Free NFL Picks: How to Bet the Largest Totals Posted For Week 13

Matthew Jordan

Sunday, December 6, 2015 1:21 PM UTC

Sunday, Dec. 6, 2015 1:21 PM UTC

A 2-1 mark Week 12 on largest totals as I hit on NYG-WAS & SD-JAX but missed on NO-HOU as the Saints managed only 6 points. Here are 3 of the highest Week 13 totals on NFL odds board.

Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints 
I have no idea which Saints team shows up here. New Orleans actually played fairly well defensively in Week 12 in a 24-6 loss in Houston, the first game for new Saints defensive coordinator Dennis Allen. But New Orleans failed to score a touchdown for the first time ever under Drew Brees, and his streak of 45 straight games with a touchdown pass came to an end. Let those Sean Payton departure rumors start up again (I'll be shocked if he's not with Dolphins next season). Carolina's defense is among the NFL's best and returned two interceptions for touchdowns in a Thanksgiving Day rout in Dallas. The Carolina offense probably only has one guy a casual football fan could even name and that's quarterback and MVP candidate Cam Newton.  Yet the Panthers have scored at least 27 points in every game other than the first two of the season. They have topped 30 in three of the past four. It should be noted that Carolina's 15-game regular-season winning streak began when the team was left for dead at 3-8-1 last season but went to New Orleans and routed the Saints 41-10. Carolina beat visiting New Orleans 27-22 in Week 3 this year, but the Saints had to start Luke McCown as Brees missed his first game as a Saint due to injury. With a victory this week, Carolina would tie the sixth-longest regular-season win streak in NFL history. Obviously no weather worries in the Superdome.

'Over.' It has hit in eight of Carolina's past nine vs. the NFC. It is 10-3 in the Panthers' past 13 on the road. The 'over' is 4-0 in the Saints' past four vs. the NFC.

NFL Pick: Over 49.5 at Bet365

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Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers 
The best quarterback in this game? That would be 40-year-old Matt Hasselbeck of the Colts. OK, I'm kidding as it's obviously Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger. But Hasselbeck is 4-0 as a starter and has completed 64.7 percent of his passes in place of an injured Andrew Luck for 1,023 yards, seven touchdowns and just two picks -- all four Hasselbeck starts have been in a dome (two at home, at Houston, at Atlanta). That's a rating of 94.4. By comparison, Roethlisberger's rating is 93.9. Just saying. And Big Ben will play. He suffered a concussion in last Sunday's loss at the Seahawks, where Big Ben torched supposedly the NFL's best secondary for 456 yards, but has been cleared. Roethlisberger might be licking his chops for this game as in Week 8 last year, Big Ben had a career day with 522 yards and six touchdown passes in a 51-34 home victory. Indy ranks 26th in total defense this season and 27th against the pass.  It will be about 30 degrees at kickoff on Sunday night.

'Under' simply because of the cold -- and because Hasselbeck will struggle outdoors. If this game were in September, a different story. The 'under' is 14-3 in the Colts' past 17 December games. The  'under' has hit in eight of Pittsburgh's past 10 vs. the AFC.

NFL Pick: Under 49 at Heritage

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Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 
Here are two NFC South teams, separated by about 450 miles on Interstate 75, that are heading in opposite directions. Atlanta was the talk of the NFL with a 5-0 start, but three of those were somewhat fortunate victories and that start clearly was fool's gold. The Falcons have dropped five of their past six and the offense has gone into hiding, failing to score more than 21 points in any of those (and being held to 10 twice). Matt Ryan has looked nothing like a franchise quarterback in that stretch, throwing killer interception after killer interception. His four red-zone picks  lead the NFL. Atlanta will get starting running back Devonta Freeman back after he missed last Sunday's loss to Minnesota, but Freeman has really slowed down as well. Tampa has won three of five and could get to .500 here. Jameis Winston has only three interceptions in those five games compared to seven in the first three. Tampa went to Atlanta on Nov. 1 and pulled a 23-20 overtime upset. The Bucs forced four turnovers and won despite only 290 total yards compared to 496 for the Falcons. Ryan threw for 397 and two scores but had a pick and lost a fumble. The Bucs haven't swept the Falcons in eight years. Beautiful day in Tampa on Sunday.

'Under.' The  under is 5-0-1 in the Falcons' past six in the NFC South. It is 11-1 in their past 12 after a loss. The 'under' is 5-1 in the Bucs' past six inside the division. The 'under' is 5-2 in the past seven meetings in Tampa.

NFL Pick: Under 46 at Bovada

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