Free NFL Picks: Game-by-Game ATS Forecasts to Profit Off Week 10

Nikki Adams

Wednesday, November 11, 2015 1:59 PM GMT

We recap our Game-by-Game picks for Week 9 and sink our teeth into next week’s matchups. Find out where we’re placing our NFL picks against the spread as we breakdown all 14 games.

Week 9 NFL Betting Recap
Week 9 of the NFL betting season continues it’s rather high correlation between winning and covering with 12 of 13 teams cashing in both markets. Covers.com reckons it’s one of the highest correlations between the two markets over the course of a season in the last five years and, importantly, they go on to conclude that there’s no rhyme or reason for it. It’s random.

Favourites went 6-7 ATS according to Vegas Insider while home teams went 7-6 ATS. How we did with our ATS predictions is best described by the word modest: a 6-6-1 record. Nevertheless, we still managed to improve our overall record to 66-63-3 for the season (See Table 1).

Table 1. Breaking Down Weekly Game-by-Game NFL Picks Records

Here are our choice NFL picks for week 10’s games against the spread. These are locked in on current NFL spreads and odds noted in the NFL picks and don’t consider line movements that occur during the week.

 

Bills vs. Jets
The Bills are 4-4 SU and ATS this season with a 2.4-point winning margin. When they are winning games, they have done so by a considerable margin save for the 14-13 win over the Titans in week 5. When they are losing games, they are also doing so by a considerable margin, save for the 34-31 loss to the Jaguars in London in week 7 NFL betting. On the road, they are 2-1 SU and ATS with an 8.3-point winning margin, largely skewed by the 41-14 win over the Dolphins in week 3 NFL betting. The Jets, meanwhile, are 5-3 SU and 4-3-1 ATS on the season with a 4.8-point winning margin. At home, they are 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS with an 8.2-point winning margin. They are riding a two-game home winning streak, which includes wins over the Redskins and Jaguars and features a 9.5-point winning margin. Whether they are winning or losing, they are doing so mainly by a hefty chunk of points, prompting a sense of unpredictability about them. Then there’s the last couple of weeks that haven’t been good for the Jets – a loss in Oakland and a narrow win over the Jaguars, all while failing to cover as the significant 7.5-point home chalk in the latter. Granted there have been key injuries to contend with and do them no favour. So what does this mean for our NFL picks, not to mention for what is sure to be a highly charged divisional rivalry underscored by the return of Rex Ryan to his old stomping ground?  Will Ryan get his vindication or will the Jets have the measure of their old coach and his Bills. It’s a complete and utter tossup. We’re going with the hosts Jets ruin Rex Ryan’s homecoming.

Free NFL Picks: Jets -2.5 (-105) at BetCRIS

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Panthers vs. Titans
The Panthers are 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS on the season with a 7.9-point winning margin. On the road, they are 3-0 SU and ATS with a 9.7-point winning margin, a run of form that includes a 27-23 win over the Seattle Seahawks. Given how well the Panthers are playing right now and how they underscored their perfect 8-0 SU record with a win over the highly fancied Green Bay Packers in Super Bowl 50 markets, it’s shocking the lack of respect they are receiving across NFL odds boards and in NFL betting circles. The NFL spread opened around 6-points but quickly shrunk to 4.5-points at most sports betting shops. Granted the Titans orchestrated the upset over the Saints in week 9 NFL betting, but the Saints are a bit bipolar this season so let’s not get carried away. Against newbie quarterbacks – rookie Jameis Winston and second-year quarterback Blake Bortles – Cam Newton has shown his class and led the Panthers to double-digit wins. Conversely, Marcus Mariota has struggled against good defenses this season –Bills and Dolphins. So take advantage of this rather low NFL betting spread and take the Panthers minus the points.

Free NFL Picks: Panthers -4.5 (-110) at Westgate

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Bears vs. Rams
Jay Cutler and the Bears rallied to defeat the Chargers 22-19 in MNF, heaping more misery on Philip Rivers and the Chargers than most NFL betting experts expected them to enjoy by this time of the season. This weekend they face a much stiffer challenge against the Rams on the road. The Rams are 4-4 SU and ATS with a 0-9-point winning margin. At home, however, the Rams are 3-1 SU and ATS with a 9-point winning margin. Consider this is the second straight road game for the Bears, not to mention a short week no less, it’s hard to see how the Bears pull off a second straight upset. It also has the potential of being a let-down game after the big primetime win on Monday. Also consider the Rams just acquired Wes Walker, who’s widely accepted as a future Hall of Famer and brings additional options to Nick Foles on offense. The last two games at home the Rams have faced teams with losing records only to hold them to just six points all while hanging double-digit losses on them.

Free NFL Picks: Rams -7 (-110) at Bet365

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Browns vs. Steelers
The quarterback situation in this matchup is just appalling. Browns are yet to determine whether Josh McCown or Johnny Manziel starts while the Steelers will have to go yet again without Big Ben and turn to Landry Jones. Yikes. He didn’t do so well in his first start so it remains to be seen how he does in this game against a side that’s pretty much out for the season with a 2-7 SU record. With the playing field somewhat levelled out at the quarterback position, this is a right tossup on our NFL picks.

Free NFL Picks: Browns + 4.5 (-110) at 5Dimes

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Cowboys vs. Buccaneers
The Cowboys continue to freefall, losing their sixth straight game in week 9 NFL betting. They are now sporting a 2-6 SU and ATS record on the season with a 5.5-point losing margin and, all of a sudden, a game that should have been a cakewalk if they had their beloved starter all season long becomes the most important game of their season. Faced with one last game without Tony Romo, this is a must-win game for Matt Cassel and the Cowboys if they hope to keep pace in the NFC East, which is still wide open. Can Cassel deliver on the expectations and under the weight of the occasion? Can’t say we’d put down good money on that at all even if there’s been perceptible improvement in his game over the course of his starts. Oddsmakers opened with Cowboys as the 1-point road chalk, but that fence was quickly jumped. They are now dressed up as the 1.5-point road underdogs at most shopping windows.

Free NFL Picks: Buccaneers -1 (-110) at BetOnline

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Lions vs. Packers
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are coming off back-to-back defeats to the Broncos and Panthers. While the former saw Aaron Rodgers stifled entirely, the latter saw the MVP quarterback figure things out if not almost tie the game but for missing a wide open Randall Cobb. He’s not best pleased with himself right now. Fortunately, he’s back at Lambeau in week 10 NFL betting to take on a hapless Lions side that is 1-7 SU ad ATS on the season with a 12-point losing margin on average. Look for Rodgers to exorcise whatever demons ailed him over the last couple of weeks and take apart one of the league’s worst defenses in a big home win.

Free NFL Picks: Packers -11 (-110) at Bet365

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Jaguars vs. Ravens
By and large, this game is touted as a winnable game for the Ravens by NFL betting experts and oddsmakers alike. But is that the correct assessment? Let’s face it, the Ravens are nothing to write home about, and while the Jaguars aren’t great, they aren’t that bad either. Don’t be lulled into complacency. This game has the potential to be a close one, if not an out-and-out upset. The Ravens are a disappointing 2-6 SU and 1-6-1 ATS with a 3-point losing margin on the season with many citing a tough NFL schedule, comprised of five out of eight road games, the cause of their fall from grace in 2015. As a result, the bye week couldn’t have come sooner for Joe Flacco and Company despite going into it on the heels of a win in San Diego. They are set to start an eight-game stretch towards the close of the season that features five out of eight games at home, beginning with the Jaguars in week 10. Home advantage and a Jaguars side that is just 3-5 SU on the season lends the Ravens favourable NFL odds for this game. However, it’s worth pointing out that the Ravens are still pretty banged up and their last outing came at a cost when they lost Steve Smith for the season (Achilles tendon). What’s more, the Bengals have the AFC North by the scruff of its neck and the Steelers are hobbling behind them. It would be nothing short of a minor miracle if the Ravens make a push down the stretch. By contrast, the AFC South is wide open and the 2-6 SU Jaguars have a shot to close the gap on the 3-5 SU Texans and 4-5 SU Colts.  Whichever way you are slicing this game on your SU NFL picks, we think the Jaguars will keep it close and cover.

Free NFL Picks: Jaguars +6 (-110) at Heritage

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Dolphins vs. Eagles
Dan Campbell and the Dolphins were left smarting by the Bills in Sunday’s 33-17 loss in Buffalo. For a third straight week, the Dolphins are on the road and matched as the underdogs on the NFL odds board. Given the recent run of form, that’s not surprising at all. What began as a promising coaching tenure with two straight wins over the Titans and Texans, and that had just about everybody high on the Dolphins, has suddenly gone tits up. First the Patriots happily sent the Dolphins crashing back down to earth with a big 35-7 thudding loss at Gillette Stadium. Then the Bills bossed them around in Buffalo to sweep the series. More and more, the first two wins look like emotional wins that typically occur when a coaching shakedown such as theirs was occurs. The Eagles, meanwhile, seem to have sorted things out in recent weeks. They are 3-1 SU in their last four games, improving to 4-4 SU overall and second place in the NFC East. At home they are 2-1 SU and ATS with a 10.7-point winning margin. This upsurge in form hasn’t gone unnoticed and oddsmakers send them into this game as the hefty faves trading anywhere from 6-to 7-points. It’s a lot of points to be giving Sam Bradford and the Eagles on one hand, but if he’s starting to get the hang of it then Chip Kelly’s offense and overall coaching experience is more than a match for 4-game coach Dan Campbell.

Free NFL Picks: Eagles -6 (-110) at Westgate

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Saints vs. Redskins
Just when things start to look up for the Saints, they drop a stinker. It’s as if they take secret pleasure in defying NFL odds and expectations and frustrating their fans too. Admittedly, it’s just that their defense can’t be trusted. A loss to the Titans at the Superdome? Seriously? They’d already lost to No.1 draft pick Jameis Winston and the Bucs in week 2, so why not give No.2 draft pick Marcus Mariota and the Titans a similar parting gift. Was that the thinking….hmmm… Somehow, the bipolar Saints are the favourites in this game and were not so sure they should be even if they are just short faves. Undoubtedly, Drew Brees is a much better quarterback than Kirk Cousins is and the Saints offense is finally finding its rhythm and lighting up the scoreboard. But the guy can’t keep it up week in and week out when the defense does its absolute best to bugger it all up for him. The Redskins are 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS at home with a 2.8-point margin of victory, which includes a three-game winning streak at home. They could potentially deliver a surprise at home to the Saints, thereby defying the NFL odds.

Free NFL Picks: Redskins +1.5 (-110) Heritage

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Vikings vs. Raiders
Teddy Bridgewater was knocked out cold in the Vikings’ 21-18 win over the Rams and is yet to be confirmed as the starter when they make the trek to Oakland where they’re set to take on the Raiders and their exciting offense. Derrek Carr is impressing his peers and the Raiders are making quite the surprising push in the AFC West and Conference proper. If Bridgewater is out, this game should be a straightforward one for the Raiders. If he does play, it could be a bit of a tossup. That said, we do like the Raiders at home to come through for their fans.

Free NFL picks: Raiders -3 (-110) at BetOnline

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Chiefs vs. Broncos
Broncos will be looking to bounce back after a disappointing loss to the Colts in week 9 and dropping out of the ranks of the undefeated. They are 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS on the season with a 6.6-point winning margin. At home they are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS with a 9-point winning margin. Since 2014, they are 11-1 SU at home with an 11.2-point winning margin. The Chiefs are coming off a bye and will be rested. Still, they have to travel to Mile High, where they are set to take on a divisional opponent that has owned them since the Peyton Manning era began. Colour the world shocked if Alex Smith figures it out.

Free NFL Picks: Broncos -6 (-110) at Bet365

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Patriots vs. Giants
The New England Patriots’ deflate-gate revenge campaign is off to a brilliant start. Now, if Tom Brady can only use that fuel to exorcise the demons of this matchup. He’s 0-3 SU against Eli Manning, two of which were Super Bowl defeats. This is one of those games and matchups Tom Brady probably has on his To Do List, eagerly waiting to check off with his magic marker as successfully done-and-done. Giants are enjoying a better season than they did in 2014. They lead the NFC East with a 5-4 SU record, which includes a 3-1 SU record and a 4.2-point winning margin. Eli Manning has form against the Patriots, which will send him into this game with confidence. But we think Tom Brady finally gets into the win column at the expense of the Giants; they are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS on the road with a 13-point winning margin.

Free NFL Picks: Patriots -7 (-110) BetOnline

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Cardinals vs. Seahawks
The Seahawks are only 2.5-to-3-point home favourites in this game, thanks to a rather disappointing 4-4 SU start to the season, which includes a 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS mark at home with an 8.3-point winning margin. Indeed, the only side the Seahawks well and truly beat at home were the Bears without Jay Cutler. The Lions very nearly pulled off the win but for a controversial call. While the Panthers pulled off the 27-23 upset in their last home game. The Cardinals are 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS on the season with a 13.8-point winning margin. If they want to be taken as legitimate contenders this season, a statement-making account in Seattle would go a long way towards such an ambition.

Free NFL Picks: Cardinals +3 (+100) Westgate

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Texans vs. Bengals
The Cincinnati Bengals are coming off a convincing win over the Cleveland Browns in Thursday Night Football. proving they can win in primetime. Question is: can they do it again? We shall see. Beating the Cleveland Browns led by Johnny Manziel is hardly anything to get charged about is it. They get ten days rest before they go into their second straight primetime game against the Texans, all while enjoying home advantage once again. Predictably, the Bengals are the solid favourites to both win straight up and cover. But ten points (or more depending on your sportsbook of choice) might be too many points to lay with the Bengals on your NFL picks. Granted the Texans are disappointing thus far with only a 3-5 SU record and a defense that ranks well below preseason expectations. They are coming off a bye week though and they have an opportunity to get back into the playoff picture on account of a rather deflating AFC South division. They are but a game behind the Colts in the standings.

Free NFL Picks: Texans +12 (-120) at 5Dimes

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