Free NFL Picks - Game By Game O/U Predictions For Week 1

Nikki Adams

Tuesday, September 6, 2016 3:01 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 6, 2016 3:01 PM UTC

In this space we offer up a total view for each and every game in week 1 of the NFL 2016 season. Find out where we’re spotting the OVER and the UNDER on our NFL picks.

NFL Week 1 Preview
It’s a jam-packed slate for week 1 of the NFL season, a slew of blockbuster matchups to spot beginning with Thursday’s Super Bowl rematch between the Panthers and Broncos at Mile High, followed by several divisional rivalries getting underway on Sunday. Sunday Night Football serves up the New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals sans Tom Brady and Monday Night Football rounds up the first week with a double-header the Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Redskins followed by Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers. It should be a right cracker of a week.


Nikki Adams Preseason Game-by-Game Record SU, ATS and Total
SU 33-31-0
ATS 30-31-1*
Total 30-29-3*

*Two games omitted in week 1 due to absence of NFL odds at the time of writing

In this column, we serve up our week 1 NFL picks with a view towards the total betting markets. Where are we spotting the OVER and UNDER? Find out as we analyze each and every matchup and serve up our NFL betting verdict.


Make Sure You Check Our List Of The Top Rated Sportsbooks


Thursday, September 8, 2016

Carolina Panthers vs. Denver Broncos
Sports Authority Field at Mile High, 8:30 PM ET
It’s the Super Bowl rematch between the Panthers and Broncos on Thursday Night Football, kicking off the NFL 2016 season with aplomb. It’s the first time since 1970 that a Super Bowl rematch ushers in the new season. Who will win this time? Will it be the hosts defending their turf and Lombardi or will it be the Panthers getting their revenge? [Insert dramatic shiver].

Broncos won the football showpiece 24-10 largely behind a defensive effort. Going into 2016 the Broncos have the same look on defense but on offense there are significant changes. Mainly, quarterback Trevor Siemian earning the starting job. Panthers are largely the same team that went 17-1 SU last season and pushed all the way to the finale.

With defense being Denver’s strength and Siemian having hardly any tangible experience the total currently trading on this game is on the lower end, hovering around 41 points. It’s worth mentioning bookmakers opened on 43 points but that NFL line whittled down on the strength of overwhelming UNDER betting that has everything to do with the way the Broncos ran their 2015 campaign and won the bulk of the NFL schedule behind the league’s top defense.

The NFL betting trend is a telling sign the public expects a grinding and low-scoring affair. For our money, with the NFL line dropping continuously, we’re of the opinion the OVER might now be the value NFL pick. Consider the Panthers have had an entire offseason to review what they did wrong and how to put up points against the Denver defense (they do have the offensive weapons to do so and Cam Newton was a touch T-off after the loss). Consider as well there is a strong possibility of rookie mistakes from Siemian that could potentially convert into scoring plays for the Panthers. All that and, sometimes, fading the public is the smart bet.

Free NFL Pick: Over 40.5 (-105) 
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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Sunday, September 11, 2016

Green Bay Packers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
EverBank Field, 1 PM ET
The Packers and Jaguars collide in a matchup that is expected to be a shootout by many NFL betting experts and fans alike. Aaron Rodgers has Jordy Nelson back and a fitter, slimmer Eddie Lacy at his disposal. While Blake Bortles has a stockpile of receivers to target. Both teams can ratchet up the points and light up, but the onus will be entirely on the Jaguars to make a statement against an established Super Bowl favorite. This could be a right cracker.

Free NFL Pick: Over 47.5
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3011196, "sportsbooksIds":[169,19,1096,93], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]


Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens
M&T Bank Stadium, 1 PM ET
The Ravens put in a solid preseason which many feel is a signal of intent in what is widely expected to be a bounce back season. Buffalo Bills punched above their weight class last term and there are those that have Rex Ryan’s side trending negatively in 2016. Consider their preseason did leave much to be desired (brutal springs to mind) and they were held pointless in their last outing. Granted Ryan shelved his starters for the final week but what we did see (the very little) of his starters during the month of August suggests a lack of rhythm and form.

Free NFL Pick: UNDER 44.5 (-105) 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3011200, "sportsbooksIds":[169,19,139,180], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]


Chicago Bears vs. Houston Texans
NRG Stadium, 1 PM ET
Texans defense is no slouch and it’s a major focal point of this team. However, Brock Osweiler’s debut is one of the most talked about events in the first week of the NFL and it could prove to be the headliner in this game when all is said and done. From what we’ve seen of Peyton Manning’s understudy he’s taking to Bill O’Brien’s scheme and the Texans offense like duck to water. Consider the Bears defense is hardly anything to fear either, Osweiler’s debut should be a rollicking affair with lots of time and many options to throw down the field to his heart’s content.

Free NFL Pick: Over 43.5 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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Cleveland Browns vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Lincoln Financial Field, 1 PM ET

The Browns barely struck an audible chord in the preseason and tallied up one of the lowest offensive accounts, which is a worrying sign for those unfortunate Cleveland fans, who are frankly sick and tired of being the laughing stock of the NFL. Suffering silently for the lack of viable football in their beloved city and then having to enviously look over to their neighbors in Cincy lap up success is frustrating, to say the least. But this was supposed to be a new beginning. So much for that lofty hope.

 It’s a new beginning for the Eagles too, a new chapter set to get underway in week 1 of the season. It’s up in the air whether Philly fans will have any joy in 2016, despite a solid preseason. Sam Bradford, who enjoyed the bulk of the snaps, was packed off to Minnesota this weekend, meaning an unheralded quarterback will lead the Eagles onto Lincoln Field.

So, to sum it up: new coaching staffs and RGIII with the Browns vs. Carson Wentz or Chase Daniel with the Eagles. It’s a tossup between the OVER and UNDER, really. That said the game did open on 45 points but whittles down to 41 points now by the sheer volume of UNDER bets. Perhaps, the OVER should be the smart NFL pick from here on?

Free NFL Pick: OVER 41 (-105) 
Best Line Offered:  at Heritage

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Georgia Dome, 1 PM ET

Oddsmakers roll out a high 47.5-point total for the NFC South showdown between the Bucs and Falcons in week 1 of the regular season. Public bettors are split down the middle here and that has kept this line rather stationary since open doors. Suppose UNDER bettors are looking mainly at Julio Jones’ being questionable as a concerning sign. It does takes some of the shine off of Matt Ryan and the Falcons’ offense as they look to snap a two-game losing streak to the Bucs at the Georgia Dome on Sunday. Turnovers and a leaky defense though were part of the downfall of the Falcons last season as well, not just an inability to translate yards into meaningful points. Dan Quinn is a defensive guru but his Falcons are still a far cry from the Legion of Boom he left behind at CenturyLink. Those struggles on defense make a case for the OVER, along with the Bucs and second-year quarterback Jameis Winston and his O-line. It’s a tossup but, push comes to shove, we’re going for the UNDER in our NFL picks.

Free NFL Pick: UNDER 48 (-105) 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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Minnesota Vikings vs. Tennessee Titans
Nissan Stadium, 1 PM ET

Will the Vikings debut newly acquired Sam Bradford on Sunday when they descend on the Titans or will they turn to backup Shaun Hill while Bradford learns the ropes? It could be a difference-maker to some extent, obviously. Where the Vikings dominate though is on defense and running the ball. That’s what they are built for and they’re sure to give Marcus Mariota, newly acquired DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry something to think about. For our money, we’re going for the UNDER (The Vikings were top UNDER performers in 2015.)

Free NFL Picks: UNDER 41 (-105)
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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Cincinnati Bengals vs. NY Jets
MetLife Stadium, 1 PM ET

With the Bengals losing Hue Jackson and key offensive components it’s hard to tell what to expect from Andy Dalton and his O-line this week. Then again, perhaps, we’re making too much of that aspect when the Bengals have one of the most talented receiving corps in the game. What we can’t overestimate is the Jets defense, which gave everyone headaches last term. Importantly, the Jets remain largely unchanged from the side that finished 10-6 SU. In fact, they look better with the additions they made on both sides of the ball particularly with acquiring Matt Forte. For our money, we’re not willing to bet against a good defense at home.

Free NFL Picks: UNDER 42 (-105) 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3011201, "sportsbooksIds":[169,19,139,1275], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]


Oakland Raiders vs. New Orleans Saints
Mercedes-Benz Superdome, 1 PM ET

The New Orleans Saints defense has been linked to Swiss cheese over the past few seasons somebody really should work out a marketing deal for the D-line with the manufacturers. After all, it’s only fair they make something for the free promotion. Why such a tongue-in-cheek comment, you may be wondering? Because the total on this game is a staggering 51 points at the time of writing, up from an opening 50 points. You can bet the Swiss cheese defense plays a significant part in this market outlook. Well, so does Drew Brees, even though he’s pushing 38 years of age. Oh, and Derrek Carr and a burgeoning young offensive line for the Raiders deserve some credit for this high total. Simply put, the sum total of all these parts has everybody considering a right shootout at the Superdome.

Free NFL Picks: OVER 51 (-105) 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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San Diego Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Arrowhead Stadium, 1 PM ET

San Diego Chargers were a mess last season and on the verge of fleeing the Bay Area. Come 2016, they’ve failed to make meaningful changes to their roster, not to mention finding a new stadium to house them. So they remain in San Diego and fans can look forward to more of the same probably: great play from Philip Rivers complemented by middling talent. Too harsh? Perhaps, but it’s a widely held opinion so don’t go hating on the messenger. Week 1 pits the Chargers against the Chiefs, who finished the season hot on the trot. Arrowhead isn’t a forgiving place for most teams and it boasts one of the loudest, raucous crowds in the league. It’s really going to be a challenge for Rivers to move his offense in such an environment.

Free NFL Picks: UNDER 44.5 (-105)
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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Miami Dolphins vs. Seattle Seahawks
CenturyLink Stadium, 4:05 PM ET

The Seattle Seahawks are massive home favorites against the Miami Dolphins when the pair kick-off their respective 2016 campaigns at Century Link. In fact, the game opened with the Seahawks as touchdown favorites but they’ve been bet up to 10.5 points. That’s a lot to do with how well Russell Wilson and the O-line played towards the end of last season. As well, we’d wager, the unpredictability of Ryan Tannehill, who boasted a 24:12 TD-Interception ratio last season. Still, both sides have defenses that can’t be overlooked, which is why the total is rather low on this game, hovering around 44-points.

Free NFL Picks: UNDER 44.5 (-105) 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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Detroit Lions vs. Indianapolis Colts
Lucas Oil Stadium, 4:25 PM ET

The Lions and Colts have their fair share of issues going into 2016. Lions are without Megatron, which takes the shine off of their O-line. Andrew Luck, meanwhile, still doesn’t look to have enough protection on offense. Defensive woes add to the uncertainty that prevails with both teams as well. Still, Matthew Stafford and Andrew Luck can turn this into a shootout.

Free NFL Picks: OVER 50.5 (-110) 
Best Line Offered: at JustBet

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NY Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys
AT&T Stadium, 4:25 PM ET

The G-men could barely move the ball in the preseason while the Cowboys are debuting a rookie quarterback in week 1. Yet, somehow, bookies opened this game on a high 49-point total. That has since come down as the public pounds the UNDER in early betting markets, which makes sense. Until these offenses are proven the UNDER looks to be the better bet, even at the newfangled low of 46.5-points found trading with several top-rated sportsbooks.

Free NFL Pick: UNDER 46.5 (-110) 
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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New England Patriots vs. Arizona Cardinals
University of Phoenix Stadium, 8:30 PM ET
The Patriots and Cardinals collide in a highly anticipated Sunday Night Football showdown. The market tips this game wholeheartedly with the Cardinals despite the struggles on the offensive side of the ball during the preseason. Struggles that conjured images of Carson Palmer’s interception prone account during the NFC Championship game last season. Bit of a worry, don’t you think? In any event, we’re looking at the totals for this game in this space, not the SU or ATS win. Both teams have plenty offensive weapons and defenses that aren’t too shabby, which makes this a tossup in terms of going OVER or UNDER the 47.5-point total currently trading. Imagine Belichick would rather anything but a shootout in this game so the onus will be on the defense to slow down Carson Palmer and the Cards rather than Jimmy Garoppolo putting up the points.

Free NFL Picks: UNDER 47.5 (-110)
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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Monday, September 12, 2016

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Washington Redskins
FedEx Field, 7:10 PM ET

The Pittsburgh Steelers figure to have one of the best offenses in the league, which is largely the reason behind the hefty 50.5-point total currently trading on this game. It’s Monday Night Football and Big Ben knows how to light it up when the nation is watching. On the flipside, Kirk Cousins, and the Redskins aren’t too shabby either. After all, they clinched the NFC East title last season largely behind a potent passing offense. On the defensive side of the ball, both teams can be shaky. All this combined has us tipping this game to go OVER.

Free NFL Picks: OVER 50 (-105) 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers
Levi Stadium, 10:20 PM ET

The Rams and Niners close out week 1 of the regular season at Levi Stadium, the second of the Monday Night double header. Blaine Gabbert is set to lead Chip Kelly’s side onto the field while it appears Case Keenum instead of Jared Goff will lead the Rams. Neither is an elite quarterback, so it might be prudent to keep expectations low. As well, the teams as a whole are far from developed and established sides – this includes both the offense and defense. There are simply too many uncertainties and, in turn, that has us considering the UNDER as the choice NFL pick.

Free NFL Picks: UNDER 44.5 -110 
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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