Free NFL Picks: Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Giants

Joe Gavazzi

Monday, November 3, 2014 4:52 PM GMT

Find out how this expert NFL handicapper predicts this MNF non-conference matchup will results, as it features a couple of gun slingers in NYG QB Manning and Indy QB Luck.

Indianapolis Colts (-3/50) vs. NY Giants 8:30 ET ESPN
This MNF non-conference matchup features a couple of gun slingers in NYG QB Manning and Indy QB Luck.  With each team coming off a loss, it brings into play the resiliency of these teams behind their respective signal callers. Under QB Manning, the Giants are 12-4 ATS following a defeat.  The numbers for Indy are even more impressive, as they are 14-1 ATS following a loss as favorite, while under the guidance of QB Luck, Indy is 11-1 SU ATS coming off a loss (1-1 ATS TY). 

The Giants have been through mini-streaks this season.  Shifting gears to a west coast offense, they faltered badly from the gate with a 0-2 SU ATS start, with a 35-14 loss at Detroit and 25-14 loss at home to Arizona.  They righted the ship against sub .500 opponents in going 3-0 SU ATS by a combined score of 105-51 against Houston, Washington and Atlanta.  Two road games against quality division foes, Philly and Dallas, saw them out distanced by a combined score of 58-21.  Now, they have had a week of rest as they look to turn around their momentum once again.  With games in the next 3 weeks vs. Seattle, San Fran and Dallas, tonight’s outcome may clearly define the momentum for the 2nd half of their season.  In their 31-21 loss at Dallas two weeks ago, the G Men were outrushed 156-104.  That contributed to their deficit at the point of attack, which has seen them be outrushed 122/4.4 to 113/3.7.  In 7 games, they are being outgained 384 to 333 by an average of 6.4 to 5.3 YP play.  That -1.1 YP play is the biggest negative margin in the league.      

Indy was cruising along on a 5-0 SU ATS run, outscoring the opposition 165-75. That followed a 0-2 SU start with losses to Denver and Philly.  That winning streak was highlighted by a 27-0 shutout of the Bengals on their home field 2 weeks ago.  In that game, they won the yardage battle 506-135.  In so doing, they reached the NFL pinnacle of being No. 1 in the league in BOTH yards gained and yards allowed.  The old NFL adage that what goes up must come down is never more true than in the Colts’ game at Pittsburgh last week. The Steelers exploded for a 51-34 victory in which they totaled 639 yards, including 522 through the air.  Despite that defeat, the Colts enter tonight still averaging 33 PPG in their most recent 6 games.  Before placing your NFL pick tonight, please realize that it is never easy to suit up the week following a battle vs. the rugged Steelers.  NFL teams are 18-40 ATS the week following a clash with the Steelers, including 8-29 ATS, if this week’s foe is a losing team.   Despite their debacle at Pittsburgh, it should be noted that Indy continues to outgain the opposition by a notable 451-352, which remains the largest margin in the league.

In the final analysis, I will shade the NY Giants as MNF home dog on NFL odds.  But, the stronger play here may be the OVER.  Again on Sunday, 7 of the 11 games exceeded the posted total with 6 of them totaling 54 or more points.  Noting that primetime games are 21-6 to the OVER this season, and that QB Manning and QB Luck figure to feature an evening of flying footballs, it would seem most advisable to make the OVER the stronger play on MNF.   

Free NFL Pick: Bet over 50 at BetOnline

Check out all our free NFL picks for Week 9 for Colts vs. Giants:

Opening Odds Analysis for Monday Night's Colts vs. Giants

Huge Value on Giants Over Colts for Monday Night Football Picks

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