Free NFL Picks: Falcons vs. Giants Odds & Predictions

Kevin Stott

Wednesday, October 1, 2014 7:31 PM GMT

Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2014 7:31 PM GMT

The Atlanta Falcons are in East Rutherford, New Jersey to face the New York Giants in a big NFC game for two teams looking for a needed win. Is taking the Falcons and the points the right betting angle?

Odds Overview
Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants (-4½, 50, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook), Sunday, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT: Definitely not the most entertaining game on the NFL Week 5 schedule, this Atlanta Falcons (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) and New York Giants (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) game also proves to be an extremely tough handicap with both teams weekly enigmas so far a quarter of the way through the NFL regular season. Atlanta‘s extremely poor 5-13 record SU on the Road over its last 18 reveals that even considering taking the Falcons on the Moneyline (+180; Giants -220, BetVictor) against a very mediocre G-Men team is not an easy thing on which to pull the trigger. And who would even think of backing the Giants with their NFL picks at that price? Probably not too many.

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Atlanta Falcons
Both teams here have a number of injuries, with the big news coming out on Tuesday that Falcons starting C Joe Hawley (knee) and starting RT Lamar Holmes (foot) are now both out for the remainder of the season with their injuries while S William Moore (shoulder) was placed on the short-term IR list. With problems on the OL—including LG Justin Blalock (knee)—Atlanta signed T Cameron Bradfield who may replace Holmes at RT while Peter Konz is expected to spell Hawley with Gabe Carimi replacing Holmes at RT. If Carimi remains at G, Ryan Schrader could be Homes’ replacement at RT, so, needless to say, the Falcons have some serious issues on the OL and the Giants could pressure Falcons QB Matt Ryan all day if these new linemen don’t get it together quickly. Kemal Ishmael will replace Moore at S while WR Harry Douglas (foot) is listed as Day-To-Day.

Falcons QB Ryan (27-25 ATS Road) has led Atlanta to the second-highest Passing Yards total in the NFL (322.5 ypg) so far and with talented WRs Julio Jones (29 receptions, 447 yards, 3 TDs, 15.4 ypc), Roddy White (14 receptions, 187 yards, 2 TDs), Devin Hester (12 receptions, 198 yards, TD, 16.3 ypc) and RB Steven Jackson (50 rushes, 2-1 yards, TD), the Falcons (5/2 to win NFC West, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) have a nice collection of offensive players who can go for big yards when they touch the football but the loss of OL and its effect could be an issue on Sunday.

 

New York Giants
The Giants (22nd in Opponent’s passing Yards at 254.5 ypg, 10/1 to Win NFC East) defense could give up a number of big plays to the visiting Falcons, who could very easily win this game despite their recent road woes (1-9 L10). But QB Eli Manning and the Giants haven’t played consistently, yet and it’s that choppiness on both teams part here that makes the Over 50—rightfully the highest posted Total for NFL Week 5—so darn appealing in this one although in the last 10 meetings in this series, the 'Under' has been extremely dominant (2-8) with the two teams putting up some very anemic averages (ATL 18.9 ppg, NYG 17.6 ppg). Still, that was then and this is now.

For New York—which already has WRs Mario Manningham and Jerrel Jernigan on the Injured Reserve list and Odell Beckham (hamstring) out indefinitely—T James Brewer (back), LBs Devon Kenarch (hamstring) and Jon Beason (toe) and T Charles Brown (toe) are all listed as Day-To-Day, but the impact New York’s injuries should have on this game as opposed to the Falcons, with their OL woes, should be minimal.

Last week in Week 4 play, the Giants (100/1 to win Super Bowl XLIX, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) pounded the Redskins on the road, 45-14 on Thursday Night Football as 3-point underdogs with the Total sailing Over—as it did in 10 of the week’s 13 games—the 45½ point total with QB Eli Manning and the visitors almost going Over the number themselves, while the Falcons (40/1 to win Super Bowl) were pounded by the Vikings in Minnesota, 41-28 as 3-point underdogs as that Total also went way Over (by 22 points). And whether it’s a new phase in this league or not, Under bettors have had to reconsider their posture over these last couple of seasons. Many games aren’t just trickling Over the Total, they’re treating it like a number to be thrashed, although cumulatively, the Over/Under  results after 60 games was about what one would statistically expect: 33 Overs, 28 Unders (53.33% Overs).

 

Shootout Possible, Over the Play; Anytime TD Scorer Ideas
With both teams coming in at 2-2 SU and in need of a win to return some positivity to their respective locker rooms, expect an all-out shootout here at MetLife Stadium with around 30 points on the scoreboard at halftime. So, look for a First Half Total when those NFL odds are posted as neither team has much to lose here in this situation—but use your own judgement as this is the NFL. This game should be pretty ugly on many fronts and a number of turnovers should be a part of the final makeup when all is said and done.

Seeing as how such a high-scoring game is expected by oddsmakers and being predicted here, looking at some Anytime TD Scorer prop bets—Falcons WRs Julio Jones and Roddy White fit the bill perfectly—would be advised as there could very well be between 5-9 TDs in this contest. As far as choosing a side, the Falcons +4½ (Pinnacle) would be definitely be the lean here, simply because of the number (+4½) and a powerful trend: Atlanta 6-1 ATS L7 on the Road at the Giants. The Falcons are also 6-4 ATS L10 against NFC New York but just 4-9 ATS their L13 on the Road, so, this is one where anything can and will happen, but the idea that a bunch of points will be scored here is the predominant feel, despite some recent past trends in this series that say otherwise.

NFL PICK: Over 50 (Pinnacle)

NFL PROPS PICK: Julio Jones Anytime TD Scorer (Falcons)

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