Free NFL Picks: Early Look at the Week 2 Odds on Offer In Vegas

Kevin Stott

Sunday, September 13, 2015 10:18 PM UTC

Sunday, Sep. 13, 2015 10:18 PM UTC

Let’s take a serious look at the Advanced Line for Week 2, fresh from the the world’s largest sportsbook, the recently $12 million remodeled Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook here in Sin City. Here are the Advanced NFL Week 2 odds from the sports book along with the 16 games starting times, main TV networks covering them along with some thoughts, humor, series trends and tout-less picks.

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Thursday, September 17, 2015

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs PK (CBS/NFL Network, 8:25 p.m. ET/5:25 p.m. PT): The Denver Broncos (12-5 SU, 8-9 ATS in 2014; vs. Ravens Sunday) head to Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City to face the Chiefs (9-7 SU, 10-6 ATS; at Texans Sunday) in this AFC West battle and Regular Season opener which may mean more to the host Chiefs after a possible Week 1 loss in Houston. Last season, Kansas City lost in this game, 29-16, as 1-point Underdogs in Week 12, while in Week 3 in Denver, the Broncos also won, 24-17, but failed to cover as 14-point chalks in Week 2. Trend-wise, the Broncos are 5-1 ATS the L6 here at Arrowhead Stadium and Denver is 4-1 ATS in the L5 meetings overall. In a Pick ‘Em game, the Broncos (6-0 vs. AFC West in 2014, 5-1 ATS) and Peyton Manning would have to be the pick. Pick: Broncos Pick ‘Em

Sunday, September 20, 2015

Houston Texans at Carolina Panthers -2 (CBS, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT): The Houston Texans (9-7 SU, 9-6-1 ATS, vs. Chiefs Sunday) head east to Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina next Sunday to face the Carolina Panthers (8-9-1 SU, 9-9 ATS; at Jacksonville Sunday) and Cam Newton in this inter-conference showdown and what could be a huge game for these teams in terms of maybe squeezing into the NFL Playoffs come January.

When these two teams last met back in 2011 in Houston, the Panthers won 28-13 as 5-point Underdogs, while the last time these two met in the Tar Heel State, the Texans won 34-21 as 6½-point Underdogs so this seems like one of those once-in-awhile series where anything can happen and in which surprise has been the only consistent thing over the L2 meetings.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints -7 (FOX, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT): The historic Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans is the site of is NFC South tilt in which the host Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-14 SU, 7-9 ATS, vs. Titans Sunday) can maybe thrust themselves into the talk of actually winning the division with an upset over the host New Orleans Saints (7-9 SU, 6-10 ATS, at Cardinals Sunday) and Drew Brees. When these two played in Week 5 in this game in the Big Easy last season, the Saints won 37-31 but failed to cover as 11-point Favorites, while New Orleans also won in Week, 23-20, and also failed to cover in that spot as 6-point Favorites. The Buccaneers are 3-1 ATS in their L4 in New Orleans and Tampa Bay is 3-1 ATS in the L4 overall against the Saints. Like the lumber here. Pick: Buccaneers +7

San Francisco 49ers at Pittsburgh Steelers -7 (FOX, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT): Big Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers (11-6 SU, 9-8 ATS, at Patriots Thursday) play host to Colin Kaepernick and the San Francisco 49ers (8-8 SU, 6-9-1 ATS, vs. Vikings Monday) at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh for this inter-conference meeting between two NFL organizations who have been pretty darn good when it comes to getting to and winning Super Bowls. This same Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook releases its’ annual NFL Games of the Year each Summer, and the Steelers were installed as 5-point chalks back then so you can see what the loss of all of those players and HC Jim Harbaugh was perceived by bettors. The last time these two played was in 2011 where the 49ers won 20-3 in San Francisco as 3-point Favorites while the last time these two met in the Steel City, the Steelers hammered the 49ers, 37-16 and covered as 10-point Favorites way back in 2007, the year Apple invented the iPhone. The 49ers are 5-2 ATS the L7 against Pittsburgh.

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings -2½ (FOX, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT): The Minnesota Vikings (7-9 SU, 10-6 ATS, at 49ers Monday) open the doors of TCF Bank Stadium in the funky and lavender-shaded city of Minneapolis to the Detroit Lions (11-6 SU, 8-9 ATS) next Sunday afternoon in a fun and early Week 2 NFC North showdown. Much has been made of the Preseason Minnesota has had, and the Vikings—who have star RB Adrian Peterson coming back after a yearlong Suspension—were shocked and upset here at Home by Matthew Stafford and the Lions last season, 17-3 as 1-point Underdogs. Detroit also won the home-leg in Motown, 16-14, although the Lions failed to cover the 8-point spread. The Vikings are 6-2 ATS the L8 overall vs. Detroit and Minnesota is 4-1 the L5 here at Ford Fieldt. Pick: Vikings -2½

New England Patriots -2½ at Buffalo Bills (CBS, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT): The New England Patriots (15-4 SU, 11-8 ATS, vs. Steelers Thursday) and QB Tom Brady (63-44-1 ATS Away) head to Ralph Wilson Stadium in Orchard Park next Sunday afternoon to face the host Buffalo Bills (9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS, vs. Colts Sunday) in this AFC East game which may end up having huge implications come January. Or maybe it will just be another game. Last season, the eventual Super Bowl champion Patriots rocked the Bills 37-22 in this game as 1-point Underdogs while Buffalo defeated the Patriots in New England, 17-9, as 5-point Underdogs in Week 17 in a game in which the hosts cared little about winning and more about not getting hurt with the top seed in the AFC Playoffs already secured. The Patriots are 9-2 ATS over the L11 here at Ralph Wilson Stadium against the Bills but with first-year HC Rex Ryan and some new talent, this Buffalo Roster should be more well-equipped to try to handle this perennial division-winner, although a Tom Brady-Tyrod Taylor QB matchup sounds like an automatic lean to the elite, dynasty-rolling Patriots at this price with those Trends, especially in a game in which 94.7%* of the public thought the New England superstar QB wouldn’t even be playing. You know nothing. We know nothing. They know nothing. Now move forward knowing that. Pick: Patriots -2½

Arizona Cardinals -3 Even at Chicago Bears (FOX, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT): The Arizona Cardinals (8-8 SU, 6-9-1 ATS, vs. Vikings Monday) head to the Windy City next Sunday not to indulge on Chicago’s magnificent Deep Dish Pizza, but to engage in an American Football game against their NFL counterparts, the Bears (5-11 SU, 7-9 ATS, vs. Packers Sunday). And what’s ironic here is that the Cardinals once called Chicago home (1920-1959) back when the Great Depression actually occurred. The last time these two played here was in the 20o9 season and the NFL’s Redbirds opened a can of whoop-ass up on Da Bears, almost doubling up on them (41-21) as 2-point Underdogs, while the last time they met on the gridiron three seasons ago in 2012 at Arizona, Chicago won and easily covered as 7-point favorites (28-13). So, there is no rhyme, nor no reason here between a team who once played in Chicago and the team who were called the Decatur Staleys before smelling that pizza in central Illinois and then wisely deciding to quickly move up north to Chicago before coming the Chicago Staleys in 1921 and then realizing how stupid that sounded before becoming the Chicago Bears in 1922, and then competing with the Cardinals for all of the city’s pizza until the Cardinals couldn’t take it anymore and decided to move south to St. Louis when they realized Anheuser-Busch had a pretty good brewery there. Get it? Got it? Good. This could be a real tough spot for the Cardinals.

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns -4 (CBS, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT): The Cleveland Browns (7-9 SU, 9-6-1 ATS, at Jets Sunday) welcome the Tennessee Titans (2-14 SU, 3-12-1 ATS; at Buccaneers Sunday) to FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland for this AFC inter-divisional game from the Buckeye State between two NFL teams who will be hard-pressed to make the Postseason with stronger teams ahead of both of them in their respective divisions. The last time these two teams played was last season in Nashville where HC Mike Pettine (9-6-1 ATS) and the Browns eked out a 1-point victory (29-28) as 1-point Underdogs to Push the number in Week 5 in the Volunteer State. Trend-wise, the Titans are 4-1 ATS L5 vs. the Browns in Cleveland and with Rookie Marcus Mariota and 4 points, the visitors are the lean here although this will be a big game for the Browns—especially if they start 0-1 with at loss at the Jets and with the Raiders (Home), Chargers (Away), Ravens (Away) and Broncos (Home) coming up on the schedule in Weeks 3-6 . A Cleveland win here over Tennessee may end up preventing an 0-6 Browns start (Mike Pettine to be First NFL Coach Fired +585, 5Dimes).

San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals -3½ (CBS, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT): Andy Dalton and the Cincinnati Bengals (10-6-1 SU, 8-8-1 ATS, at Raiders) play host to Philip Rivers and the San Diego Chargers (9-7 SU, 7-9 ATS; vs. Lions Sunday) in this AFC inter-divisional affair from the city that gave the world Skyline Chili and once elected Jerry Springer mayor. Plop, plop, fizz, fizz. The last time these two met for real and banged helmets here in Cincinnati was in Week 17 of the 2013 Regular Season where the Bolts routed Cincinnati, 27-10, as 6-point Underdogs and these two teams have played a lot (5 times in 10 years) for not being in the same division. San Diego is 4-1 ATS the L5 overall against the Bengals and would be the lean as long as that Hook (½ point) hangs there. The Underdog if anything for now.

St. Louis Rams -2½ at Washington Redskins (FOX, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT): If there were a Point Spread that were an indictment... Apparently the oddsmakers up the road here at the SuperBook think little of Washington QB Kirk Cousins and their questionable Defense or maybe they just think more of the Rams. Likely, a combination of both. We’ll find the Truth. Playing host to the St. Louis Rams (6-10 SU, 7-9 ATS; vs. Seahawks Sunday) here at FedExField in Landover, Maryland, the Washington Redskins (4-12 SU, 5-11 ATS, at Dolphins Sunday) and HC Jay Gruden will be looking for a win against a team which it will think it can beat. The last meeting between these two teams was last year and was here in Landover where the Rams shut out the Redskins, 19-0 as 3-point favorites so that’s probably where oddsmakers get much of the core of this Point Spread. If you can’t score at Home against a less-than-average team, well then... The Rams are also 6-1 ATS in their L7 vs. Washington and 4-1 ATS in their L5 trips here. If it only weren’t QB Nick Foles in his first Road start as a Ram... Ram on? No, would prefer to see some things from each in Week 1 and then make a call. Or pass on it.

Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants -2½ (FOX, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT): This NFC inter-divisional game from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey sees Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and the the Atlanta Falcons (6-10 SU, 7-9 ATS, vs. Eagles Sunday) facing the New York Giants (6-10 SU, 7-9 ATS; at Cowboys Sunday night). The last time these two played was last season (2014) where the G-Men won and covered as 4-point Favorites here at Home (30-20). But the Falcons are an impressive 6-2 ATS (75%) in their L8 here at MetLife Stadium against New York and both Ryan and the Giants Eli Manning are unpredictable. Maybe the Over (Total Points), depending on the number or maybe the Dirty Birds on a 7-point Teaser for fun (Falcons +9½), but this is one of those football games where anything could happen and neither the Wiseguys or General Public would be surprised.

Baltimore Ravens -4 at Oakland Raiders (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET/1:05 p.m. PT): The Baltimore Ravens (11-7 SU, 10-8 ATS, at Broncos) head to Colisuem in Oakalnd, California next Sunday afternoon in Week 2 action to play the host Oakland Raiders (3-13 SU, 8-8 ATS, vs. Bengals Sunday) in an AFC inter-conference affair in which the favored Ravens (EDT) will be playing with Body Clock 3 hours behind the host Raiders (PDT), meaning the late (mental) start, the Road site and the +4 points are all checks in Raiders boxes. And the addition of killer WRs Michael Crabtree (Free Agent, 49ers) and Rookie Amari Cooper (Alabama, Round 1 Draft Pick) will be good for QB David Carr and should definitely help open up the Oakland Rushing attack by way of opposing Defenses having to worry about the Pass so much now from the Black and Silver. You don’t get guys like Crabtree and Cooper to not throw to them. The last time these two teams played here was in 2009 in Week 17 when Baltimore won 21-13 but failed to get the money Against The Spread (ATS) as 10½-point chalks. and the last actual meeting between the two was in Crab City in 2012 (A.D.) where Baltimore pasted the Raiders, 55-20 as 7½-point Favorites and covering the Point Spread by 27½ points. With the Ravens 9-2 ATS the L11 overall against Oakland, you can see why this number is where it’s at but the Raiders gained much while the Ravens lost much in the Offseason and coming off a game at Denver in Week 1 and with the time thing, again probably best to see how both teams play in Week 1.

Miami Dolphins -6 Jacksonville Jaguars (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET/1:05 p.m. PT): This inter-divisional Battle of the Sunshine State will see Ryan Tannehill and the Miami Dolphins (8-8 SU, 7-9 ATS; at Redskins Sunday) heading to EverBank Field in Jacksonville to face Blake Bortles and the Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13 SU, 6-10 ATS; vs. Panthers Sunday) in this soirée next Sunday. The last time these two met was last season where the Fish beat the Jaguars, 27-13, covering the 7-point spread. Trends here: The Dolphins are a perfect 3-0 ATS overall and 3-0 ATS on the Road here at EverBank Field. The oddsmakers have set a very good number in this one, making it hard for first-flinch bettors to jump all over Miami. As they almost always do.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles -4 (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET/1:25 p.m. PT): This NFC East showdown might be the marquee game of Week 2 if not for the one below. Here, the host Philadelphia Eagles (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS; at Cardinals Sunday) and new QB Sam Bradford welcome the Dallas Cowboys (5-9 SU, 6-8 ATS, at Rams Redskins Sunday) and QB Tony Romo to the unfriendly confines of Lincoln Financial Field where they once had a Courtroom built into the stadium and would hold “Eagles Court” for unruly fans who no doubt may have had a beer or 87 in their systems. The City of Brotherly Love? Philadelphia has booed Santa Claus and didn’t they disable that poor Robot earlier this Summer? No wonder the the Liberty Bell got cracked once in got there brother. Anyway, last season when these two met here, Dallas won 38-27 as 3-point Underdogs in Week 15. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook 2015 NFL Games of the Year opened the Eagles as 2½-point Home Favorites in this one, so, you can see perceptions of Philadelphia improving and Dallas declining some prevail for now. The Cowboys are 3-0 ATS in their L4 here in Philadelphia and Dallas is 3-1 ATS in the L4 meetings overall with the Eagles. Still, different teams, Then and Now. We recommended Philadelphia at (minus) -2½, are recommending -4 here on the Advanced Line, but anything -5 and up seems like a value-weak number although you know new RB DeMarco Murray will want to run wild against the silly team which let him go over the Offseason in a theoretical “Do we keep Dez or do we keep DeMarco?” scenario in Jerry World. A huge loss for America’s Team which may have Tony Dorsett on the telephone. Tony is 61. Pick: Eagles -4

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers -3 Even (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET/5:30 p.m. PT): Russell Wilson and the The NFC champion Seattle Seahawks (14-5 SU, 10-8-1 ATS; at Rams Sunday) head to Lambeau Field in Green Bay next Sunday night to dance with the Green Bay Packers (10-4 SU, 7-6-1 ATS, at Bears Sunday) and QB Aaron Rodgers (34-18-3 ATS Home) in a rematch of last season’s dramatic NFC Championship Game and biggest game on the Week 2 schedule. The Packers finished 6-2-1 ATS at Home last season—all 9 games as a Favorite—and Green Bay pummeled Seattle in the last meeting here in 2009, 48-10, easily covering the Point Spread as 13.5-point Favorites. The Packers are 3-1-1 ATS in their L5 against the Seahawks here in Brown County at Lambeau Field and the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook 2015 NFL Games of the Year—released in the Summer—opened the Packers up at -3 Even. So, you know ain’t nothing changed but my limp, and this sort of seems like a good spot for the Cheeseheads, with revenge and the site on their side although every game without Jordy Nelson is a little harder because of his absence. Week 1 games must be watched and thought about before really handicapping this NFC gem between two of the three best teams in the NFL.

Monday, September 21, 2015

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts -9½ (ESPN/WatchESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET/5:30 p.m. PT): Andrew Luck (17-6-2 ATS Home, 73.9% win percentage ATS) and the Indianapolis Colts (13-6 SU, 12-6-1 ATS; at Bills Sunday) host the upstart New York Jets (4-12 SU, 6-9-1; vs. Browns Sunday) in this AFC inter-divisional tilt from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis next Monday night. The last time these two teams met was in 2012 at MetLife Stadium where the Colts were dismantled, 35-9, as 3-point Underdogs, while the last time these two met here in Naptown was in the Playoffs in 2010 where the host Indianapolis lost the the J-E-T-S Jets! Jets! Jets, 17-16 as 2-point Favorites. But that was in the Past and we’re talking about the Future here, and even though New York improved immensely with its DBs and overall Roster, the QB mismatch (Luck vs. Ryan Fitzpatrick) is massive. However, it seems Gang Green will be really up for this one and that the 9½ points could go a very long way here. The Jets are 6-2 ATS in their L8 overall against the Colts. Pick: Jets +9½


NFL WEEK 2 ADVANCED LINE PICKS: Broncos Pick ‘Em over Chiefs, Buccaneers +7 over Saints, Vikings -2½ over Lions, Patriots -2½ over Bills, Eagles -4 over Cowboys, Jets +9½ over Colts (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

NFL FUTURES BOOK PROPS BET PICK: Mike Pettine (Cleveland Browns) to be First NFL Coach Fired +585 (5Dimes)


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