Free NFL Picks - Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs​​​​​​​

Nikki Adams

Tuesday, November 1, 2016 8:42 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 1, 2016 8:42 PM UTC

The flailing Jacksonville Jaguars are under the cosh and facing a tough date with Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead, in which they have ZERO hope. Here’s our prediction complete with NFL picks.

  Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs


ATS Pick

The Jaguars are 3-4-0 ATS, a statistic that may provide NFL bettors something to hang their hats on as they contemplate shading the Jaguars on their week 9 NFL picks. Especially with all the injury woes to hit the Chiefs all of a sudden. Upon closer inspection, it’s a very deceiving stat and it belies the Jaguars’ sad tale on the season. To begin with, the 3-4-0 ATS mark includes a whopping -8.1 losing margin on average and a -6.5 differential versus the spread. On the road, they are just 1-2-0 ATS – the only cover coming in a 17-16 win over the Chicago Bears, all while trading as the +2.5 road underdogs. Crucially, the last two games have seen the wheels come off well and truly. The losses weren’t even as close as the NFL odds makers had it: Jaguars (-2) lost at home to Raiders 33-16 and Jaguars (+3) lost on the road to Titans 36-22 in TNF. The way the Jacksonville stacks up right now, it would take a ballsy bettor to make a play for the Jaguars against the spread, never mind straight up.


Free NFL Pick: Chiefs -8 (-110)Best Line Offered: at WilliamHill

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SU Pick

What hope do the Jacksonville Jaguars have at Arrowhead, really? After an undisciplined loss to a middling Titans team in Thursday Night’s Primetime clash, the Jaguars slip to 2-5-0 SU mark with a -8.1 losing margin on average and a -6.5 differential versus the spread. On the road, they are 1-2 SU with a -12.3 losing margin on average and a -9.5 differential versus the spread. In a nutshell, not even a sliver of hope. Yes, the Chiefs have injuries and it’s possible Alex Smith, Spencer Ware and Jamaal Charles are all out for Sunday’s clash. Still, Nick Foles is an able backup that knows how to get the job done. He did admirably in relief last week and should do so again. If not, turnover machine Blake Bortles can be relied upon to botch the job, perhaps. Heck, just look at the NFL odds trading on this matchup and you get the sense of just how little confidence there is in the Jaguars even against theoretically banged up Chiefs side.

 Free NFL Pick: Chiefs -475Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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Total Pick

The Kansas City Chiefs are the most unassuming side in the NFL, which earns them a lot of flak. Tough crowd. Still, they get the job done. They are a balanced team on both sides of the ball and the sum total of their parts makes them a good football team. Sure, they’re not flashy. They might not have the pizzazz of some of the popular teams such as the Patriots and Packers, for instance. Or, for that matter, the burgeoning Oakland Raiders in the AFC West. What they lack, they more than make up for with simple no nonsense football. It’s not surprising the Chiefs have the lowest OVER record in the league, at 2-5-0 with a -3.1 differential versus the total. That’s just above 70% conversion on the UNDER. Two things, however, have us going against the NFL betting trend a) Nick Foles might potentially start and he can liven up the offense a bit more than Alex Smith does and b) the Jaguars fired their offensive coach so one assumes we might see them come out of their comma in week 9.

Oh, then there is the 5-2-0 OVER record on the season by the Jaguars, thanks largely to the inconsistency of their defense which is leaking 28 points per game on average. That’s almost ten more points than the offense is producing (19.9). Worryingly those numbers don’t look to be decreasing if the last two games were any indication – the Jaguars were blown out by 14 and 17 point losing margins. Yikes. Chiefs may not be the quintessential explosive offense but they sure know how to exploit opposing teams’ weaknesses.


Free NFL Pick: Over 45.5 (-110)Best Line Offered: at WilliamHill

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