Free NFL Picks: New Prop Betting Value on Offer for Week 15

Matthew Jordan

Thursday, December 11, 2014 12:49 PM GMT

Thursday, Dec. 11, 2014 12:49 PM GMT

I hit on Week 14 Bovada props that were decided immediately: the Eagles scoring a TD vs. Seattle and Denver's C.J. Anderson rushing for less than 150 yards. Also called the Giants not ending the season on an 11-game skid. Your Week 15 specials:

Johnny Manziel Totals vs. Bengals on Sunday: 230.5 Passing Yards, 1.5 TDs
Both options are -115 on Manziel's 'over/under' yards, while 'under' is -200 on the TD passes with 'over' at +160. Of course the biggest story, sadly, in the NFL for Week 15 is that Johnny Football  makes his highly anticipated first NFL start -- he's just the fifth rookie QB in the past 20 years to get his first start this late in the year. Manziel faces a Cincinnati defense that is No. 21 against the pass in allowing 247.0 yards per game. However, the Bengals are tied with Buffalo for the fewest touchdown passes with just 14 allowed. Cincy did face a rookie QB in Week 9 in Jacksonville's Blake Bortles. He threw for 247 yards and two touchdowns. Manziel can beat teams with his legs, and he has two props in that regard this week: 'over/under' 29.5 rushing yards and +250 that he will score a rushing TD and -325 he will not.

Free NFL Pick: No doubt the Browns are going to go rather conservative and try to run the ball to limit Manziel's exposure in the pocket. Surely there will be designed running plays for him. When Cleveland won 24-3 in Cincinnati on Nov. 6, Brian Hoyer threw for only 198 yards. The Browns won largely because they rushed for 170 yards. That will be the game plan again. Go 'under' on yards and touchdowns, 'over' on rushing yards and no on a rushing score.

 

Will Colin Kaepernick Throw a Fourth-Quarter Touchdown Pass vs. Seattle?
No is -500 with yes at +300. In perhaps the most amazing statistic this season, Kaepernick is the only qualified NFL quarterback not to throw a fourth-quarter score all season. Unbelievable. He has really regressed after getting that big extension this past offseason. In fact, Kaepernick hasn't had a game with multiple TD throws since Oct. 13. He faces a Seattle defense that is No. 1 against the pass. It has allowed just 17 TD passes. On Thanksgiving at home against the Seahawks, Kaepernick threw for just 121 yards, no scores and two interceptions. His most recent in Seattle was last season's NFC title game. He had one TD pass, in the second quarter.

Free NFL Pick: Yes. That's great value to include on your NFL picks. The Niners are desperate because a loss eliminates them from the playoffs most likely. Even if they are getting routed, perhaps Kaepernick throws a garbage-time TD.

 

Who Will Lead the NFL in Touchdown Passes this Season?
Peyton Manning is the +150 favorite on NFL odds, with Andrew Luck at +175 and Aaron Rodgers at +200. Manning and Luck are tied with 36, while Rodgers is one behind. It appears that Manning's Broncos, Luck's Colts and Rodgers' Packers may have to go all out the rest of the way for playoff seeding purposes. So no resting Manning for half a game in Week 17 like Denver did last year when it had the No. 1 seed in the AFC sewn up. The Broncos are in San Diego this week, at Cincinnati next and close vs. Oakland. The Bengals are No. 1 in the NFL in fewest TD passes allowed while the Chargers (18th) and Raiders (21st) are in the bottom half of the league.  Indy hosts Houston (No. 21) this week and closes at Dallas (No. 9) and Tennessee (No. 21). Green Bay is at Buffalo (T1 with Cincinnati) this week and finishes at Tampa Bay (No. 26) and vs.  Detroit (No. 5).

Free NFL Pick: Manning repeats as the touchdown champion.

 

Who Will Be the Starting QB for the Jets in Week 1 of the 2015 Season?
Here are your options and NFL odds: Geno Smith (5/1), Marcus Mariota (6/1), Jameis Winston (9/1), Brian Hoyer (12/1), Michael Vick (12/1), Tim Tebow (33/1) and any other QB (1/2). As things stand right now, the Jets would pick fourth in the 2015 draft, but they can boost their standing by losing in Tennessee on Sunday. Then New York finishes vs. New England and at Miami. That looks like three losses and a 2-14 mark. Marcus Mariota probably goes No. 1 overall and the Jets might not get there. Smith hasn't shown he can be a starter in this league. Vick is a free agent. Tebow is on here just for laughter.

Free NFL Pick: Any other QB. Robert Griffin III anyone? 

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