We have been running down NFL Odds for different rushers, passers and receivers over the past week. I have already released my three best quarterback and receiver props, and it’s reached that time in the week where I look at the three best rushing yard prop values!
Adrian Peterson O/U 1310.5 rushing yards
Adrian Peterson pretty much set the standard for running backs coming off of ACL injuries. After missing the entire 2014 season, Peterson came back with a vengeance last season rushing for nearly 1500 yards and 11 touchdowns. He added 30 catches for 222 receiving yards for one of his best seasons ever, and now the 31-year-old is entering his 10th season with a yards total of just over 1300.
You can look at this prop in a couple of different ways. The first is that Peterson won’t run the ball 327 times this year. His age raises his injury risk, and the Vikings improved passing game this offseason could lead Teddy Bridgewater to throw the ball, or even run it more when plays break down. The Vikings could also play a conservative approach to Peterson, who will hit 2500 carries some time this season.
However, the Vikings also spent the offseason beefing up their offensive line, and they are going to need Peterson averaging 4.5 yards per carry again if they want to get to the playoffs. Plus, the passing upgrades could also lead to more room for Peterson, as defenses will now have to not only respect Bridgewater’s running but his passing as well. I see things like the latter, so the over might be a solid NFL pick if Peterson stays healthy.
Doug Martin O/U 1175.5 rushing yards
Doug Martin was looking like a one-hit wonder until last season. He posted 1454 yards his rookie season, then injuries ad inconsistency hit over the next two seasons. However, in 2015 Martin ran 288 times for just over 1400 yards, in what looked like an improved season for the Bucs. However, they fired Lovie Smith, and now with Jameis Winston entering his sophomore season, the Bucs may change their game plan some.
Smith was the reason they were running the ball more last season, and in a year where Tampa may regress, they may not be playing with the lead as much this season. If the Bucs are falling behind earlier in games, Martin is not going to see the same looks. The Bucs have a pretty good passing game with lots of options, so while I think Martin will be over 1000 yards for NFL odds this season, he might not hit 1200 or more I 2016.
Ezekiel Elliott O/U 1110.5 rushing yards
Ezekiel Elliott was a force in college, and that led the Cowboys to spend a very high pick on him in the first round of the 2016 draft. Expectations are sky-high for the rookie running back, as is evidenced by his yards total of just over 1100 yards. I’ve been hearing all the talk about Elliott getting 300 carries his rookie season, but tat is one way to ensure he doesn’t make it past year four of his career. I was a believer in Todd Gurley last season for several reasons, but Elliott doesn’t offer the same upside.
One, he plays in a much better passing offense. The Rams didn’t have any other option other than to run the ball, and while the Dallas offensive line is very good, they are going to be pass protecting a lot for Tony Romo and company. Another factor is the Rams didn’t have any other backs last season. The Cowboys have Darren McFadden coming off a season of almost 1100 yards, and he will easily still be in the 150-200 carry mark if healthy this season.
Dallas also signed Alfred Morris this offseason, who has posted at least 200 carries per year in his first four years. You don’t sign a guy like Morris, and still, have McFadden if you are planning on giving Elliott that much work. I’m seeing less than 200 carries for Elliott this season, and there is no way he goes over his yards prop with less than 200 carries so take that into account when betting at sportsbooks.
Read More On Prop Betting Here: NFL Picks On Receiving Yards Season Prop - Three Names That Sportsbooks Highlight To Lead The League