Free NFL Picks - False Favorites And Top Dogs In Week 4

Cleveland Browns team in field

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, September 27, 2016 6:57 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 27, 2016 6:57 PM UTC

With an outstanding 8-1 record and a sharp pick on The Browns last week, SBR's expert is ready to share with the betting public his week 4 Top Underdogs & False Favorites.

I have been quite fortunate myself, posting an 8-1 record to date for this specific article. For this week, your football expert has gone over all the NFL betting odds at A+ rated Bookmaker and has three more releases hoping to uncover more winners in NFL Week 4.


Top Dog - Browns The Play With Heavy Points
Cleveland had Miami beaten except for missing field goal to win the game in regulation. Though the Browns are winless, they have outgained last two opponents and coach Hue Jackson has his players playing hard and with enthusiasm. Washington came through with a clutch effort in victory over the rival Giants, but Washington handing out nine points, really! The last time the Redskins were anywhere close to this big a favorite was second game of 2009 season and they beat St. Louis 9-7, giving 9.5 points, on last play of the game. Finally, favorite of 3.5 to 10 points like the Skins off win by three points or less over a division rival, facing team with a losing record, are 4-24 ATS.

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False Favorite - Arizona Not Getting it Done
Living here in Arizona, I hear a lot of Cardinals talk and despite what I saw in the preseason, I more wondered about Bruce Arian's squad than formulated a negative opinion. Yet after two poor showings against New England and Buffalo, something is amiss with Arizona. Giving out nine points to Los Angeles is hefty for making NFL betting picks. Carson Palmer looks every bit of 36 years old and because he lacks mobility, opposing teams are blitzing more frequently and the deep passing game is taking too long to develop. While no fan of Case Keenum, the Rams offense started to come around last week and the Cardinals are permitting 4.7 yards per carry on the ground. With the Cards 1-12 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points, they are a false favorite.

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False Total - Titans vs. Texans Total Heading Wrong Direction
With Tennessee's and Houston's offenses averaging 14 points a game, it is not going out on a limb to believe this could be a lower scoring game, and the total is down a digit from 41 to 40 at various sportsbooks. But I put on my miner's helmet on and did some investigating and found nine of the 14 games played in Houston have been OVER's and Tennessee is 27-13 OVER after scoring seven points or less in the first half of consecutive contests. But here is the clincher, road teams like the Titans scoring 17 or fewer points a game, after scoring 17 points or less in consecutive outings are 23-4 OVER the last five years.

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