Free NFL Picks - False Favorites And Top Dogs For Week 7

Oakland Raiders player in action

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, October 18, 2016 8:02 PM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 18, 2016 8:02 PM UTC

The next round of opportunity for betting football is getting closer. We again go over the numbers to find the best value on underdogs or fake favorites, who are ripe to be point spread losers to be faded on your NFL picks.


Last week was a mixed bag of the good, the bad and kissing your own sister with a 1-1-1 spread mark, leaving me at still a very stellar 14-3-1 for this article on NFL picks.

When checking out the NFL odds at A-rated Intertops, where they have great first-time bonus signups, I have to admit, quickly discovered three games that make a lot of sense to this football handicapper.


Top Dog - Washington Continues to Shine

After laboring to 0-2 start, Washington has strung together four SU and ATS winners in a row. The Redskins turnaround is linked to offensive players doing their respective jobs at every position, making the pass and the run games more efficient. On defense, this one is simple, Washington started tackling and big plays allowed have been steadily dropping. Detroit is home for a third straight game and while I could not find the exact record, teams that are .500 or worse typically falter in Game 3 and have an even worse record against the spread. With Washington 7-0 ATS versus teams allowing 350 or more yards per game since last season, like the Skins to win Outright as a Top Dog!

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Top Dog - Oakland in Super Situation

Last week, nearly every sharp and wise guy was on Kansas City over Oakland and that proved prophetic as the Raiders faltered again at home. However, it is becoming very well known Oakland is money on the road under coach Jack Del Rio with a 9-2 ATS record and dress them up as a pooch catching points, they are even sharper 7-1 against the sportsbooks. Jacksonville hung in and came from behind to upset Chicago and are home favorites for only the seventh time since 2013 (3-3 ATS). I'll side with the Raiders, with visiting team a perfect 6-0 ATS in their games this season.

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False Favorite - Public Sending Total Wrong Way

With how the New Orleans offense and defense is playing, little wonder the total jumped from 49 to 50.5 at Kansas City. The Saints are averaging 31 PPG and permitting 33.6 PPG. As anyone who has followed the Saints offense for years, especially since 2012 and even before as Super Bowl winner and contender, Drew Brees and company are never as potent outdoors. This season New Orleans scored 13 points at the New York Giants and were sitting at 21 late in fourth quarter at San Diego before two gift turnovers helped them reach 35. Expect Kansas City to control tempo, run the ball and throw short passes to keep Brees off the field. For my money this is false total and will be on the UNDER.

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Must Read: 72% Of Early Money On Patriots When Visiting Steel Town
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