Free NFL Picks: Lay the Points as Eagles Serve Cold Fish in Philly

Kevin Stott

Wednesday, November 11, 2015 5:06 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 11, 2015 5:06 PM UTC

The Dolphins head north to Philadelphia this weekend to face the Eagles in a big Week 10 inter-conference affair for both teams. Let's review the NFL odds and choose some picks.

Odds Overview
Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles [Sunday 18:00] (CBS, Directv 706, NFL RedZone, 1 p.m. EST/10 a.m. PST): The Miami Dolphins (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS) head to the Keystone State on Sunday afternoon to face the Philadelphia Eagles (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) at Lincoln Financial Field in a big inter-conference Week 10 meeting from both teams. Currently, the Dolphins are 2½- (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) to 3-point favorites in sportsbooks here in Las Vegas, Offshore and Online with the Total at 42½ to 43 almost everywhere. On the Moneyline, the Eagles are -225 favorites with the Redskins +188 on the takeback (Pinnacle). The Miami Dolphins Team Total is 20½ (at Ladbrokes) for this game, while the Philadelphia Eagles Team Total has been set at 26½ (Ladbrokes). The Advanced Line from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook here in Sin City had this game lined at (Eagles minus) 5½. Other niche NFL odds like First Half and Props bets will come out later in the week, as always.


Miami Dolphins
The positivity too many sports bettors showed for the Miami Dolphins (171 PF-206 PA) is turning to an ugly reality now as the strength of the Miami schedule is starting to really hit home. Last week in Week 9 play, the Dolphins were beaten by the Bills in Buffalo, 33-17 as QB Ryan Tannehill (27/36, 309 yards, 0 TDs) and the Miami Offense was somewhat held in check with RB Lamar Miller leading the team in both Rushing and Receiving yards in the humbling at Ralph Wilson Stadium. For Miami and new Head Coach Dan Campbell—Joe Philbin was fired last month with a poor showing in London being the capper—and Tannehill (12-15 ATS on Road) to flourish on Offense, guys like Jarvis Landry, Greg Jennings, Kenny Stills, Jordan Cameron, Rishard Matthews and Rookie DaVante Parker (Injured) will have to find ways to get the ball in the End Zone while Ndamukong Suh and the Dolphins (200/1 to win Super Bowl, Betfair Sportsbook) Defense also need to play a little bit better to even achieve the the level of hype many prognosticated this season. Playing in the same division (AFC East) as Tom Brady and the Super Bowl champion New England Patriots, Darrelle Revis, and the New York Jets and Sammy Watkins and the Buffalo Bills twice each season is certainly not for the feint of heart. On the Injury front for Miami, DT AJ Francis (Back), Rookie (Louisville), WR DeVante Parker (Foot) and S Jordan Kovacs (Knee) are all listed as Questionable for Thursday while T Ja’Wuan James (Toe) is expected to return later this month. DE Dion Jordan (Suspension) is out for the season while two Dolphins are on the Injured-Reserve List: S Louis Delmas (Knee) and DE Cameron Wake (Achilles).


Philadelphia Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles (193 PF-164 PA) and third-year Head Coach Chip Kelly (21-20 ATS) had a very big win at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas on Sunday in Week 9, topping the Dallas Cowboys, 33-27, as QB Sam Bradford (25/36, 296 yards, TD), RB DeMarco Murray (18 rushes, 83 yards, TD; 6 receptions, 78 yards) and WR Jordan Matthews (9 receptions, 133 yards, TD) all had big games for the visitors who pulled to the .500 mark and now sit ½ game behind the New York Giants (5-4) in the NFC East race. On top of all of this talent on Offense, the Eagles (25/1 to win Super Bowl, Betfair Sportsbook) and Oklahoma product Bradford also have guys like veteran RB Darren Sproles, TE Zach Ertz, RB Ryan Mathews, TE Brent Celek, WR Miles Austin and more, so explosiveness on Offense is always a capability and if this team could get into a groove, stop dropping passes and making stupid mistakes...well, they could make the Playoffs and win this crappy division. On the Injury front, LB DeMeco Ryans (Hamstring), T Jason Peters (Back), DE Brandon Bair (Groin) and Rookie (USC) WR Nelson Agholor (Leg) are all listed as Questionable for this game while Philadelphia has six players now sitting on the Injured-Reserve List: K Cody Parkey (Groin), DB JaCorey Shepherd (Knee), LB Travis Long (Knee), T Andrew Gardner (Foot) and David Molk (Bicep).


Series Numbers, Recent Relevant Trends and Game Expectations
When these two last met in 2011 in Miami Gardens, the Eagles won outright 26-10 as 3-point road underdogs while in the last meeting here in Philadelphia at Lincoln Financial Field in 2007, the Eagles won 17-7, barely covering the 9½-point spread by ½ (point). Head Coach Chip Kelly’s side is a sparkling 5-0 ATS the L5 in this somewhat infrequent series and is worth consideration here as they can actually win their lousy NFC East division. As far as some other Trends, the Under is 12-3 ATS the L15 games played in Week 10, the Under is 11-4-1 ATS the L16 Dolphins games in the month of November and the Under is 6-2 ATS in the L8 Eagles games overall. The Eagles are 6-2 ATS their L8 overall against teams with a losing record while the slumping Dolphins—bet against this fading team through Week 17—are a woeful 3-10 ATS the L13 overall and the Eagles 8-1 ATS in their L9 November game after Sunday night’s win over the Cowpoke at Jerry World in Big D. The Dolphins are a warm-weather team and will be heading north to fairly cold and hostile Philadelphia in mid-November, and that alone seems like it should be worth around 3-4 points in this particular situation. Expect the Philadelphia key Offensive Skill position players—Bradford, Sproles, Mathews, Matthews, Ertz, Celek, Austin and Riley Cooper—to all have nice games here in a fairly high-scoring and competitive for maybe the first half or so affair in the City of Brotherly Love.

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Eagles 30 - Dolphins 20
NFL WEEK 10 FREE PICKS: Eagles -6 -108 (at Pinnacle), Over 46½ (South Point)

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