and on or slightly above .500.

 

NFL Betting Verdict:
Last week, the Bills defense enjoyed a measure of success against Peyton Manning and Company, so it wouldn't do to underestimate them against the Packers sixth-ranked passing offense. This is a legitimate defense that will do its part to suffocate Aaron Rodgers. That said the MVP frontrunner in the eyes of many is a wily quarterback that can create plays out of nothing. The Packers are well aware of the obstacle the Bills present at home, but they'll still fancy their chances with Rodgers at the helm. Rodgers showed how he can pick up the slack of his defense against the Falcons. That's the difference between these two teams that could be deciding. If he starts firing at all cylinders and finds ways past the Bills defense, it's hard to see Orton keeping up. Green Bay boast a 7-5-1 ATS record overall this season with a 9.1-point margin of victory on average. Bills are 7-6 ATS overall with a 3.1-point margin of victory. Take the Packers on your week 15 NFL picks.

Free NFL picks: Packers -4.5 at 5Dimes

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":290779, "sportsbooksIds":[19,43,227,1096,999996,93,238,123,139], "LineTypeId":5, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]