Free NFL Picks: Eagles Will Cover -5.5 Against Dolphins Easily

Joe Gavazzi

Saturday, November 14, 2015 1:59 AM UTC

Saturday, Nov. 14, 2015 1:59 AM UTC

In this article we look at the NFL odds for Sunday's game between the Miami Dolphins and the Philadelphia Eagles and provide our Crusher of the Week NFL pick.

Miami Dolphins vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) 1:00 EST
The Miami Dolphins travel north to face the Philadelphia Eagles for this 1:00 ET kick. It is the Dolphins’ third consecutive road game and third trip to the northeast after visiting Buffalo and New England in previous weeks. 

The honeymoon is over for HC Campbell and the Dolphins. Taking the reins at Miami after an 0-3 SU ATS slide against Jacksonville, Buffalo and the Jets, Miami responded by beating Tennessee and Houston by combined scores of 82-36. But, it was back to reality the last two weeks when playing consecutive road games against New England and Buffalo. Those resulted in being outscored 69-24. Last week, the Bills outrushed the Dolphins 266-106 in pounding them from pillar to post. Those two results put a big dent in the Dolphins’ long term record of 31-18 ATS as road dog. At 3-5 SU ATS, this is a critical game in the Dolphins’ season. But, the Eagles are in an equally precarious spot at 4-4 SU ATS.

Lone negative for the Eagles in this is their historical letdown following a franchise victory vs Dallas, for the Eagles are just 5-20 ATS when favored following a Dallas victory. Yet they have also sparkled in this role, which offsets the preceding statistic. Philly now stands 7-1 ATS as a non-division home favorite. More important than either of those two technical trends is the fundamental change authored by the Eagles. After four weeks of play, Philly was averaging just 2.8 YPR. Since HC Kelly has gone to a double tight-end set, the Eagles have averaged 172 RYPG in the previous four weeks. That has resulted in a 3-1 SU ATS record with their lone loss at undefeated Carolina. Now, they get to take on a Miami defensive front that has allowed opponents to run an average of 32 times per game for 142/4.5. That includes last week’s 266 running yard allowance. In addition, the Eagles have a better defense, allowing 21 PPG and only 5.5 DYP play, compared to Miami’s defense which allows 26 PPG and 6.0 YP play.

Winning NFL games is about playing better defense and having the better running game. You will win a lot of NFL bets if you have edges in those two categories, and are no worse than even in the net turnover margin. In today’s action, I invite you to join me by putting the NFL odds in your favor for my NFL pick on the Philadelphia Eagles as the Crusher of the Week in what could easily be a 3 touchdown victory.

NFL Picks: Eagles -5.5 at BetOnline

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