Free NFL Picks for Cowboys vs. Bears Thursday Night Football

Jeff Grant

Thursday, December 4, 2014 2:27 PM GMT

Dallas has the top statistical running back in the league, but Chicago’s a dangerous home underdog with Matt Forte in the backfield at Soldier Field Thursday night.

Perfect Record
Dallas has won all five of its games when playing away from the Lone Star State this season, which is important to consider when making your Week 14 NFL betting picks, as it looks to move past a forgettable performance at home against the Philadelphia Eagles on Thanksgiving Day. The Cowboys have been led by quarterback Tony Romo’s play away from AT&T Stadium, as he’s thrown for 12 touchdowns and just a single interception in that situation.

Over the last two-plus seasons, the squad is 1-4 SUATS versus NFC North opponents, with the OVER cashing in four of those five opportunities.
 

Hand the Ball Off
Chicago is averaging just over 23 rush attempts per game during the 2014 campaign, which can’t be ignored when looking over the NFL betting lines, as its a very low number when possessing one of the best backs in the league.

Matt Forte has averaged 149.1 yards from scrimmage over his last eight games played at this venue, as he looks to move past a career-low five rush attempts in last week’s 34-17 setback to the Detroit Lions as 7.5-point road underdogs. It’s important to point out that the franchise is 2-5 SUATS when receiving 3.5 to 9.5 points the last two-plus seasons, with the OVER going 5-2 in that situation.
 

Gaining Yards On First Down
The Cowboys are first in the NFL in averaging 6.38 yards gained on first down, with much of that success attributed to running back DeMarco Murray, who leads all players in gaining 1,427 yards on the ground through 12 games.

Dallas will want to stick to that formula, especially since Romo has compiled a dismal 13-18 SU regular-season record in the months of December and January in his career.
 

Cutting Up America’s Team
Bears quarterback Jay Cutler is a magnet for criticism due to his less-than-desirable body language on the sidelines when things go wrong, but the fan base may get behind him in this spot. Cutler has thrown for five touchdowns and zero interceptions in winning both of his career starts against Dallas—putting together a 138.2 passer rating along the way.
 

Prediction
I’m going to recommend that readers back the Bears as one of their top football picks, as the Cowboys are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games versus teams with a losing record.
 

Free NFL Pick:  Chicago Bears +4 at Bovada