Free NFL Picks: Packers -10.5 on the Road vs. Bucs

Nikki Adams

Tuesday, December 16, 2014 9:22 PM GMT

Tuesday, Dec. 16, 2014 9:22 PM GMT

Green Bay Packers descend on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in week 16 NFL betting, what is a must-win game for Aaron Rodgers and Company if they hope to keep their postseason hopes alive. Find out what NFL odds are currently trading and where the value NFL picks are to be had.

Green Bay Packers (10-4 SU, 3-4 SU away)
For a second straight week the Green Bay Packers are on the road. Last week the Packers were stunned in Buffalo 21-13, marking the week's biggest upset on the NFL betting trading floor. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers struggled mightily against the gutsy Bills defense. Indeed, the Bills stifled one of the most potent offenses this season and one of the betting favourites for the MVP honours this season as Rodgers went 17-of-42 for just 185 yards and no touchdowns and two interceptions.

Behind the loss, the Packers slipped in the NFC North standings to 10-4 SU and 3-4 SU on the road. Detroit Lions, who beat the Vikings in week 15 NFL betting, improved to 10-4 SU on the season and leapfrogged the Packers into top spot on account of a better head-to-head win percentage. As a result, Packers are down to a wildcard spot for the playoffs, making their next road date with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a must-win game.

On an auspicious note, Green Bay Packers enter their upcoming clash as the prohibitive road favourites, trading at -550 to win straight up and as the whopping -10.5-point favourites on NFL odds. Consider the Packers are a different team on the road this season than at home, the overriding question that must be asked: are the Packers overestimated in this clash?


Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-12 SU, 0-6 SU home)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers are enjoying a four-game losing streak ahead of week 16 NFL betting with losses to Chicago, Cincinnati, Detroit and Carolina.  Overall, the Bucs have provided no joy for their backers on the NFL betting floor this season with an abysmal 2-12 SU record on the season.

At home, the numbers are even worse reading: they are 0-6 SU record at home with losses to Carolina, St. Louis, Baltimore, Minnesota, Atlanta and Cincinnati on their resume. Against the spread, they Bucs may be slightly encouraging at 6-8 ATS overall with an 8.1-point margin of defeat but at home they are merely 1-5 ATS with a 9.3-point margin of defeat.

Absolutely nothing about the Bucs' form or stats suggest they offer any value on your NFL picks as the +425 NFL home underdogs or the 10.5-point home pups against the spread. Therefore, to answer the question asked above: one could argue the Packers aren't overestimated but rather their opponents are simply that bad.


NFL Betting Verdict:
If there were a consensus bet on week 16's NFL betting board, it would have to be a win by Green Bay at the expense of Tampa Bay. Granted the Packers are after a loss to the Buffalo Bills and they boast a disappointing 3-4 SU record on the road this season, which includes a 2-5 ATS mark and a 4.9-point margin of defeat, but we are talking about a date with the hapless Bucs that haven't won a game this season at home. A hiccup in Buffalo can't take the shine off the Packers in NFL betting circles this week, surely.

The date with the Bucs comes at an opportune time for the Packers, when they most desperately need a win to bounce back and give Detroit a run for their money in the NFC North title race. Expect the Packers to bounce back in a big way in Tampa and underline their Super Bowl credentials, not to mention atone for the debacle that was week 15 NFL betting and, in turn, relax their fans. Back the Packers on your NFL picks to both win SU and cover against a Bucs team that has nothing to play for anymore.

NFL Picks: Packers -550 and -10.5 at Bookmaker

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