Free NFL Picks: Eagles to Come Back From the Dead vs. Jets

Charles Stark

Sunday, September 27, 2015 1:04 PM GMT

In week 3 betting the Eagles travel to NY to take on one of the surprises in the NFL so far the Jets. In what is playing out to be 2 teams with different expectations going in opposite directions.

NFL Odds
This game has moved back and forth as far as the favorite is concerned, but ultimately you can look at this game like a pick. There is some decent value on taking Philadelphia in this spot, and this is a game I believe they will win. Right now at 5 Dimes you can get the Eagles at +125. This is good value on a team that is due to play a good game, for my NFL pick of the day I will back Philadelphia getting that plus money.

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Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles have scored an average of 17 points per game, gaining 312.5 yards, and a third-down 21.74% conversion rate. For a team that was supposed to be a juggernaut they rank as one of the worst teams in offensive production. Turnovers have been part of the problem as they allowed three last week against the Cowboys, but that is only part of the issue. They have yet to form any sort of semblance of a rushing game ranking the worst in the league at only 35 yards per game. That is partly due to the fact that they simply don't run the ball as much as they probably should averaging just less than 27% of their plays on the ground. So why even like the Eagles in this spot? Averages. The weapons are there, and the offensive line has actually been pretty decent. I'm expecting Philadelphia finally break out and play good game against a Jets team that is played well but has also been pretty fortunate.

The Eagles have allowed an average of 23 points per game, 377 yards per game, and a third-down 30.77% conversion rate. Their strength has been against the run and I think this will be key against the New York Jets. They rank third in the league in opposing yards per rush I just 3.1 yards. The Jets have been really consistent running the ball this season ranking fourth in the league rushing the ball 51.64% of the time. This will be a good matchup but I'm going to give the nod to the Eagles in a game I think the Jets will have to rush the ball effectively to win.

 

New York Jets
The Jets have averaged 25.5 points per game, 338.5 yards per game, and a third-down 44% conversion rate. The offense has been the benefactors of an amazing turnover ratio by the defense. Ryan Fitzpatrick has done a decent job managing the offense and seems to be a capable enough quarterback. Although the Eagles right now don't have the best past defense, I don't think Fitzpatrick will pass for the kind of production the Jets will need to beat Philadelphia.

The Jets have allowed 8.5 points per game, 332 yards per game, and a third-down 36.67% conversion rate. In those two games they rank first in points allowed, but those were against Cleveland and a struggling Indianapolis team who is most likely overrated. This will be the first time they have faced an up-tempo offense like Philadelphia.  Of course the statistic that jumped out the most has been turnovers, in which they lead the league defensively getting five in both of their first two games. Looking back though not all of those turnovers were caused by the tremendous play of the New York defense. Don't expect those turnovers to keep falling the Jets way.

This really should be a great matchup with two teams with conflicting styles. I believe Philadelphia is going to come out and play their best game of the season and start to roll from here. Although this is not an easy spot having to win in New York, for one of your NFL football picks I recommend taking Philadelphia on the small plus money line to go ahead and win this game.

NFL Pick: Eagles +125 at 5Dimes